28/08/2026
Markets remain focused on developments around the Strait of Hormuz, with Qatar pushing Iran to agree to conditions that could allow the waterway to reopen. While some improvement in shipping flows has been seen, volumes remain well below pre-war levels, and Tehran continues to hold significant leverage. Brent is trading around $88/barrel, with the geopolitical risk premium still elevated. A credible reopening of the Strait would remove some of that premium, while a breakdown in negotiations could quickly send oil higher.
The focus now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole address later today. Several Fed officials have warned that inflation remains too sticky and that current policy may not be restrictive enough, raising the prospect of another rate hike later this year. Markets are currently pricing roughly a 35% chance of a September hike and 75% by December. A hawkish message from Warsh could push US yields higher and support the dollar, while a lack of clear guidance could leave the currency vulnerable.
The rand has pulled back slightly from its recent gains, with USD/ZAR moving back towards the R16.00 level after trading below R15.90 earlier in the week. Lower South African inflation and a softer PPI reading remain supportive, but the rand is increasingly being driven by offshore developments. Higher oil prices, a retreat in gold and uncertainty around the Fed are all potential headwinds. For now, R16.00 remains the key psychological level, with a break below R15.9650 opening the possibility of another move towards R15.8250.