Aramis Capital

Aramis Capital Aramis Capital(Pvt) Ltd is a registered Asset management company that seeks to establish a world class investment management firm in Zimbabwe and beyond.

A currency that holds steady through an oil price shock is doing more work than the headline suggests. When global ener...
08/09/2026

A currency that holds steady through an oil price shock is doing more work than the headline suggests. When global energy prices move sharply and a currency does not move with them, that stability is usually the result of active management, reserve deployment, or genuine underlying demand for the currency, not an accident. Understanding which of the three it is changes how much confidence you should place in the stability continuing.

Export duty waivers on commodities are usually a signal about domestic processing capacity, not generosity. A governmen...
07/09/2026

Export duty waivers on commodities are usually a signal about domestic processing capacity, not generosity. A government does not waive duty on raw exports because it wants less revenue. It waives it because domestic processing and smelting capacity cannot yet absorb what is being produced, and forcing the issue would simply leave the material stranded. The waiver is a temporary bridge, and the date it expires tells you how much time the market believes that bridge actually has.

A sovereign credit upgrade changes the cost of capital before it changes anything else. The upgrade itself does not imm...
04/09/2026

A sovereign credit upgrade changes the cost of capital before it changes anything else. The upgrade itself does not immediately alter growth, employment, or the current account. What it does immediately is lower the rate at which the government, and by extension many private borrowers in that market, can access capital. That is a real and immediate effect, even before the underlying economic story catches up to the improved rating.

A market that rallies while foreign investors are net sellers is telling you two different stories at once. Domestic de...
03/09/2026

A market that rallies while foreign investors are net sellers is telling you two different stories at once. Domestic demand is absorbing more than outside capital is willing to hold, which can mean genuine local conviction, or it can mean external investors are quietly repricing country risk in a way the local price has not caught up to yet. Both readings are plausible. The only way to know which one is right is to look at what is actually driving the buying.

New on the Aramis Capital Insights page. On 20 August, SECZIM issued a directive establishing an approved framework for...
02/09/2026

New on the Aramis Capital Insights page. On 20 August, SECZIM issued a directive establishing an approved framework for registering and coding secondary market transactions in Zimbabwean government securities, with FINSEC positioned to operate it. This is quiet infrastructure work, the kind that does not make headlines but that compounds over time into a market with greater depth and greater transparency. It is a genuine step toward a more formally organised and legible bond market. In our latest article, we look at what the directive actually covers, what it changes, and what it means for anyone active in this market. Read: What the SECZIM Directive Means for Zimbabwe's Bond Market aramiscapital.org/insights

Foreign exchange reserves are a buffer, and buffers only prove their worth when they are drawn on. A country holding re...
01/09/2026

Foreign exchange reserves are a buffer, and buffers only prove their worth when they are drawn on. A country holding reserves well above its statutory minimum is not being cautious for its own sake. It is buying itself room to absorb an external shock, a commodity price swing, a currency squeeze, a period of capital flight, without being forced into an immediate policy response. The size of the buffer tells you how much room the country actually has.

The difference between an investment thesis and a market opinion is whether you have specified what would prove you wron...
28/08/2026

The difference between an investment thesis and a market opinion is whether you have specified what would prove you wrong. An opinion can survive any outcome because it was never precise enough to be falsified. A thesis makes a specific, checkable claim about what should happen and why, which means it can actually be tested against reality rather than just defended after the fact.

Zambia's copper exposure makes it a useful lens for understanding how commodity linked African economies actually behave...
27/08/2026

Zambia's copper exposure makes it a useful lens for understanding how commodity linked African economies actually behave under global demand cycles. When copper prices rise, the effects show up in the currency, in government revenue, and eventually in consumer demand, but not all at once and not in the same order every cycle. Understanding the transmission sequence matters more than knowing the copper price itself.

New on the Aramis Capital Insights page. Treasury bills are treated as the safe, boring part of most portfolios. In Zim...
26/08/2026

New on the Aramis Capital Insights page. Treasury bills are treated as the safe, boring part of most portfolios. In Zimbabwe, that assumption does not hold in the way investors expect, because sovereign risk and currency risk move together here rather than separately. In our latest article, we look at what treasury bills actually do, and do not do, in a Zimbabwean context, and what role they should genuinely play in a portfolio. Read: The Role of Treasury Bills in a Zimbabwean Portfolio aramiscapital.org/insights

Correlation between two assets is not fixed. It is a conditional relationship that changes depending on the environment....
25/08/2026

Correlation between two assets is not fixed. It is a conditional relationship that changes depending on the environment. Two assets can move independently for years and then move together sharply during a specific type of stress. The correlation you calculated from five years of historical data may simply reflect five years without the specific stress event that would reveal the true relationship.

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