05/22/2023
๐ก ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฎ, ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฏ
๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐น๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐น๐ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ ๐
The outlook for mortgage rates unexpectedly shifted last week, as Fed members made it clear that they expected to pause rate hiking in June but were leaving the door open for more hikes in the future if needed. A couple of weeks ago markets had been pricing in Fed rate cuts to begin as early as July, but markets now expecting the Fed to hold rates longer. This shift in outlook has pressured mortgage rates to slowly move higher.
๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ด๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐: ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐
With little in the way of economic data and a holiday weekend, it isn't likely we see a change in the current outlook and we could see rates creep slightly higher this week. Rates unlikely to move lower again until the Fed outlook changes.
๐๏ธ ๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ฎ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ:
- Economic data: Little data this week that is likely to affect rates, other than Friday's PCE inflation report.
- Debt ceiling talks: Although concerns of a U.S. default due to not raising the debt ceiling are having some effects on markets, there hasn't been a spillover into mortgage rates yet and likely wouldn't be unless we start to actually default on debt payments.
- Fed speakers: Fed members speaking throughout the week could continue to cause rates to creep higher.