26/10/2026
26 October : Weekly Market View by QORE Finance
By Clive Ponsonby, Head of FX, QORE Finance
Equities and Geopolitics
Equities were under pressure again last week as the rotation out of Tech/AI and into blue chips continues, with Meta results leading to another sell-off. French bond spreads over Germany widened out again, it seemed to be more about position liquidation than any fresh macro news although the budget stalemate continues for now and protests are still a concern.
In the Middle East there have been more Houthi and Iranian attacks on oil tankers and infrastructure, Qatari intermediaries are in Tehran to try and smooth things over but there are no visible signs of progress and as we approach the mid-terms it seems more likely we will just wait until those are over for the next stage of the conflict.
In Brazil Lula won the presidential run-off slightly unexpectedly, although as we pointed out last week the polls were within the margin of error. USD/BRL is opening the week 10% higher with local equities also expected to sell off around 20%.
The Alberta independence referendum was soundly defeated which lifted Cad back to the 1.40 level and with a hike likely this week from the BoC and no change from the Fed, interest rate differentials have been narrowing.
Anthropic just announced their IPO which will happen mid November, we get some big results from tech firms as well as several central bank meetings, making this an eventful week ahead.
FX Markets
The Euro was the weakest major currency last week as French bond spreads widened further, and have doubled in little over a month. The dollar lost its shine also as commodity currencies (Nok, Aud, Cad) and safe havens (Chf, Joy) traded well. UK headline and core inflation data were hotter than expected but a hike from the BoE next week was already the most likely outcome so this was just cemented by the latest data. The budget could be a bigger driver for the currency with the reaction in Gilts being closely watched.
Canada has been more interesting as a hike this Wednesday has gone from less than 20% chance to over 80% in a couple of weeks, which has boosted the Loonie back to key levels. Chinese GDP was above expectations and the Yuan continues to strengthen, albeit at a slow and heavily managed pace.
Commodities and Crypto
Oil prices made fresh highs last week as the situation in the Middle East escalated again and refining capacity is still the bottleneck and Oil transit costs get more and more expensive. There is little reason to think things will get meaningfully better until we get beyond the mid-terms and the US’ next move is clear.
Gold and Silver were under pressure in a week where other safe havens traded well, even with yields lower: the market is caught long and liquidating positions at the moment and that is a drag on precious metals for now.
Crypto was trading badly having failed to hold on to gains but it was more a case of consolidation and it is following other risk assets for now.
Week ahead
Central bank meetings this week will be the main highlight, although the big three (the Fed, ECB and BOJ) are all expected to leave rates on hold, rather than hike at consecutive meetings, but the market is pricing a hike for all three in December.
We also get the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of NZ which are both expected to hike rates. On the data front we get US Q3 GDP which is expected to print above 3% and Tokyo CPI also running hot. Key Earnings this week are GOOG and MSFT on Wednesday and AMZN, INTL and SNDK on Thursday.
Finally the UK budget on Wednesday will be the main event for Sterling, but the announcements are likely to play second fiddle to the OBR forecasts which dictate how the fiscal picture is expected to evolve and heavily influences government spending.
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