09/29/2025
Week in review (9/26/25)
Hi, this is Robyn Graves with your weekly market update.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), held steady at 2.9% year-over-year in August. While this matched expectations, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
This followed a drop in first-time jobless claims, which fell to 218,000 – the second consecutive weekly decline after recently hitting a four-year high. However, continuing claims have stayed above 1.9 million for 18 straight weeks, indicating it’s taking longer for people to find new jobs and pointing to a cooling labor market.
Why does this matter? The Fed watches both inflation and employment closely when making interest rate decisions. On September 17, the Fed cut rates, citing “rising downside risks to employment.” The next big data point is the September Jobs Report, due October 3, which will play a key role in the Fed’s next decision on October 29.
Quick reminder: When the Fed adjusts rates, it’s changing the Fed Funds Rate – a short-term rate that banks use to lend to each other. It doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but it does influence them, along with other economic factors.
In housing news, existing home sales were nearly flat in August, but those numbers reflect closings – so most buyers were shopping in June and July, before mortgage rates started to ease. New home sales, which reflect contracts signed in August, jumped sharply, capturing some of that rate decline.
Whether you’re looking to buy, refinance, or just exploring your options, I’m here to help. Reach out any time with questions!
09/26/25
