05/18/2026
📉 Rate Recap & Outlook: Still elevated, but today gave us something to watch 👀
Rates have been under serious pressure lately. Last week’s 10yr Treasury hit its highest closing level since early 2025, which tells you how tough this environment has been. Today was a rollercoaster, markets opened with cautious optimism around peace talk developments, then headlines pushed back all afternoon, and THEN Trump posted at 3pm that a planned military operation was cancelled and that serious negotiations are now underway. Bonds rallied on that news and rates finished the day essentially unchanged. Not a win, but not a loss either. The tone heading into the rest of the week feels more hopeful than it has in a while.
🔑 3 Things I’m Watching This Week:
• Iran Negotiations: This is still the whole ballgame. Trump’s 3pm post that a deal “will be made” is the most direct signal we’ve seen yet. If talks progress, expect rates to respond quickly and meaningfully. One negative headline though and we go the other way fast.
• Oil Prices: Crude dropped on today’s news and briefly dipped under $100. Oil cooling down = inflation pressure easing = better environment for mortgage rates. Every dollar lower matters right now.
• Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes: The Fed’s April meeting notes drop Wednesday afternoon and could shake things up mid-week. Any language around inflation will put upward pressure on rates regardless of what’s happening overseas.
Rates are still elevated. But this week has more potential for positive movement than we’ve seen in a while. If you’re closing soon, locking now protects you. If you have time on your side, we’re watching every headline and can move fast when the window opens.
