14/02/2025
Here are the key highlights from the February 2025 newsletter:
Trump’s First Moves Shake Global Markets
Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2025, and signed 36 executive orders in his first week.
Major policies include trade tariffs (25% on Mexico & Canada, 10% on China, additional threats to the EU), energy expansion, and border security, declaring a National Emergency at the US-Mexico border.
The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, despite Trump's calls for lower borrowing costs.
AI Disruption – DeepSeek’s Breakthrough
Chinese AI firm DeepSeek launched its R1 model, disrupting global tech markets.
The model's cost-efficient approach questions whether US tech firms have overspent on AI infrastructure.
Speculation arises that companies like NVIDIA and cloud providers may scale back AI investments.
Middle East – Ceasefire in Gaza
A temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas started on January 19, 2025.
The deal includes a six-week truce, hostage-for-prisoner exchanges, and potential full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
Reconstruction is expected to take three to five years.
South Africa – Economic & Political Developments
Inflation steady at 3% in December, marking the lowest annual inflation average since 2020.
The South African Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 7.5%, with another cut to 7.25% expected by mid-year.
President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Expropriation Bill into law, allowing for land expropriation without compensation.
Trump and members of the GNU criticized the bill, warning of potential funding cuts to South Africa, which relies on US support for HIV/AIDS programs.