01/09/2026
PRACTICAL RISK GUIDANCE FOR AGRICULTURAL CLIENTS: EL NIÑO 2026/27
El Niño conditions are developing and are expected to influence temperature and rainfall patterns.
What is El Niño?
You may have heard a lot about El Niño, but what does it actually mean? In simple terms, El Niño is a natural climate pattern that starts in the tropical Pacific Ocean and can influence weather patterns around the world. Normally, the tropical Pacific has a particular pattern of warm and cool water, winds and rainfall. During an El Niño event, parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This changes the way air moves around the atmosphere. That change can shift where rain falls, where it does not fall, and how temperatures behave in different parts of the world. Think of it like changing one of the big controls in the Earth's weather system. The change happens in one part of the world, but its effects can be felt much further away. It does not mean that everywhere will become hot and dry. El Niño affects different countries and regions differently and the actual weather experienced on a particular farm will still depend on local conditions and other weather systems. So why should a South African farmer care? Because El Niño can change the conditions that agriculture depends on.
In South Africa, El Niño has historically been associated with a greater likelihood of warmer and drier conditions during parts of the summer rainfall season, particularly over areas normally dependent on summer rainfall. But it is a probability, not a guarantee. The South African Weather Service's June 2026 outlook indicated that the developing El Niño could continue into the 2026/27 summer season and that the typical South African El Niño pattern is a warmer and drier summer. The current international forecasts also show an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across Southern Africa. But farmers should not think, “El Niño means we are definitely going to have a drought.”
Rather think:
“There is a greater possibility of conditions that could put pressure on my farm, so what can I do now?” And that is where risk management comes in.
• Less rainfall can mean less available water.
• Higher temperatures can increase water demand and heat stress.
• Dry conditions can reduce grazing and put pressure on crops.
• And when grass and vegetation dry out, they become fuel for fire.
• Add high temperatures, dry vegetation, wind and an ignition source, and a small fire can spread very quickly.
We cannot control El Niño. We cannot control the weather. But we can control how prepared we are. That means reducing the fuel around buildings and equipment, maintaining appropriate firebreaks, protecting livestock and assets, controlling ignition sources, knowing who to call and having a simple
plan before something goes wrong.
The purpose of this guidance is not to predict the weather. It is to help you prepare for what the weather may bring. So what does El Niño mean for agriculture and this risk it may pose to farmers and policyholders For agriculture, that matters because less rainfall and higher temperatures can dry out soil, grass and other vegetation. And when vegetation dries out, it becomes fuel. Add: heat + dry vegetation + wind + an ignition source and the potential for a veldfire becomes much greater.
It is not just about fire El Niño can also put pressure on:
• Water: less rainfall and higher temperatures can increase demand for available water.
• Crops: crops can experience moisture and heat stress.
• Grazing: dry conditions can reduce available grazing.
• Livestock: animals can experience heat and water stress.
• Farm workers: hot conditions increase heat-related risks.
• Infrastructure: drought, heat, storms and fire can all place additional pressure on farm infrastructure.
But the following is important:
El Niño is not a prediction that a particular place will experience drought, crop failure or fire. It is a warning that the background conditions may become more favourable for certain risks and that
farmers should prepare accordingly. Putting El Niño into a risk management perspective You do not need to predict exactly what the weather will do. You need to be prepared for what it could do.
That means looking at the things you can control:
1. Reduce the fuel.
2. Reduce ignition sources.
3. Protect your people, livestock and assets.
4. Know who to call.
5. Have a plan.
6. Check your insurance and speak to your broker
7. Act early when conditions become dangerous.
Practical Risk Management tips
1. Start with the firebreaks
• Check that firebreaks are prepared and maintained where the National Veld and Forest Fire Act 101 of 1998 requires them.
• Firebreaks must be appropriate to the local weather, climate, terrain and vegetation and must not create an erosion risk. There is no single universal width for every farm.
• If firebreaks are made or maintained by burning, check the legal requirements, local Fire Protection Association requirements and current fire-danger conditions before doing so. Do not burn simply because a firebreak needs attention.
2. Know who to call
• Save the local Fire Protection Association, fire service, relevant fire officials, neighbouring farmers, farm manager and key workers on your phone. Make sure workers know these contacts too. Joining a local FPA can support coordinated prevention and response where one operates in the area.
3. Walk the farm: remove the fuel Ask: “If a fire came through here tomorrow, what would it burn first?”
• Clear dry grass, weeds, branches and rubbish around houses, worker accommodation,
sheds, workshops, pump houses, livestock facilities and other critical assets.
• Keep roofs, gutters and areas against buildings clear of dry combustible material.
• Manage dense vegetation and bushes that could carry fire towards buildings.
• Keep access routes clear for emergency vehicles.
4. Protect feed, hay and other combustible storage
• Store hay and feed in a suitable, designated area and keep the surrounding area clear. If your insurance policy requires a specific clearance, such as 15 metres around stored bales, make
sure the requirement is actually maintained. Do not assume all policies have the same conditions.
• Avoid leaving large quantities of feed or hay in fields unnecessarily.
5. Protect machinery and irrigation equipment
• Park tractors, harvesters and vehicles away from long dry grass where reasonably possible.
• Remove accumulated grass, chaff, dust and crop residue from machinery, especially around heat-producing components.
• Check electrical cables, pumps and connections.
• Keep exposed irrigation equipment and critical infrastructure protected from fire where reasonably possible.
Machinery can be damaged by fire, but it can also become an ignition source. On high-risk days, reconsider unnecessary spark-or heat-producing work.
6. Protect livestock and people
• Identify safer livestock holding areas, gates, water points and routes before an emergency. Workers should know who is responsible for moving animals and where people must
assemble. People come first: do not attempt to fight a fire that is too large or moving too quickly.
7. Keep basic firefighting equipment ready
• Check that suitable fire extinguishers, available water, fire beaters where appropriate and basic protective equipment are accessible, maintained and known to workers. Equipment is
for early/small fires and assistance to trained responders; it is not for putting people in the path of a spreading veldfire.
8. Protect fuel storage
• Keep combustible vegetation away from fuel-storage areas. Maintain required containment/protective measures, deal with leaks immediately, keep ignition sources away and ensure appropriate firefighting equipment is accessible. Check the actual policy and applicable legal requirements for specific conditions.
9. Have a simple emergency plan
• Everyone should know: Who takes control? Who calls the fire service? Who alerts neighbours? Where do workers and residents go? Where do livestock go? Where is the equipment? Which gates/routes are used?
• Keep the plan simple, communicate it and practise it. A plan that exists only in one person’s head is not enough.
10. Watch the conditions
• Monitor local weather, wind, rainfall, vegetation dryness, official fire-danger information and FPA communications. As fire danger rises, tighten controls and avoid unnecessary open fires,
burning and other activities that can create sparks or heat. Follow official fire-danger restrictions and local instructions.
11. Check your insurance before the fire season (extremely important)
• As a client and policy holder speak to your broker/adviser and use the opportunity to check whether your cover and policy conditions still match your risks. Confirm buildings, machinery, irrigation equipment, livestock and relevant liability cover. For the agricultural policy currently placed through our business, the applicable policy wording provides a R500 000.00 limit under the liability section for firefighting costs.
• Your adviser will explain this to you together with the policy conditions, exclusions and excesses.
• Do not assume that this limit or any fire-related condition applies to a different policy or product without checking the actual wording. Safeguard your farms future and talk to your broker/ advisor today to:
• Walk the farm and identify the most likely fire paths.
• Clear dry fuel around the house, worker accommodation, feed, machinery, livestock
facilities and fuel storage.
• Check firebreaks.
• Save emergency and FPA contacts.
• Check firefighting equipment and water access.
• Confirm livestock movement arrangements.
• Check the policy conditions with the broker.
BE PREPARED. BE PROACTIVE. REDUCE THE RISK BEFORE THE FIRE STARTS.
Important: This is general risk guidance for South African agricultural clients. It does not replace the National Veld and Forest Fire Act 101 of 1998, applicable Fire Protection Association or fireservice requirements, or the specific terms, conditions, exclusions, warranties, limits and excesses of an insurance policy.
Brokers and advisers may use this as a practical conversation guide with agricultural clients. The aim is simple: help clients protect their assets and reduce their fire risk before conditions
become critical.
