21/07/2026
*Gold Now Rallies on Ceasefire Hope With Oil Still Rising*
Gold is up today, yet still pinned at the wedge apex. No breakout yet. The 200-day near 4,400 is the bigger hurdle for Gold bulls.
Today looks contradictory. Oil, yields, and the dollar are all firming, which should pressure gold, yet gold is green. The resolution is that gold is not trading today’s conditions. It is trading the forward path: a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Tehran that would cool oil, ease inflation, and soften the Fed.
That is a second-derivative trade on ceasefire probability, and it has run three times this year. March talks, the April two-week ceasefire, the June interim deal. Each lifted gold. Each unwound.
September hike odds sit at 64% into the FOMC next week. The apex resolves on whether the ceasefire is real. Reclaim 4,100 and 4,230 opens. Lose 3,850 with the war intact and the downside break is very real.
— Dorian
