10/22/2026
September = bad
October = good (so far)
even though the headlines might be saying otherwise, 9 out of the last 12 days have been positive for rates.
All the talk when it comes to rates getting better or worse has been about inflation and employment.
But for the past couple years, I've had this theory that the only thing that will really move rates lower would be the super hot stock market/AI trade unwinding, thus causing a flight to safety to the bond market.
So far that is exactly what's been playing out.
As somebody that has been heavily investing in said AI trade, I'm trying not to look at my investment accounts today, but I'll gladly take lower rates over a hot stock market.
Buyers have already been getting crazy discounts on the purchase price lately, but if we can get these mortgage rates down a little, it could go a long way towards fixing the housing affordability issue.
Wouldn't surprise me to see the 10 year treasury pop back up to 5.3 at some point, but gotta say, I like what I'm seeing lately.
Do I think the AI trade is over? Definitely not. Do I think this means rates will stay on a downward trend for the next couple years? Nope, not necessarily. Geopolitical stuff, midterm elections, profit taking and other forces are all at work currently which, in my opinion, makes me think this window of lower rates we could be moving into might be short-lived, but we'll take what we can get!
