03/21/2022
Nearly a week removed from the Fed’s first rate-hike since 2018, the bond markets have reacted similarly as the last few Fed meetings. We saw rates tick up ahead of the meeting and then came down slightly after, with the Fed delivering on their telegraphed increase of .25% in the Fed Fund’s rate. The Fed expressed that they plan on raising the fed funds rate THREE more times and although the federal funds rate and mortgage rates have no direct correlation, it's a benchmark statistic for where they're going and it doesn't look good.
This is all in hopes of countering inflation and stopping people from overpaying on homes. In the last two years we've seen a dramatic rise in home prices and this is an attempt at preventing further rise in home prices and multiple offer situations. I personally don't see how giving less people the ability to afford a home counters inflation, but I can only hope it works. Meanwhile Russia and Ukraine continue to drive volatility within commodity markets. Crude oil, food and precious metals continue to trade at elevated levels and will likely continue to impact near-term inflation readings.
Rates are not only back to where they were pre-covid, they're worse. Rates are steadily increasing at the moment, rates in the mid to high 4's, even very low 5's. Things are looking bleak and with interest rates on the rise, i'm very curious to see how home prices are effected. I'd love to hear your thoughts.