Flagship Asset Management

14/10/2026

Gold's mysterious sellers

Gold prices have fallen sharply from their recent highs, yet one of the traditional sources of selling pressure appears conspicuously absent. Gold ETF holdings have remained resilient and, more recently, have actually increased despite the decline in prices.

Meanwhile, Central Banks remain significant buyers of physical gold, with China and other emerging-market Central Banks continuing to diversify their reserves.

This raises an intriguing question: if ETF investors are holding firm and Central Banks are still accumulating gold, who is selling enough to drive prices lower?

Potential explanations include profit-taking by private investors, liquidation of leveraged positions, increased recycled gold supply, or selling by sovereign investors facing fiscal pressures. Middle Eastern governments funding budget deficits are one possibility, although there is insufficient evidence to identify them as the source.

The important distinction is that resilient ETF demand and continued Central Bank buying do not prevent gold prices from falling. Prices are determined by the marginal balance of buying and selling across the entire market, including substantial transactions outside publicly reported ETF and central-bank flows.

12/10/2026

Looking beyond the headlines driving market volatility.

Global markets ended September on a mixed note as investors navigated higher interest rates, rising energy prices and renewed volatility across the AI sector.

From shifting expectations around US monetary policy and mounting inflationary pressures to weakness in South African equities, our September Monthly Commentary looks at the key developments shaping global and local markets.

Read the full commentary: https://flagshipsa.com/monthly-commentary-september-2026/

Flagship's Monthly Commentary for September 2026. Our fund managers review global equity, bond and currency markets and what they mean for investors.

02/10/2026

LOOKING BEHIND THE SCENES | The people behind Flagship

A little behind-the-scenes glimpse from today's team photoshoot as we prepare for the launch of our refreshed website.

At Flagship, our business has always been about people - the people who manage investments, challenge ideas, identify opportunities and look after our clients every day.

Our new website will tell more of that story, and giving you a closer look at who we are.

A new look. The same Flagship team.

29/09/2026

What if the ‘E’ is expensive too?

Much of the debate around US equities focuses on valuation multiples. The S&P 500 looks expensive relative to history, but the usual counterargument is compelling: earnings have been exceptionally strong.

There is another way to look at that argument.

S&P 500 earnings are currently around 20% above their long-term trend, the largest positive deviation in Schwab’s 75-year analysis. Earnings grew approximately 15% over the past year and by more than 13% per annum over the past five years.

That doesn't mean earnings are about to fall. Today's largest US companies are highly profitable, increasingly asset-light and benefiting from powerful structural forces. AI investment and associated productivity gains could potentially sustain higher profitability for longer than historical comparisons might suggest.

But it does raise an interesting question.

22/09/2026

A Fed hike doesn't necessarily kill the bull market

The conventional reaction to higher interest rates is to assume they must be bad for equities. History suggests it is a little more nuanced.

Looking at the six Fed tightening cycles since 1994, the S&P 500 has typically struggled in the first few months following the initial rate hike. But by months five and six, equities have generally started to recover. Twelve months after the first hike, the average return was +6.7%, with a median return of +10.7%.

Why? Central banks generally begin tightening because the economy is strong enough to warrant it. Rising nominal GDP, healthy corporate earnings and resilient demand can initially outweigh the drag from higher interest rates.

There are important exceptions. 2022 is the obvious one, when inflation forced the Fed into an unusually aggressive tightening cycle. At the other extreme, 1997 saw just one rate hike and the S&P 500 subsequently gained more than 40%.

21/09/2026

IN THE NEWS | Philip Short comments on the factors shaping this week's South African Reserve Bank interest rate decision.

Following the US Federal Reserve's latest rate increase, Philip considers the pressure on the South African Reserve Bank to respond, particularly given the risk that a weaker rand could amplify the rising cost of imported oil and refined petroleum products.

He also highlights the difficult trade-off: South Africa's inflation is currently being driven largely by supply-side pressures, which higher interest rates cannot directly address, while consumers are already carrying significant debt repayment burdens.

Read the full article in The National:
https://thenational.co.za/news/2026-09-21-sarb-likely-to-raise-repo-rate-as-economic-pressures-mount/

15/09/2026

America's corporate investment engine is pulling away.

The divergence is extraordinary. US companies are expanding their economic asset base at a rate far above their developed-market peers - a gap that has accelerated sharply in recent years.

This provides another lens through which to view US exceptionalism. The enormous investment underway in AI, data centres, semiconductors, software and power infrastructure is increasingly visible in the corporate numbers.

But there is an important catch: investment is not the same as value creation.

The real question is whether companies can earn sufficiently high returns on all this new capital. If they can, America's growth advantage may help justify some of its valuation premium. If returns disappoint, today's extraordinary investment boom could ultimately become a headwind.

14/09/2026

Monthly Commentary | August 2026

Looking beyond equity gains to the pressures building in bond markets.

Global equity markets largely moved higher in August, but rising bond yields, persistent inflation and changing capital flows point to a more complex investment backdrop.

From the extraordinary funding demands of the AI build-out to rising US Treasury yields, resurgent gold and strength in South African resources, our August Monthly Commentary explores the key developments shaping global markets.

Read the full commentary: https://flagshipsa.com/monthly-commentary-august-2026/

Flagship's Monthly Commentary for July 2026. Our fund managers review global equity, bond and currency markets and what they mean for investors.

10/09/2026

Webinar | Are You Really Diversified?

Join us on 23 September 2026 for FundRock Collective Investments' Offshore Investment Manager Webinar Series, where Philip Short, Fund Manager at Flagship Asset Management, will be discussing:

ARE YOU REALLY DIVERSIFIED?
Rethinking Global Equity Exposure in a Concentrated Market

Philip will share Flagship's perspective on what genuine diversification means in global equities, looking beyond geography and sector labels to understand where portfolio risks and opportunities really lie.

📅 23 September 2026 | Group 3
🔗 Register here: https://lnkd.in/dtxdZDSk
📄 View the Group 3 agenda: https://lnkd.in/dZBG2E5s

08/09/2026

The AI boom is becoming a debt boom

For years, the world's largest technology companies were able to fund investment largely from their enormous cash flows. The scale of the AI buildout is changing that.

Hyperscaler bond issuance was just $17bn in 2024, rising to $109bn in 2025. J.P. Morgan expects issuance to reach $279bn in 2026 - more than 16 times the 2024 level - with $194bn already raised in the first half of the year. Issuance is expected to remain elevated at $220-300bn in 2027.

Why it matters

AI is no longer just an equity-market story - it is becoming a major force in global credit markets. At the same time that governments are borrowing heavily, the world's largest technology companies are increasingly competing for the same pool of capital to finance AI infrastructure.

For investors, that additional demand for capital could have consequences well beyond technology: putting upward pressure on borrowing costs, influencing credit spreads and potentially helping keep global bond yields higher for longer.