06/04/2025
🌧 NO CHANGE TO PRIME RATE
This morning's prime rate review wasn't the bright and sunny variety. I could keep it light and spin the positive of no change to prime rate for variable mortgage rate holders, but I think a realistic take is what's important here, even if we don't want to hear it.
Uncertainty. Tiff Macklem used this word no less than 7 times in his opening statement at today's prime rate review. It's no surprise that prime rate did not budge as UNCERTAINTY in so many forms is still plaguing our economic outlook.
Excluding the slight discount from the carbon tax elimination, inflation numbers in April increased, at the same as our unemployment numbers and housing activity worsened. Rising inflation and slowing economy apply two opposing pressures to prime rate, essentially stalemating its movement.
Moving forward, Macklem stressed that the current trade war's unknown tariff outcomes are the biggest cause of uncertainty for our economy. If most tariffs are lifted, we could avoid a recession and inflation would be within the realm we want it to be. If tariffs escalate, Canada could fall into recession and experience further inflation increases. He went on to state that businesses have already inadvertently incurred higher costs by having to go into different markets to find alternative suppliers and our inflation numbers have yet to reflect these costs. In the Q&A portion of the review, Macklem commented that he'd like to see us fortify ourselves more by increasing our "east/west" trade (across our own country by eliminating unnecessary interprovincial hurdles) opposed to "north/south" trade with the US.
See? Not too much sunshine on a federal level - but Grande Prairie always seems to march to its own beat. Yes, rent costs are wild and the grocery store is too... but there are some positives: our housing market is still clipping along, and although it's not a boom, work is still in abundance here in comparison to much of the country. A little bit of local ☀️
Finally, a reminder on what this prime rate announcement means for mortgage holders:
📎VARIABLE RATE HOLDERS: No changes to prime, no change to your rate or payments.
📎FIXED RATE HOLDERS: Prime does not ever directly affect your current term and rate, so no changes for you, either.
How does this affect those looking at new mortgages, renewals and refinances? Let's recap how different rate types work.
📎 Fixed rates are based on bonds. Fixed rates are static and do not change for their entire term. Bonds have been a WILD ride these past months - we saw fixed rates go UP, NOT down last week as yields spiked. As always, HOLD YOUR RATES so you are protected from this for the rate hold period.
📎 Variable/Adjustable rates are based on prime rate. When prime rate moves, your rate moves as well, and depending on whether you are in a true "variable" or an "adjustable", your payment may move with any changes. Prime rate is set by the BoC and based on economic factors as per above. No change to prime today, but it's truly anyone's guess as to whether economic downturn or inflation will push prime up or down from here.
Until next time. 🙂