WinCap Financial

10/16/2026

This week, we executed more than $50 million in bond trades at WinCap Financial as our views on the interest rate environment evolved.

Recent inflation data have made us more cautious about how quickly rates can move lower. That has implications for how much interest rate risk we want in portfolios.

We reduced duration from approximately 4.5 to 4 years. In plain English, that means roughly 11% less sensitivity to changes in yields, all else equal.

It’s a measured adjustment. Lower duration reduces the impact of rising yields, but also gives up some potential appreciation if yields fall. Both sides matter.

We also added exposure to catastrophe bonds. These securities compensate investors for taking on defined natural-disaster risks, introducing another source of income and a different driver of returns.

10/15/2026

SpaceX is priced as an AI infrastructure platform with a world-class telecom business attached, not as a rocket company. At ~93x trailing sales, the valuation already assumes that transformation succeeds. The business is real, but the multiple is a forecast, and most of the risk sits in the gap between the two.

10/14/2026

This morning’s inflation report gave the Fed very little to celebrate.

Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, pushing annual inflation to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August.

Gasoline jumped 9.1%, accounting for more than half the monthly increase. Housing costs also moved higher. Your gas tank apparently didn’t get the memo about inflation cooling.

10/12/2026

can consumers keep spending and companies protect profits without keeping inflation elevated? This week gives us several pieces of that answer

Monday Stocks are open, while the bond market takes the day off.

Tuesday brings JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Wells Fargo. Watch credit quality, loan demand and what executives say about consumers.

Wednesday is the big inflation checkpoint: CPI at 8:30 Eastern. Expectations are for up 3.7% vs 3.4%. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and ASML also report, followed by the Fed’s Beige Book.

10/10/2026

09/28/2026

Tuesday brings the August JOLTS report, providing an updated look at job openings and labor demand. The main event arrives Friday with the September jobs report, which will be closely watched following August’s surprisingly strong 162,000 payroll gain. The report is scheduled for Friday.

Micron will be the most important report of the week. Micron provides another read on demand for the high-bandwidth memory required to power advanced AI systems. Options markets imply it will move close to 9% upon earnings.

09/20/2026

My contribution to the "should you bring an iced coffee to a job interview?" discourse. Largely I think the answer is no, mostly because it can lead to other unforced errors in an interview with no upside.

09/14/2026

The Fed's centrality this week, with a big weekday market event on Wednesday, intensifies.

Fed's two-day meeting Tuesday concludes with a rate decision, anticipated to raise rates by quarter-point.

Following sticky inflation, jobs' boost, and oil over $100, investors closely monitor Warsh for a one-hike or more aggressive move.

Wednesday also presents retail sales, reinforcing consumer strength.

Lennar and Salesforce, housing and AI adoption, respectively, round out the earnings landscape.

The crucial market event lingers on Wednesday, as the Fed's message shapes

09/11/2026

Market breaks losing streak, amid hot inflation print. Inflation came in at 3.4%, much of the inflation is being pulled from energy and data center demand. Raising rates is a pea brained idea. The market had baked in a hotter print so today's numbers offered some relief for the market, while continuing to pressure the Fed.