05/29/2026
Rates are lower for the second week in a row. Much of the last two weeks has followed the same pattern:
Morning headlines claiming a peace deal as been reached, oil sells off, rates follow oil lower. Afternoon headlines denying a peace deal, oil and rates move higher, but highs are lower and lows are lower.
Crude oil closed May down 17%, which is good news for future inflation reports. On Thursday, we received April’s PCE Inflation report. Both Headline and Core came in lower-than-expected MoM, +0.4% vs +0.5% expected and +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Between rumors of peace deals and a reasonable PCE inflation report, the 10-Year Treasury failed its recent breakout above resistance levels. It’s too early for a victory lap, but there is enough for optimism.
