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10/18/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld explores the recent slide in the Canadian dollar and the challenge it poses for the Bank of Canada. While a weaker loonie can lift inflation and support export growth, he notes that the bigger issue is the widening gap between a U.S. economy buoyed by AI-driven investment and a Canadian economy that may be less able to absorb higher interest rates.

10/11/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld looks at how polls and surveys can sometimes give a misleading read on the economy.

He argues that unweighted consumer and business sentiment measures may miss where spending power is concentrated or where sector-specific stress is most severe, a risk that matters as the Bank of Canada weighs mixed signals ahead of its next rate decision.

10/04/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld explores the widening gap between surging U.S. corporate earnings and far more subdued economic growth. He argues that a rising share of income flowing to profits, combined with AI-driven spending and a diminished labour share, is boosting earnings today, but could eventually weaken the household demand needed to sustain broader economic growth.

09/27/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld looks at why markets have moved to price in much more rate tightening than central banks themselves have projected. At the same time, he notes that higher long-term bond yields are already putting pressure on interest-sensitive parts of the economy, which could ultimately reduce the need for policy rates to rise as far as investors now expect.

09/20/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld assesses the Fed’s unusually optimistic view that inflation can ease back to target without a rise in unemployment, while warning that higher energy prices, elevated mortgage rates, and slowing interest-sensitive sectors could make that soft landing harder to achieve than policymakers suggest.

09/13/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld reflects on the 25th anniversary of 9/11 and the enduring Canada-U.S. partnership, while noting that renewed Middle East tensions and higher energy prices may prompt the Fed to move rates higher sooner than expected.

09/06/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld notes that the US and Japan are facing a common challenge: rising long-term bond yields and tighter fiscal constraints. With slower growth and higher borrowing costs, managing government debt may become much harder.

08/30/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld makes the case that, even after last week’s breakdown in trade talks, Canada still needs to stay at the table with the U.S.

While reducing that dependence is an important long-term goal, his view is that the immediate priority is to keep dialogue open and work with U.S. allies who also have a stake in avoiding further escalation.

08/23/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld argues that the U.S. midterms are unlikely to materially alter trade policy, given that much of the Trump agenda has been advanced through executive orders.

This helps explain why Canada has not seen the post-midterm period as a particularly promising window for tariff negotiations.

08/16/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld notes that despite the recent calm in markets, the outlook for the Persian Gulf and oil prices remains highly uncertain.

He argues that the current stability in crude should not be taken as reassurance, since prices could move lower if a deal is reached, or rise sharply if the standoff persists.

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10180-101 Street, 1800 Manulife Place
Edmonton, AB
T5J3S4

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