31/07/2026
FXSits If the United States and its allies were to continue sustained military strikes against Iran, oil prices would most likely rise, but the size and duration of the increase would depend on how the conflict affects oil production and shipping.
Here are the main scenarios:
Limited strikes with no disruption to oil exports
Oil prices could rise by 5–15% as traders price in geopolitical risk.
The increase may be temporary if production and shipping continue normally.
Strikes that damage Iranian oil infrastructure
Iran exports a significant volume of crude oil. If exports are disrupted, global supply would tighten.
Prices could increase by $10–20 per barrel, depending on the extent of the damage and how quickly other producers compensate.
Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz
This is the most significant risk. Around one-fifth of the world's oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
If shipping were interrupted, even briefly, oil prices could spike sharply—potentially exceeding $100–150 per barrel, depending on the severity and duration of the disruption.
Markets would also expect higher shipping costs and insurance premiums for tankers.
Long-term regional conflict
A prolonged conflict could keep oil prices elevated for months.
Higher energy costs would likely contribute to increased inflation, higher transportation costs, and slower economic growth worldwide.
There are also factors that could limit price increases:
Higher production from countries such as Saudi Arabia or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries if they decide to increase output.
Strategic petroleum reserve releases by major consuming countries.
Weak global demand due to slower economic growth, which can offset supply concerns.
For businesses that buy or trade edible oils, higher crude oil prices can also affect soybean oil, sunflower oil, and palm oil. Increased energy and freight costs raise production and transportation expenses, while higher crude prices can also increase demand for biodiesel feedstocks such as soybean oil, putting upward pressure on edible oil prices.
Overall, the greatest risk to oil prices is not the strikes themselves but whether they disrupt exports or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If exports continue normally, price increases are often driven more by market uncertainty than by an actual shortage of supply.
