06/09/2024
THE 2024/2025 RAINFALL SEASON IS LIKELY TO EXHIBIT THE FOLLOWING CHARACTERISTICS:
1. NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST PARTS OF ZAMBIA, WITH EPISODIC HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS.
2. NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
3. ONSET OF RAINS IN OCTOBER OVER WESTERN PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF LUAPULA AND NORTHWESTERN PROVINCES.
4. DELAYED ONSET OF RAINS IN MID-DECEMBER OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PARTS, INCLUDING LUANGWA, CHIRUNDU, GWEMBE, AND SINAZONGWE DISTRICTS.
5. CESSATION OF RAINS IN MARCH 2025 OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF AND BY THE END OF APRIL OVER EASTERN, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF LUAPULA AND NORTHERN PROVINCES.
HERE IS THE DETAILED FORECAST AND KEY RAINFALL PATTERNS:
1. OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, AND DECEMBER (OND): MOST OF ZAMBIA WILL LIKELY RECEIVE NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN DISTRICTS OF EASTERN, MUCHINGA, NORTHERN, AND LUAPULA PROVINCES MAY EXPERIENCE NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD.
2. NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, AND JANUARY (NDJ): THE NORTHERN DISTRICTS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL, WHILE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY CAN EXPECT NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL.
3. DECEMBER, JANUARY, AND FEBRUARY (DJF): NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NATIONWIDE, WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
4. JANUARY, FEBRUARY, AND MARCH (JFM): NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE 2024/2025 RAINY SEASON, AREAS THAT ARE PROJECTED TO RECEIVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL MAY EXPERIENCE:
1. DRY SPELLS
2. INCREASE CHANCE OF AGRICULTURE PESTS AND DISEASES
AREAS THAT ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN A PARTICULAR PERIOD MAY EXPERIENCE.
1. FLOODS/FLASH FLOODS ESPECIALLY IN PRONE AREAS;
2. FUNGAL AND WATER BORNE DISEASES SUCH AS CHOLERA, DYSENTERY AND TYPHOID;
3. INCREASE IN RATES OF MALARIA TRANSMISSION;
4. INFRASTRUCTURAL DAMAGE ESPECIALLY TO CIVIL STRUCTURES SUCH AS ROADS, BRIDGES AND CULVERTS;
5. OCCURRENCE OF AGRICULTURAL PESTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
GENERALLY, THE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SET BY END OF NOVEMBER 2024 IN MOST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. NEVERTHELESS, THE NORTH-WESTERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF ZAMBIA ARE LIKELY TO START EXPERIENCING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS BY OCTOBER.
AS YOU MAY BE AWARE, IN SOME SEASONS, RAINS BEGIN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. FARMERS ARE, THEREFORE, ADVISED TO STORE THEIR HARVESTED CROPS PROPERLY TO AVOID DAMAGE.
IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT IN EVERY SEASON, DRY SPELLS OCCUR AND IN CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES, LEADS TO CROP LOSS.
Credit: Ministry of Green Economy and Environment - Zambia
