06/03/2026
"Recession-resistant" is the most abused phrase in real estate.
Let me tell you what it actually means.
Every sponsor on LinkedIn claims their asset is recession-resistant.
Multifamily. Self-storage. Industrial. Hotels. (Yes, hotels.)
If everything is recession-resistant, nothing is.
Here's the real test. Ask one question:
"When household budgets get squeezed, does demand for this asset go up, down, or stay flat?"
That's it. That's the whole framework.
A few honest answers:
🏢 Class A apartments: demand drops. People trade down.
🏬 Class B/C apartments: demand often holds. People trade in.
🏠 Mobile home parks: demand often increases. It's the most affordable form of homeownership in the country, and supply is shrinking because no one builds new ones.
🅿️ Parking near dense employment: demand holds, sometimes grows as transit ridership shifts.
🏥 Medical office on long-term triple-net leases: demand is essentially decoupled from the cycle. People don't skip dialysis in a recession.
🏨 Hotels: demand collapses. (See: 2008, 2020.)
Notice the pattern. Recession resistance is about non-discretionary demand and supply constraint. Not vibes.
When you hear a sponsor say "recession-resistant," ask them which of those two levers their asset actually pulls.
If they can't answer in one sentence, they're using the phrase as marketing.
The boring, ugly, unsexy asset classes are usually the ones that hold up.
Because they solve a need that doesn't go away when times get tight.
What's your personal litmus test for a "recession-resistant" deal?