28/08/2026
𝑴𝒆𝒕𝒆𝒐𝒓𝒐𝒍𝒐𝒈𝒊𝒔𝒕 𝑨𝒏𝒏𝒆𝒕𝒕𝒆 𝑩𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒂 𝒔𝒉𝒆𝒅𝒔 𝒔𝒐𝒎𝒆 𝒍𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕 𝒐𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒎𝒂𝒋𝒐𝒓 𝒄𝒐𝒍𝒅-𝒘𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓 𝒔𝒚𝒔𝒕𝒆𝒎 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒊𝒓𝒔𝒕 𝒘𝒆𝒆𝒌 𝒐𝒇 𝑺𝒆𝒑𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓
There has been a lot of talk about a major weather system that could affect parts of Southern Africa during the first week of September, and with so many different posts and forecast maps doing the rounds, I think it is important to explain what we are actually seeing at this stage.
𝟏. 𝐈𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐰𝐞 𝐛𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐝?
Yes, there is definitely a weather system expected to approach Southern Africa during the first week of September.
The confusion at the moment is really around what type of system this is. Some people are calling it a cyclone, others a cold front, and then there is also talk of a cut-off low.
So, let’s get into the science for a moment, but keep it simple.
By Wednesday, 2 September, we do have a normal cold front approaching South Africa. The difference here is what could happen higher up in the atmosphere.
Normally, weather systems move from west to east across South Africa with the westerly winds and jet stream. In this case, an area of low pressure around 5 to 6 km above the ground could actually separate, or “cut itself off”, from that normal westerly flow.
This is where the term cut-off low comes from.
Once this upper-air low becomes separated from the main flow, it can move more slowly and interact with the surface low associated with the cold front.
This can then result in more widespread or more intense weather than we would normally see with a passing cold front.
It is also important to say that just because satellite images show a large swirl of cloud approaching South Africa, it does not mean we are dealing with a tropical cyclone. A cut-off low is a very different weather system.
𝟐. 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐦𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐬𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥?
At Vox Weather, we are always very cautious about posting detailed snow forecasts more than a week ahead of an event.
Weather models can change quite dramatically, especially with a cut-off low, and even a small shift in the system can completely change where the snow, rain and coldest conditions eventually occur.
At the moment, we are seeing the possibility of light snow mainly over parts of the southern Drakensberg and Lesotho, but nothing at this stage that should cause panic.
That could still change significantly over the next few days.
For that reason, we will only issue a more detailed snow forecast closer to the event, with our first full forecast expected on Monday, 31 August.
Why can the forecast change so much?
Cut-off lows are very difficult to predict far in advance.
A small change in the position, strength, speed or moisture supply of the system can completely change where the heaviest rain, strongest winds and snow eventually fall.
Snow is even more sensitive because you need cold air, moisture and precipitation to all come together in exactly the right place at exactly the right time.
A small temperature change could mean rain instead of snow, or even no precipitation at all.
That is why we always advise people to be very careful with dramatic snowfall maps shared more than a week in advance.
𝟑. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫𝐬?
A lot of the attention at the moment is on the possible rain and snow, but there are a few other risks that we are also watching quite closely.
The system could bring significant rainfall to parts of the Cape from around 3 to 6 September, depending on its final track.
At the moment, some of the bigger potential concerns include:
*Hail*: Very cold air higher up in the atmosphere could create unstable conditions and increase the chance of hail over parts of the western interior.
*Strong winds*: At this stage, I would actually argue that the wind is one of the biggest risks with this system.
The setup is similar in some ways to the cut-off low we experienced on 11 May, when exceptionally strong winds affected the Western Cape and flights were diverted from Cape Town International Airport.
We could again see very strong to damaging winds, especially over exposed parts of the western interior and along the coast. This could make driving difficult, bring down branches or other loose objects, and create very dangerous boating conditions.
For me, this is definitely one of the main things we need to watch as the forecast becomes clearer over the next few days.
*High seas*: Large waves and strong onshore winds could lead to very rough seas and possibly some coastal impacts along parts of the southern coastline.
*Heavy rain*: If the system slows down, some areas could receive prolonged rainfall, which could increase the risk of localised flooding.
Again, these risks will become much clearer as we get closer to the event.
𝟒. 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐕𝐨𝐱 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐮𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬?
At Vox Weather, we believe there is a big difference between giving people an early heads-up and creating unnecessary panic.
With a cut-off low, things can change dramatically over just a few days, sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse.
We generally become much more confident in the details around three to five days ahead of the event.
So for now, this is simply a heads-up.
Our first more detailed forecast on the expected rain, snow, wind and temperatures will be posted on Monday, 31 August, with further updates to follow as the system develops.
At this stage, there is no need to panic, but it is definitely a weather system worth keeping an eye on.
