07/22/2026
Hello all...
The market got bought today after a nice $4 gap up on SPY, but the price action and candles are saying that these rallies are MM manufactured. There is a lot of red volume or selling volume, and I think most people are looking to go into other investments right now. Here's my trading systems take... It scans every fundamental you could think of. Bare with me
The first hard correction to the thesis is important: today was not simply a manufactured gap that faded. SPY opened near $746.27, dipped to $744.19, then closed at $748.28 near the high—so buyers did add roughly $2 after the cash open. But the rally’s quality was weak: only 245 S&P names advanced, equal-weight RSP gained just 0.16%, and SPY volume was about 34.3 million versus roughly 62.6 million average. That makes it a narrow, low-participation rebound—not proof of a healthy new leg.
What today actually showed
SPY:
Previous close: $742.09
Open: $746.29 — a $4.20 gap
Low: $744.19
High: $749.04
Close: $748.28, near the session high
Volume: 34.32 million shares
SPY dipped after the opening gap, but buyers defended $744.19 and pushed it almost $2 above the open. SPX similarly closed in the top 13% of its daily range at 7,509.20. That is legitimate intraday buying—not a gap that was immediately distributed. SPY historical data and SPX prices
However, the volume comparison supports my larger concern:
Session SPY result Volume
Friday −0.99% 62.65M
Monday −0.16%, major intraday fade 50.42M
Tuesday +0.83% 34.32M
Each recent down session carried substantially more SPY volume than today’s rebound. Average volume on the two red sessions was roughly 56.5M, about 65% higher than today. That is the strongest evidence for your argument: selling has occurred with more commitment than the rebound buying.
The Hypothesis is: Remain bearish
Gaps up are seeing low participation from all types of investors
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