17/09/2025
Gold Analysis 16/9 – Gold rallied around $60 to around $3685 yesterday amid the Fed’s impending rate cut and escalating geopolitical tensions. Today, the market is focused on US retail sales data due at 7:30pm Hanoi time.
The focus is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday night. The market is anticipating a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, with a low probability of a surprise 50bps hike. In addition to the Fed, monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of Canada (BoC) are also adding to the volatile backdrop, potentially amplifying market volatility across all asset classes, including gold.
The U.S. central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday night, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The probability of that happening is 95%, and the odds of a 50 basis point cut are as low as 5%. Gold is headed toward the $3,700 region, although that will depend on the outcome of the Fed’s decision. A dovish rate cut could push gold above that level and open the way to $3,750 and $3,800. Conversely, a hawkish Fed could prompt traders to take profits and push gold lower.With yesterday's hot increase, gold is likely to have a downward correction. However, the upward trend of gold is still good, watch to buy gold after the declines are considered. The expected buying area is around 3665.
Reference strategy: Gold 9/16 - Sell around 3685, Stop 3691, TP 3675-3670-3665. Or watch to buy around 3660-3665, stop loss when closing H1 candle below 3660, TP 3680-3700.