Forge Advisory Group at CIBC Wood Gundy

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08/23/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld argues that the U.S. midterms are unlikely to materially alter trade policy, given that much of the Trump agenda has been advanced through executive orders.

This helps explain why Canada has not seen the post-midterm period as a particularly promising window for tariff negotiations.

08/16/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld notes that despite the recent calm in markets, the outlook for the Persian Gulf and oil prices remains highly uncertain.

He argues that the current stability in crude should not be taken as reassurance, since prices could move lower if a deal is reached, or rise sharply if the standoff persists.

08/09/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Avery Shenfield highlights the surprising rebound in Canada’s export sector, with real export volumes reaching a new high in Q2 and helping support GDP growth.

While energy and some US-bound exports have led the recovery, ongoing tariff risks, weak manufacturing investment, and capacity constraints suggest the momentum may be difficult to sustain.

08/02/2026

In this week’s The Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld examines what the bond market may be signaling about the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, and unpacks one of the key unanswered questions from Chair Warsh’s press conference on inflation, growth and the likelihood of further rate hikes.

07/26/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Benjamin Tal notes that Canada’s recent population decline, as reported by Statistics Canada, appears dramatic after years of rapid growth.

However, he argues that much of the drop reflects tighter policies on non-permanent residents and how expired visa holders are counted, rather than a clear sign of lasting demographic or economic weakness.

07/19/2026

In this week’s Week Ahead, Benjamin Tal says U.S. economic resilience should not be mistaken for strength. As inflation eases, the Fed may need to look beyond the headline numbers and focus on underlying fragility.

07/12/2026

In this week’s The Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld looks at why preserving CUSMA still matters for Canada’s economy, alongside key upcoming market drivers including the Bank of Canada decision and important U.S. inflation and consumer data.

07/05/2026

In this week’s The Week Ahead, Avery Shenfeld explores whether AI-driven inflation in the US is likely to be transitory, analyzing its impact on labour markets, supply chains and Federal Reserve policy. He also covers Canadian employment trends, the influence of major events like the census and World Cup and provides forecasts for key economic data releases in both Canada and the US.

06/28/2026

In this Week's Week Ahead, Chair Kevin Warsh’s push to rethink the Fed’s “dot plot” takes center stage, given its track record of unreliable rate predictions and the volatility it creates.

With so much uncertainty in the economic outlook, we believe it’s more important to focus on incoming data, like labour and CPI reports, rather than relying on the dots for guidance.

06/21/2026

In this week’s The Week Ahead, Benjamin Tal highlights the risks associated with expanding rent control measures, referencing Manitoba’s Bill 13. He notes that while rent control is well-intentioned, it often leads to reduced supply and quality of rental housing.

Tal proposes that tax deductibility is a more effective way to support renters than artificially capping rents.

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