10/23/2025
Home Builder Confidence Hits 6-Month High
Week of October 13, 2025 in Review
Home builder sentiment rose after months of stagnation, while the Fed’s Beige Book offers key insights policymakers may rely on as the shutdown delays other critical economic data. Read on for more key takeaways.
Home Builder Confidence Reaches Highest Level Since April
Beige Book Gains Importance Amid Shutdown Delays
Family Hack of the Week
What to Look for This Week
Technical Picture
Home Builder Confidence Reaches Highest Level Since April
Home builder sentiment rose 5 points to 37 in October, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) – its highest level since April. Although the index remains below the key 50 mark that signals growth, this uptick marks a nice improvement after confidence hovered between 32 and 34 since May.
All three index components saw gains: buyer traffic and current sales each rose 4 points, to 25 and 38, respectively. Most notably, expectations for future sales climbed above 50 into expansion territory for the first time since January.
What’s the bottom line? While challenges in the housing market persist, easing mortgage rates have provided some relief for affordability. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz called the October rise in builder sentiment “a positive signal for 2026,” aligning with forecasts for increased single-family home construction next year.
Beige Book Gains Importance Amid Shutdown Delays
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity has “changed little on balance since the previous report.” Of the 12 Fed districts, three reported slight to modest growth, five noted no change, and four experienced a slight softening – marking a shift from the last report, where zero districts said activity was contracting.
Key takeaways include a decline in consumer spending, particularly among lower-income and middle-income households. Prices continued to rise and many businesses face a difficult choice: either absorb higher input costs to stay competitive or pass them on to consumers, potentially dampening demand.
Employment levels have remained relatively stable, but more companies are beginning to reduce staff through layoffs or attrition. These job cuts are tied to softer demand, ongoing economic uncertainty, and increased investment in artificial intelligence.
What’s the bottom line? The Beige Book, released eight times a year ahead of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, provides qualitative insights from all 12 Fed districts and offers a snapshot of economic conditions across the country. This edition carries added importance ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 29.
Normally, the Fed would weigh its interest rate decisions alongside key government data such as inflation and employment reports. However, with the ongoing government shutdown delaying some of those indicators, policymakers may place greater emphasis on the Beige Book’s findings to guide their next move.
Markets are currently expecting the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points, mirroring the September cut, as signs of labor market weakness persist despite inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.
As a quick reminder, when the Fed changes rates, it’s adjusting the Federal Funds Rate – a short-term rate that banks use to lend to one another. This rate doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but it does influence them, along with other economic factors.
Family Hack of the Week
Celebrate National Apple Month and National Apple Day (October 21) with these easy and delicious Apple Turnovers from Food Network – perfect for a cozy fall treat and makes 8 pastries.
Preheat your oven to 400 degrees Fahrenheit. In a bowl, combine 1 teaspoon grated orange zest and 3 tablespoons freshly squeezed orange juice. Peel, core, and dice 3 tart apples (like Granny Smith) into 3/4-inch pieces and toss them with the juice and zest to prevent browning. Add 3 tablespoons dried cherries, 3 tablespoons sugar, 1 tablespoon all-purpose flour, 1/4 teaspoon cinnamon, 1/8 teaspoon nutmeg, and a pinch of salt.
Lightly flour a surface and roll out 2 sheets of defrosted puff pastry into 12-inch squares. Cut each into 4 smaller squares. Brush the edges of each with egg wash (1 egg beaten with 1 tablespoon water), then spoon about 1/3 cup of filling onto half of each square. Fold into triangles and press the edges with a fork to seal.
Transfer to a parchment-lined baking sheet, brush the tops with egg wash, sprinkle with sugar, and cut two small slits in each. Bake for about 20 minutes, until golden and puffed. Serve warm.
What to Look for This Week
The National Association of REALTORS® will release September’s Existing Home Sales report on Thursday. Despite ongoing delays in economic data due to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to publish September’s Consumer Price Index on Friday, as it's essential for calculating the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.
Technical Picture
Mortgage Bonds ended last week trading in a narrow range, with support at their 25-day moving average and resistance at the 101.31 ceiling. Notably, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% late last week, and if this level holds, it could be an encouraging signal for the direction of yields going forward.
