23/01/2026
This week separates the AI winners from the pretenders.
Between January 28-29, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Teslaโrepresenting roughly 34% of the S&P 500โreport Q4 earnings. And after hyperscalers poured an estimated $400 billion into AI infrastructure in 2025, investors arenโt interested in AI hype anymore. We want proof of return.
Hereโs what Iโm watching:
Meta (Jan 29): The frontrunner. Stock up 4%+ on confidence in AI monetization. Their AI ad tools are generating a $60B annual run rate. Expecting ~$58.3B revenue (+20.6% YoY).
Microsoft (Jan 29): The pressureโs on Copilot. Can AI assistant revenue scale to match infrastructure spending? Plus that $25B OpenAI litigation exposure is still hanging over them. EPS expected: $3.86-$3.88.
Tesla (Jan 28): Tough spot. Q4 deliveries down 15.6% YoY, losing global EV crown to BYD. But energy storage deployed a record 14.2 GWh in Q4. Looking for EPS around $0.32-$0.44.
Apple (Jan 29): Expected to post the strongest quarter with ~$138B revenue and $2.65-$2.67 EPS. iPhone 17 momentum and Services growth driving 10-12% revenue growth.
The Wild Card: Fed meets Jan 27-28. 95%+ probability they hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%. But the real catalyst? Corporate ex*****on.
The 48-hour window between Powellโs press conference and Appleโs report will set the tone for H1 2026. Market performance has shifted entirely to how well these companies deliver on AI promises.
Iโll be watching unusual options flow closely this week. The narrative era is overโnow weโre in the accountability phase
