TreasuryONE - Pty Ltd

TreasuryONE - Pty Ltd How can we help optimise your financial flows and minimise your risk? đź“Š TreasuryOne was established in May 2000.

The company’s mission is to provide a broad range of best practice treasury solutions to organisations of all size

The economic impact of the Middle East conflict is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.With oil supply routes unde...
17/03/2026

The economic impact of the Middle East conflict is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

With oil supply routes under pressure and inflation risks rising globally, markets are rapidly reassessing interest rate expectations. In South Africa, higher fuel prices could feed directly into inflation and place additional strain on consumers, businesses and monetary policy.

In this week’s market update, we unpack the growing link between oil, inflation, interest rates and the rand - and why volatility is likely to remain a defining feature in the weeks ahead.

👉 Link in the comments below👇

A lot of finance teams say, “Excel gives us control.” We understand that, because spreadsheets feel familiar and flexibl...
17/03/2026

A lot of finance teams say, “Excel gives us control.” We understand that, because spreadsheets feel familiar and flexible. But the longer you rely on them for forecasting, the more control you think you have... while the real risk quietly increases. Versions multiply. Models become dependent on one or two people. Time gets consumed by updates instead of analysis. And confidence drops every time someone asks, “Which file is the latest one?”

Moving beyond Excel doesn’t mean losing control. It means moving control to the right places: governance, data quality, variance discipline, and visibility. The goal is not to take flexibility away, but to remove the manual steps that shouldn’t be manual anymore.

If your forecast still depends on a “master spreadsheet,” it may be worth asking what it’s costing you in time, risk, and decision speed.

Oil prices have rebounded amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, driving market sentiment. Brent crude is up over 3% to aro...
17/03/2026

Oil prices have rebounded amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, driving market sentiment. Brent crude is up over 3% to around $103/bbl, recovering from yesterday’s sharp 6% decline. The move higher comes after US allies pushed back against President Trump’s request to deploy naval support to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh concerns about the stability of global oil supply. The situation in the region remains fluid, with ongoing supply risks keeping markets on edge. Currency markets are reflecting this uncertainty, with the Dollar regaining some ground after pulling back from recent highs.

Rising oil prices are feeding directly into global inflation concerns, influencing central bank expectations. The US Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision tomorrow, with markets expecting rates to remain on hold as policymakers assess the impact of higher energy costs on inflation. Similarly, the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. In Australia, the Reserve Bank raised interest rates by 25bps as expected, citing persistent inflation pressures. Despite the hike, the Aussie Dollar has remained relatively stable, suggesting the move was largely priced in. Overall, higher energy prices have led to a repricing of global interest rate expectations, with central banks likely to remain cautious in the near term.

The Rand strengthened by around 1.5% yesterday, benefiting from a weaker Dollar. For now, it is expected to trade within a R16.50–R17.00 range, taking direction from global developments. Gold prices have edged higher, up 0.6% to around $5,037/oz, as investors continue to seek safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

US PCE data rose in line with expectations, as a sign that inflation remains relatively stable. PCE rose 0.3% inline wit...
16/03/2026

US PCE data rose in line with expectations, as a sign that inflation remains relatively stable. PCE rose 0.3% inline with expectations. The FED will probably cut interest rates in September, after the release of PCE data, with expectations not being as hot as believed. Bets were for the rate cut being in October, with their inflation target still at 2%. Oil prices will remain key as the conflict remains high.

The EU ministers will meet to weigh up options to curb energy costs today, as they will draft plans to temper the impact of surging oil and gas prices, due to the war in Iran. This would assist consumers with rising energy bills. The dependence on oil and gas means that the EU is highly exposed to global price swings and no quick fixes are expected.

The South African rand has lost more ground on Friday, for its second week of losses as the surge in energy prices fuelled by conflict in the Middle-East rattled global markets and heightened inflation concerns. The rand lost nearly 3% last week with an expected 2% this week, while the rise in oil prices poses a challenge for South Africa, which is a net energy importer.

The price of gold remains relatively steady, after a near 1% fall earlier in the session, with a softer dollar helping offset hopes of a near-term interest rate cut by the FED due to the elevated energy prices. Gold remains above the $5,000 per ounce mark.

The price of oil rose as investor focus returned to threats facing Middle-East oil facilities, despite Trump’s call for nations to help safeguard the Strait of Hormuz, a vital area for global energy shipments. Brent rose 1.67%, while WTI also lost ground, quoted 0.9% below the $ 100-per-barrel mark.

Brent crude is holding above the $100.00 level despite Trump allowing countries to purchase Russian oil for a 30-day per...
13/03/2026

Brent crude is holding above the $100.00 level despite Trump allowing countries to purchase Russian oil for a 30-day period in an effort to ease constrained supply. The Straits of Hormuz remain effectively closed, with Iran vowing to continue to attack ships around the Gulf. Markets remain risk-averse, with the Dollar firming strongly overnight. The DXY index is up at 99.80, with the Euro trading just above 1.1500 and the Pound at 1.3335. Today, we have the US GDP Q4 data along with the PCE inflation price index number. The surge in the Oil price has raised concerns of higher inflation in the US and dimmed rate cut hopes.

The firmer Dollar and geopolitical-driven risk aversion are keeping EM currencies on the back foot. The Indian Rupee has hit its weakest level ever this morning, while the Rand is hovering just below the R16.80 mark. The local currency has also lost considerable ground against the Euro and Pound, trading at R19.32 and R22.39 respectively.

The Gold price is back up above the $5,100 level, following 2 days of losses, as traders weigh geopolitical safe-haven demand against inflation concerns. The escalation in the conflict in the Middle East is likely to see continued volatility in all markets in the short term.

When the forecast is stuck in spreadsheets, the business often ends up making calls with yesterday’s information. Not be...
12/03/2026

When the forecast is stuck in spreadsheets, the business often ends up making calls with yesterday’s information. Not because the team isn’t capable, but because the process is built around manual effort. By the time the numbers are consolidated, checked, rechecked, and formatted for stakeholders, the moment for decisive action has already moved on.

The shift we’re seeing in treasury is simple: less time spent “building the forecast” and more time spent using it. That’s what modern cash flow forecasting should enable: faster access to reliable inputs, clearer visibility, and the ability to respond while it still makes a difference.

If your forecast could give you earlier warning signals, what would you do differently this month?

The war in the Middle East is starting to have a real impact on global markets, particularly oil markets. The Strait of ...
12/03/2026

The war in the Middle East is starting to have a real impact on global markets, particularly oil markets. The Strait of Hormuz - a narrow shipping route where about 20% of the world’s oil normally passes through - is effectively closed due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. As a result, oil tankers have been attacked, ports have shut down, and some major producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq have cut production. This has pushed oil prices back above $100 a barrel, and markets are becoming increasingly nervous.

Governments are trying to calm things down by releasing emergency oil reserves. The US alone plans to release 172 million barrels, while the International Energy Agency will release about 400 million barrels globally. The aim is to increase supply and lower prices, but the problem is that these reserves are small compared to the volume of oil that normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz each day. In other words, they can help in the short term, but they can’t fully replace a disrupted supply.

For markets and consumers, the main risk is higher energy prices and inflation. If oil stays elevated for a while, it pushes up the cost of transport, food, and many everyday goods. That’s why global stock markets have become more volatile this week. For now, the key thing investors are watching is whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens - because that will likely determine whether oil prices settle down or continue climbing.

The rand and other emerging-market currencies are back under pressure this morning, as higher oil prices are pushing markets back into risk-off mode for now. The local currency is exposed to developments in the Middle East and will remain volatile as the situation ebbs and flows.

The Dollar is slightly weaker this morning after oil prices dropped below $90. The move follows the International Energy...
11/03/2026

The Dollar is slightly weaker this morning after oil prices dropped below $90. The move follows the International Energy Agency’s proposal for the largest-ever release of strategic oil reserves to ease supply concerns. At the same time, hopes that tensions in the Middle East could ease have also taken some pressure off the Dollar, despite ongoing missile and drone exchanges. Lower oil prices have helped cool inflation fears, increasing expectations that the US could begin cutting interest rates sooner. Markets will be watching closely today for the latest US CPI inflation data, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, will be released on Friday.

The Rand continues to recover against the Dollar, Euro, and Pound as global risk sentiment improves. Despite fairly uninspiring local GDP data released yesterday, the Rand remained resilient, supported by a softer Dollar and stronger precious metal prices.

Gold has moved back above the $5,200 level as falling oil prices ease inflation concerns and boost expectations of interest rate cuts. Markets will continue to track developments in the Middle East, while also focusing on upcoming US economic data for further direction.

SMEs often need cash to remain available for real-world decisions: payroll, tax, supplier commitments, property transact...
10/03/2026

SMEs often need cash to remain available for real-world decisions: payroll, tax, supplier commitments, property transactions, or time-sensitive opportunities.

That is why liquidity matters just as much as return.

TreasuryONE’s Money Market Fund platform positions liquidity as a core feature - with no lock-in periods and access to funds on the same day or next business day, depending on cut-off times. This gives investors the flexibility to keep cash productive without sacrificing responsiveness.

The US Dollar has given back some of its most recent gains, as well as losing some safe-haven appeal, due to Trump's com...
10/03/2026

The US Dollar has given back some of its most recent gains, as well as losing some safe-haven appeal, due to Trump's commentary that the war in Iran might end swiftly. Supply concerns have eased as well, with Trump threatening Iran with severe repercussions if any tankers are attacked in the Straits of Hormuz. The price of Oil hit a 3-year high of $119.50, and now sits just above $90 per barrel. Oil was further supported by Russian President Putin, who had a call with Trump, sharing proposals for a quick settlement to the war in Iran. Trump stated that, "the war in Iran is very complete."

The Rand, which had traded just above R16.90 yesterday, has recovered overnight on the back of comments from international leaders on ending the war in Iran. The Rand continues to trade lower and is quoted at R16.33 this morning. The risk for further weakness will depend on any escalating global conflict, with distribution risk weighing on the market, as South Africa is a net importer of energy. The SARB is likely to keep interest rates unchanged on the 26th of March. The lack of clarity on the duration and scale of the conflict will keep markets volatile, with investors taking defensive positions.

The price of Gold has gained 0.64% on the back of the weaker Dollar, with ramped-up hopes of an end to the war being in sight. The greenback lost 0.3%, giving more appeal to Gold.

The economic impact of the Middle East conflict is now moving to the forefront of global market thinking.What began as a...
09/03/2026

The economic impact of the Middle East conflict is now moving to the forefront of global market thinking.

What began as a geopolitical crisis has quickly become an energy and inflation shock, with oil prices surging as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disrupted. This matters because higher energy costs feed directly into global inflation, weaker growth prospects and a more cautious stance from central banks.

For South Africa, the implications are significant. Rising fuel costs, a weaker rand and the likelihood of inflation moving higher all point to a more complex outlook for households, businesses and monetary policy in the months ahead.

Our latest weekly market review unpacks what this means for the rand, interest rates and the broader economic environment.

Link in the comments below

Global markets remain on edge as the Middle East conflict deepens, pushing oil prices sharply higher and triggering a br...
09/03/2026

Global markets remain on edge as the Middle East conflict deepens, pushing oil prices sharply higher and triggering a broad risk-off reaction. Brent crude surged above $100 per barrel, at one point approaching $120, after disruptions to energy production and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of a major global supply shock. The waterway normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil, and with several Gulf producers cutting output, markets are increasingly concerned about a prolonged energy crisis. Iran has also named Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as his successor, signalling continuity in leadership as the conflict intensifies and raising concerns that tensions could persist for some time.

The US dollar has emerged as the primary safe-haven asset during the turmoil, strengthening against most major currencies as investors seek liquidity and safety. The Dollar has climbed strongly over the past week, supported by rising oil prices, escalating geopolitical risks, and expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay interest-rate cuts. Even though the latest US jobs report showed weaker hiring and a slight rise in unemployment, the dollar has remained resilient as markets focus more on inflation risks stemming from the energy shock. Positioning data also shows hedge funds reducing bearish bets on the currency, signalling expectations of further near-term dollar strength.

The surge in oil prices has triggered widespread volatility across global asset classes. Equities have sold off sharply as investors worry that sustained energy prices above $100 per barrel could weigh on global growth while pushing inflation higher. Bond markets have also struggled, with rising inflation concerns limiting demand for government bonds and pushing yields higher in several markets. Meanwhile, commodities have moved unevenly, and gold has weakened despite geopolitical tensions, pressured by the stronger dollar and expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer. Until there is clarity on the duration and scale of the conflict, markets are likely to remain volatile with investors favouring defensive positioning.

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TreasuryONE is the leading treasury solutions company in South Africa. In operation since May 2000, with offices in Pretoria and Cape Town, we offer a broad range of best practice treasury services to organisations of all sizes. TreasuryONE CTS (Pty) Ltd is a proudly South African Company and is a level 2 BBBEE contributor with an effective procurement recognition percentage of 125%.

TreasuryONE (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider and has South Africa Reserve Bank authorisation to act as a foreign exchange intermediary.