Cogent Treasury Solutions PTY LTD, Design Quarter, Sandton (2026)

31/03/2025

FX DAILY REPORT - 31 March 2025 (provided by ForexPeople)

• The Rand opened weaker against all the majors this morning.
• The ZAR weakened significantly on Friday afternoon after the ANC rejected the DA’s economic policy proposal, sparking concerns over a potential collapse of the GNU and decreasing investor confidence.
• However, the currency could see a slight recovery as new reports suggest the ANC and DA are now close to an agreement to preserve the GNU. Despite this potential rebound, the main market focus this week remains on Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday, which is expected to bring volatility across all currencies.

Todays events:

• German CPI Inflation (MoM) Prel. at 14:00 – Expected to be 0.3% compared to previous 0.4%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the EUR.
• US Chicago PMI at 15:45 – Expected to remain the same at 45.5. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the USD.

28/03/2025

FX DAILY REPORT - 28 March 2025 (provided by ForexPeople)

• The Rand opened stronger against the USD and weaker against the GBP & EUR this morning.
• Gold is currently trading at a new all-time high of $3,080.00 as investors flock to safe haven assets before Trumps reciprocal tariff announcement on the 2nd of April. Additionally, Trump has already announced that a 25% tariff on all vehicle and vehicle parts imports will take effect on the 3rd of April.
• Investors will turn their attention to today's US Core PCE Price Index at 14:30, as it serves as a key inflation measure for the Feds. A higher-than-expected reading could reinforce concerns about increasing inflation, which could lead to more rate cuts for this year.

Todays events:

• UK GDP Growth (YoY) at 9:00 – Expected to remain the same at 1.4%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the GBP.
• UK Retail Sales Growth (YoY) at 9:00 – Expected to be 0.5% compared to previous 1.0%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the GBP.
• US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) at 14:30 – Expected to be 2.7% compared to previous 2.6%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the USD.

27/03/2025

FX DAILY REPORT - 27 March 2025 (provided by ForexPeople)

• The Rand opened relatively unchanged against the USD and stronger against the GBP & EUR this morning.
• The UK CPI inflation results came in lower than expected yesterday at 2.8%, compared to the forecasted 2.9% and the previous 3.0%. This suggests that inflation is cooling, increasing the likelihood of further rate cuts in the UK.
• Additionally, the UK Spring Forecast Statement revealed plans to reduce welfare and public spending while increasing defence expenditure by £6.4 billion by 2027. These developments contributed to a weaker GBP.

Todays events:

• South African PPI Inflation (YoY) at 11:30 – Previous result was 1.1%. A higher than previous result can be seen as positive for the ZAR.
• US GDP (QoQ) at 14:30 – Expected to be 2.3% compared to previous 3.1%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the USD.
• US Initial Jobless Claims at 14:30 – Expected to be 225K compared to previous 223K. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as negative for the USD.

27/03/2025

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26/03/2025

FX DAILY REPORT - 26 March 2025 (provided by ForexPeople)

• The Rand opened weaker against the GBP and relatively unchanged against the USD & EUR this morning.
• The EUR is under slight pressure following dovish remarks from European Central Bank policymakers, signalling that interest rates could be cut further, potentially dropping to 2.00% by the latter half of the year from the current 2.50% deposit rate.
• Meanwhile, market focus is on the UK CPI inflation data set for release today, along with the Spring Forecast statement. Additionally, recent developments suggest the UK may avoid being targeted by the US in the reciprocal tariffs set to be announced on April 2, providing further support for GBP.

Todays events:

• UK CPI Inflation (YoY) at 9:00 – Expected to be 2.9% compared to previous 3.0%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the GBP.
• UK Spring Forecast Statement at 12:00 – A bi-annual speech addressing the UKs economic forecast. The GBP could strengthen or weaken depending on if the outlook is positive or negative.
• US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) at 14:30 – Expected to be -0.6% compared to previous 3.1%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the USD.

25/03/2025

FX DAILY REPORT - 25 March 2025 (provided by ForexPeople)

• The Rand opened weaker against all the majors this morning.
• Markets are growing more uncertain as Trump prepares to announce new reciprocal trade tariffs on the 2nd of April. These tariffs are said to be targeted by sector and country rather than applied broadly. This may cause volatility in the ZAR, especially given the current strained US relations.

Todays events:

• German Ifo Business Climate Index at 11:00 – Expected to be 86.8 compared to previous 85.2. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the EUR.
• US CB Consumer Confidence at 16:00 – Expected to be 94.2 compared to previous 98.3. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the USD.
• US New Home Sales at 16:00 – Expected to be 682K compared to previous 657K. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the USD.

24/03/2025

FX DAILY REPORT - 24 March 2025 (provided by ForexPeople)

• The Rand opened stronger against the GBP and weaker against the USD & EUR this morning.
• The South African Reserve Bank decided to hold interest steady at 7.50% on Thursday afternoon, with SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago stating “Some policy adjustments by major central banks are still expected this year, but rates are likely to remain high for longer, given new inflation risks”.
• Relations between the US and SA continue to strain the ZAR, as the potential for US tariffs against South Africa remains a concern. The AGOA free trade agreement for Sub-Saharan countries is due for renewal in September. With diplomatic tensions rising and global trade policies shifting, fears are growing that South Africa could lose its AGOA benefits, further impacting its economy.

Todays events:

• HCOB German Manufacturing PMI Pre. at 10:30 – Expected to be 47.1 compared to previous 46.5. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the EUR.
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Pre. at 11:30 – Expected to be 47.3 compared to previous 46.9. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the GBP.
• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Pre. at 15:45 – Expected to be 51.9 compared to previous 52.7. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the USD.

20/03/2025

FX DAILY REPORT - 20 March 2025 (provided by ForexPeople)

• The Rand opened stronger against all the majors this morning.
• The ZAR strength can be largely attributed to the strong performance of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), which hit a record high yesterday. Additionally, rising gold prices have further supported the ZAR’s upward momentum.
• The US dollar remains relatively stable after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.50% yesterday. Despite Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks on strong economic growth and a resilient labour market, markets are still pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut for the next meeting in June.

Todays events:

• UK Unemployment Rate at 9:00 – Expected to remain the same at 4.4%. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as negative for the GBP.
• UK Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 – Expected to hold rates steady at 4.50%. An unexpected decision to cut interest rates will likely cause the GBP to weaken.
• US Initial Jobless Claims at 14:30 – Expected to be 224K compared to previous 220K. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as negative for the USD.
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 14:30 – Expected to be 8.8 compared to previous 18.1. A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the USD.
• South African Interest Rate Decision at 15:00 – Expected to hold rates steady at 7.50%. An unexpected decision to cut interest rates will likely cause the ZAR to weaken.

20/03/2025

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19/03/2025

FX DAILY REPORT - 19 March 2025 (provided by ForexPeople)

• The Rand opened weaker against all the majors this morning.
• Gold continues to soar, reaching a record high of $3,042.00 with no signs of slowing down. As the escalating trade war causes risk sentiment to increase across global markets, investors are flocking to the precious metal as a safe-haven asset.
• Meanwhile, multiple key interest rate decisions are on the horizon. The U.S. decision is set for today, followed by the UK and South African announcements tomorrow. While investors widely anticipate rates to remain unchanged, any deviation from expectations could trigger significant volatility in the respective currencies.

Todays events:

• South African CPI (YoY) at 10:00 – Previous result was 3.2%. A higher-than-previous result can be seen as positive for the ZAR.
• Eurozone CPI (YoY) at 12:00 – Expected to be 2.4% compared to previous 2.5% A higher-than-expected result can be seen as positive for the EUR.
• US FOMC Economic Projections at 20:00 – This report includes the projections for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years, additionally it shows the breakdown of each FOMC members interest rate forecasts.
• US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 20:00 – Expected to remain the same at 4.50%. An unexpected decision to cut interest rates will likely cause the USD to weaken.
• US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 - FOMC members will explain their interest rate decision and will potentially offer an outlook for future interest rate plans.

Cogent Treasury Solutions PTY LTD

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