29/07/2026
Odds of another RBA rate lift have surged ahead of the August 11 board meeting
Market expectations for a further 0.25% RBA cash rate rise have jumped sharply in just one week.
Back on 17 July, the ASX Rate Tracker only priced a 16% chance of an August hike. As of 24 July, this probability had climbed all the way to 43%.
The key trigger was Australia’s much stronger-than-expected June employment print:
The economy added 76,300 new jobs, vastly exceeding the consensus forecast of roughly 15,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%, driven by a rise in workforce participation.
A resilient labour market gives the RBA scope to tighten monetary policy again if inflation remains persistent. Elevated global oil & energy costs are also adding upside inflation risks right now.
For now, a rate hold is still marginally favoured by markets, but another increase is no longer an unlikely outcome.
Tomorrow we’ll receive the critical June quarterly inflation figures — this data will almost certainly shift the hiking odds higher or pull them back down significantly.
What this means for mortgage holders & buyers:
1. Variable loan repayments will jump immediately if the RBA hikes;
2. Borrowing capacity will shrink further amid higher assessment rates;
3. Fixed rate pricing will edge up across most lenders in advance of the decision.
If you’d like to stress-test your home loan against both hold & hike scenarios, review refinance options or lock in a competitive fixed rate ahead of the call, feel free to send me a message anytime.
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