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08/31/2023

Under the expectation of industry recovery, many investors hope that the aviation industry can continue its recent gains in the second half of this year. According to various data, airlines are seeing better-than-expected leisure and corporate demand, and a modest decline in fuel costs has also eased pressure on the industry. Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) sparked an industry-wide rally in late June after it issued an exciting new guidance ahead of the second-quarter earnings season.

Despite record levels of travel over the busy Fourth of July holiday weekend, flight delays and cancellations have generated some negative headlines and disgruntled passengers. These developments are likely to add to the focus on booking trends, which have been mixed for the industry over the past month.

Bank of America reported that airline bookings rebounded after the June 1 holiday, with system net sales up 4.0% for the week ended June 25 compared to the same period in 2019. Transaction volume also accelerated month-on-month, while ticket prices declined. However, on average over the past two weeks, system net sales were down 4.4% from the same period in 2019, down from -2.6% in the prior two weeks. “In addition to holiday-related volatility, we note that all channels have followed a generally consistent downward trend since May,” BofA warned.

In terms of stock price performance, Air West (SKYW.US) is the airline with the largest increase in the first half of this year, with an increase of 147%, Loyalty Travel (ALGT.US) rose 86%, while United Airlines (UAL.US) and Delta American Airlines (AAL.US), JetBlue Airways (JBLU.US) and Alaska Airways (ALK.US) are all up about 45% over the past six months. At the industry level, the return of the aviation ETF-U.S.Global in the first half of the year was 26%, which was higher than the average level of the broader market.

08/28/2023

Recently, Lori Calvasina, Chief Stock Market Strategist from RBC Capital Markets, a renowned Canadian bank, released a research report indicating that trading trends for prominent U.S. tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, as well as other growth stocks, are facing uncertainty due to crowded positions and overvaluation. This viewpoint aligns closely with perspectives from institutions like Bank of America, suggesting that the robust rebound seen in U.S. tech stocks during the first half of the year is unlikely to continue, with more sideways movement and declines expected.

Despite the potential for the Nasdaq 100 Index to experience its largest monthly decline so far this year, the index is projected to still rise by 37% in 2023, largely buoyed by extreme optimism in the first half regarding AI development and the anticipation that U.S. benchmark interest rates will soon peak.

In a research report, Calvasina wrote that the valuation levels of growth stocks in the U.S. market still significantly surpass long-term averages. The RBC strategist team led by Calvasina emphasized, "Addressing the issues of overvaluation and overly crowded stock trading in the growth stocks requires investors to remain patient." Statistical data cited by her showed that global asset management firms' allocations in Nasdaq 100 Index futures indicate that the trading channel for large tech stocks has become excessively congested.

Simultaneously, the dominant position of broader growth stocks in terms of positive performance expectations is waning, and funds focused on such stocks are experiencing negative inflows.

However, the strategists from the institution maintain a "buy" rating for U.S. tech stocks. Calvasina's team continues to believe that from a long-term fundamental perspective, growth stocks in the U.S. market remain appealing.

The team of strategists at RBC raised the year-end target price for the S&P 500 Index, a U.S. benchmark index, to 4250 points in May. This adjustment was driven by the resurgence of corporate profit confidence and the resilience of the labor market, providing hope that the U.S. economy could potentially avoid a recession. The benchmark index closed at around 4406 points last Friday, with a weekly decline of over 2%.

The RBC strategists' target implies a slight 3.5% decline in the S&P 500 Index by year-end, and Calvasina emphasized that the institution still holds concerns that the correction in the U.S. stock market has not fully concluded. However, she underscored in the report that the institution's view on the U.S. stock market is more "neutral" than outright "bearish" moving forward.

RBC aligns with Wall Street institutions like Bank of America in the "cautious" camp, signaling that the challenges facing U.S. stock trading have not yet reversed.

Dubbed the "most accurate strategist on Wall Street," Michael Hartnett, Chief Equity Strategist at Bank of America, mentioned in a report last Friday, "We believe the second half for U.S. stocks will be a trouble time, not an era of new AI rules." Hartnett's team forecasts a roughly 4% decline in the S&P 500 Index to around 4200 points by year-end, a projection that closely aligns with RBC's.

Hartnett emphasized that particularly large tech stocks will face challenges for a period, as the frenzy around AI investments will be overshadowed by the impact of the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for a more extended period.

Hartnett's team accurately predicted the timing of the U.S. stock market crash last year. Despite the epic rebound in U.S. stocks during the first half of the year, he remains pessimistic about 2023. The Nasdaq 100 Index, considered a global tech stock barometer, saw a significant drop in August and is on track for its worst month since December of the previous year, yet it has still risen by 37% this year. The index hit a historical high in the first half of the year, driven by fervent enthusiasm for AI's potential to boost global tech industry profits. However, the negative impact of monetary policy on high-growth tech firms has now become a more widely discussed theme among investors.

08/25/2023

1. On Friday (August 25th), the S&P 500 index opened slightly higher. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference that "if necessary, interest rates will be raised again, and the real interest rate is higher than most people expect. After that, it rebounded to 4416.85 points, and then turned down, reaching a low of 4356.29 points on the refresh day, then rebounded and fluctuated upwards, and rose to a daily high of 4418.46 points within 60 minutes before the close, roughly out of a V shape throughout the day trend.

2. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index closed up 1.1%, the energy sector rose 1.07%, the industrial and information technology/technology sectors rose more than 0.8%, the financial sector rose more than 0.3%, and the telecom services sector rose 0.17% "worst performer" .

3. In the consumer optional sector, Hasbro HAS closed up 5.66% to lead, Tesla (238.59, 8.55, 3.72%) rose 3.72%, Ford Motor (11.91, 0.16, 1.36%), Aptiv, Nike (98.84, 1.21, 1.24%) Carnival Cruise Line, Amazon (133.26, 1.42, 1.08%), eBay, Garmin GRMN rose 1.30%-1.01%, Ross Department Store and Home Depot (322.86, 0.27, 0.08%) rose about 0.1%, Ralph Lauren ( 111.85, -0.64, -0.57%) closed down 0.57%, Las Vegas Sands fell 1.41%, and Utah Beauty ULTA fell 3.69%. Among them, Tesla has risen by 10.72% this week, ending the previous three consecutive weeks of decline.

08/24/2023

After two quarters of decline, global trade will improve in the second quarter of this year and will grow at a "moderate pace" in the third quarter, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said.

The WTO's cyclical commodity barometer gauge rose to 99.1 from 95.6 reported in May, according to a report from the Geneva-based body on Thursday. A baseline level of 100 points to growth in the next quarter in line with the medium-term trend.

High commodity prices, tightening monetary conditions, and weak import demand have weighed on global trade volumes, the report said.

Looking ahead, the WTO said its forecast for a 1.7 percent increase in trade this year "remains achievable, provided trade picks up as expected in the second half of the year."

The agency said a surge in auto exports led to stronger-than-expected growth in Japan's gross domestic product (GDP).

Despite the rosy WTO outlook, major economic indicators in the US and Europe are showing signs of slowing, in part due to continued interest rate hikes.

Shipments at the Port of Los Angeles fell 26.8% year-on-year last month. A.P. Shipping companies such as Moller-Maersk A/S and CMA CGM have warned that trade volumes may be suppressed for the rest of 2023.

08/23/2023

Financial Associated Press, August 23 According to media reports, Tesla (236.86, 3.67, 1.57%) lowered the production target of its German factory in July and August after achieving a weekly production target of 5,000 vehicles in March. to 4,350 vehicles in a single week, and further reductions are planned.

In late March this year, Tesla announced on the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) that its factory near Berlin, Germany, had reached its weekly production target of 5,000 cars, much ahead of schedule.

However, sources have revealed that Tesla's German factory has only achieved a weekly output of 5,000 vehicles once, and the average production since then has been much lower.

Tesla said in June that it hired fewer temporary workers than it started because they were no longer needed, but that the company was on track with production goals.

According to the report, pictures of Tesla's internal workflow software show that the company has lowered the production target of the German factory in July and August to 870 vehicles per day, or 4,350 vehicles per week.

However, Tesla has not always been able to achieve even the lowered target. Its German factory produced only 692 cars on July 25 and only 806 cars on July 28.

According to sources, Tesla's internal target has been further lowered to 750 vehicles per day, which is equivalent to less than 4,000 vehicles per week.

Tesla said last month that it plans to expand the production capacity of the German factory to 1 million vehicles per year, but did not provide a specific timetable. In addition, Tesla also declined to comment on when the German factory will reach the output of 6,000 vehicles per week.

Since late last year, Tesla has cut prices multiple times in China, the U.S. and other markets, and has added discounts and other incentives to reduce inventory. Tesla is dealing with stiff competition from rivals and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Tesla currently has four complete vehicle factories, located in Shanghai, China, Berlin, Germany, Austin, Texas, and Fremont, California.

According to Tesla's financial report for the second quarter of this year, the Shanghai plant topped the list with an annual production capacity of more than 750,000 vehicles, followed by the California plant with 650,000 vehicles, followed by the Berlin plant with 375,000 vehicles, and the Texas plant with more than 250,000 vehicles. The annual production capacity of vehicles is at the bottom.

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