Peter Reznicek

10/11/2026

The Nasdaq ended the week slightly above its prior all-time high, while the S&P 500 finished just below. The Russell 2000 briefly broke below the confluence of its rising bottoms line, 200-day SMA, and prior swing low on Thursday, but reclaimed that support area before the close in a show of strength. The small-cap index held above support on Friday and rallied. The Dow, meanwhile, found support at its 40-week SMA the week before last and continued higher last week. The industrials are showing slightly better relative strength than small caps, but the difference remains modest.

Breadth remains a concern. On Friday, new lows nearly tripled new highs, highlighting the deterioration beneath the surface. Despite this, I continue to see plenty of constructive setups among institutional-quality leaders in semiconductors, software, biotech/pharma, communications equipment, and fiber optics. A surprising number of these leaders continue to hold up well despite the broader market’s weakening breadth.

The key question now is whether the Russell 2000 and Dow can sustain their rallies and eventually turn major overhead resistance into support. Their progress will help determine whether the broader market can confirm strength in the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

I remain approximately 30% invested and plan to add exposure as conditions warrant. If the Russell 2000 and Dow make meaningful upside progress, I’ll consider increasing my maximum exposure to 70%–80%. I’m unlikely to move to 100% or more until the small caps confirm the new highs in the other major indexes. It would be encouraging to see the Dow confirm as well, but that isn’t a requirement as long as it continues to act constructively.

For now, I’ll let the price action guide my next move. Stay selective, manage risk, and increase exposure only as the broader market confirms the strength already evident in leading growth stocks.

10/11/2026

The Nasdaq ended the week slightly above its prior all-time high, while the S&P 500 finished just below. The Russell 2000 briefly broke below the confluence of its rising bottoms line, 200-day SMA, and prior swing low on Thursday, but reclaimed that support area before the close in a show of strength. The small-cap index held above support on Friday and rallied. The Dow, meanwhile, found support at its 40-week SMA the week before last and continued higher last week. The industrials are showing slightly better relative strength than small caps, but the difference remains modest.

Breadth remains a concern. On Friday, new lows nearly tripled new highs, highlighting the deterioration beneath the surface. Despite this, I continue to see plenty of constructive setups among institutional-quality leaders in semiconductors, software, biotech/pharma, communications equipment, and fiber optics. A surprising number of these leaders continue to hold up well despite the broader market’s weakening breadth.

The key question now is whether the Russell 2000 and Dow can sustain their rallies and eventually turn major overhead resistance into support. Their progress will help determine whether the broader market can confirm strength in the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

I remain approximately 30% invested and plan to add exposure as conditions warrant. If the Russell 2000 and Dow make meaningful upside progress, I’ll consider increasing my maximum exposure to 70%–80%. I’m unlikely to move to 100% or more until the small caps confirm the new highs in the other major indexes. It would be encouraging to see the Dow confirm as well, but that isn’t a requirement as long as it continues to act constructively.

For now, I’ll let the price action guide my next move. Stay selective, manage risk, and increase exposure only as the broader market confirms the strength already evident in leading growth stocks.

10/08/2026

I put this out every morning before the market opens. Here's a free one. Check out the video inside, I feel it puts things into "perspective" nicely.
shadowtrader.com/premarket-pers…

The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESU19 and /NQU19 Futures are posted free every morningin the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.WindoTrader 702-800-4628 Speak with Terry about the ShadowTrader discount Key Levels for Today2984.50RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this...

10/01/2026

NAZ: ''test reject", aka, Wyckoff upthrust, aka Bull trap, aka Trader Vic 2B, aka Turtle soup...semantics!

09/30/2026

Bull markets will often give newbies the hot hand.

Thinking they're magic, they'll ramp up risk, reap big losses, and take on more risk just to break even.

End result: They blow up.

09/30/2026

The major indexes remain divergent. Only the Nasdaq closed higher today, continuing to consolidate constructively just below its prior all-time highs. The S&P 500 slipped slightly and closed below its key short-term moving averages, but found support at the confluence of its 50-day SMA and rising bottoms line just below. The Russell 2000 made a lower low, while the Dow held just above its prior swing low.

As discussed in the last report, this type of divergence between large- and small-cap indexes has occurred many times before. Sometimes small caps eventually catch up and confirm strength in the larger-cap indexes; other times, weakness in small caps eventually pulls the larger-cap indexes lower. The divergence itself doesn’t tell us which outcome is coming, so the price action from here remains important.

Breadth also continued to deteriorate, with 426 new lows versus just 84 new highs this afternoon. This has been an issue for roughly a month and helps explain why the Nasdaq has held up better than the small caps. The index’s largest-weighted names—including NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, MU, and AMD—have also been among its strongest performers, providing significant support.

On the positive side, the health and breadth of the market’s traditional high-growth leadership continued to improve, supported by a healthy rotational process. That remains encouraging, even as the broader market continues to show signs of weakness beneath the surface.

I’m still carrying modest exposure at 25%, with tight, logical sell stops. If the market ultimately rolls over, I should be able to walk away with little to no damage. However, with the continued bifurcation between large- and small-cap indexes and several weeks of new lows outnumbering new highs, it’s difficult to consider the deck hot.

For now, I’ll keep my maximum exposure at 30% until these issues resolve. If the major indexes resolve higher, leadership continues to broaden, and I continue making progress, I’ll add exposure. If not, I’m comfortable remaining lightly invested or in cash. Stay patient, let the market earn your exposure, and wait for the setups worth taking.

09/30/2026

Our "edge." We Key on LEADERS breaking out of simple bases with volume confirmation. And, we RIDE TRENDS. Best way to make bigger money. With less hassle!

09/30/2026

From IBD: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) earned positive marks from Wall Street analysts for its planned $8.2 billion acquisition of artificial intelligence model builder World Labs. $AMD stock rose on Tuesday. *Yes, we own AMD from lower.

09/30/2026

Chart patterns REPEAT! OVER AND OVER. We KNOW what to Key on! $SNDK from January of this year. MONSTER RUN. $SNDK was owned.

09/30/2026

We TRAIN OUR EYES on what's important in the charts. Note the marked bar? Good bar or bad bar? And then, knowing that tells WHAT we need to see in order to buy NVDA? We KNOW what to Key on!