29/09/2026
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60% at its September 2026 meeting.
The decision marks the fourth rate rise in 2026, following three consecutive increases earlier in the year.
The latest available ABS data showed annual CPI inflation eased to 3.5% in July, while trimmed mean inflation remained at 3.6%. Both measures were above the RBA’s 2-3% target range.
In its August minutes, the RBA said inflation remained too high and that it would remain attentive to the data and evolving risks, including the possibility of raising the cash rate again if upside inflation risks materialised.
Some economists, including ANZ, are forecasting a further 25 basis-point increase in November, which would take the cash rate to 4.85% by the end of 2026.
This remains a forecast, not a confirmed RBA decision, and may change as new economic data becomes available.
Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo, Chief Economist at PRD Real Estate, said: “At the moment, based on everything the RBA has released, we are looking at a higher interest rate environment, at least until the first quarter of 2027, with some more stabilisation in early 2027 and possibly a cash rate cut in mid-to-late 2027.”
A rate rise typically increases repayments for borrowers if their lender passes on some or all of the change. Lenders can set their own timing and pricing, so the effect will vary by lender, loan and borrower circumstances.
Mardiasmo said a further increase would mark a shift into a higher-rate environment: “That’s where the pain is really going to start because it’s not a neutral position anymore. It’s proper tightening.”
If you have a home loan and are thinking about refinancing or are planning to buy, now's the time to work out how this increase could affect your repayments, borrowing power, and plans.
Text me on 0489 305 750 to arrange a phone appointment today.