07/08/2026
Interest rate news from my inbox…
Rate outlook for today...
With oil prices back to being a factor, rate sheets this morning are quite a bit worse than yesterday, yet still not as bad as some might expect based on the escalation in the Middle East. The U.S. resumed military attacks last night, and President Trump has said the ceasefire is over and has said there will be more attacks tonight. Bonds seem to be taking this in stride though, only down a bit this morning. Still, this bears watching, and reprice risk on the day is moderate.
Rate outlook for the next 15 days...
Cautiously float, but be ready to lock if bonds start selling
The thing that is concerning here is that mortgage rates are already elevated, being quite a bit higher than they were in February when oil prices were lower like we saw earlier this week. If we see oil push back higher and rates react, there is a higher ceiling to how high we could see rates go. For now though, we want to give it a bit of time for things to play out, maybe we see some easing of tensions (but at the moment that doesn't seem likely).
Be clear, we are cautiously floating for the moment, but we need to be ready to lock if things continue to get worse.
15-to-30 Day Rate Outlook...
Cautiously float for now
Forecasting where rates will be in three to four weeks depends solely on how quickly and how violently things escalate in the Middle East and what happens with the Strait of Hormuz. Make no mistake, markets don't really care about the military actions anymore, there is no flight to safety. Markets will react to ship traffic through the strait, and if traffic comes to a halt again, expect oil prices to surge and rates to move higher with them. However, if oil prices stay stable and move lower again if ship traffic resumes, mortgage rates will also ease back a bit.
Longer Term Rate Outlook (30+ days out)...
Cautiously Float
For the first time since ships started moving through the Persian Gulf, the outlook for rates 30+ days out has grown more concerning. If we see escalation, we could see even higher rates in August than we saw in May. It's too early to panic, but it isn't too early to pay attention. It will depend on how things play out over the next few days.
MARKET SNAPSHOT:
The UMBS 5.5 coupon is at 99.91, down -12bps on the day but down about -35bps from when pricing came out yesterday. Watch to see if mortgage bonds break 99.79, opening the door to fall all the way down to 99.21.
HJH