10/12/2026
Happy Birthday to the Bull Market! 🎂📈 Today, the current S&P 500 bull market officially turns four years old and enters its fifth year. Since beginning in October 2022, this bull market has navigated tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and rising interest rates while continuing to move higher on the back of strong economic and earnings growth. Here are a few interesting numbers that put the last four years into perspective.
📈 The S&P 500 has gained approximately 117% on a price-return basis during this bull market, compared with about 90% for the historical average bull market.
🥉 That 117% gain ranks this as the third-strongest bull market since 1945.
🎂 Reaching year five is relatively uncommon. This milestone has been reached only seven other times since 1949.
🏆 The market has produced 124 record highs, more than double the roughly 50-record-high average among the seven prior bull markets that lasted at least four years.
📉 Volatility has actually been below average. There have been just two corrections of 10% or more, versus an average of approximately five in prior bull markets.
💻 Every S&P 500 sector has participated, but Technology has led with a 260% price-only return, followed by Communication Services at 195%. No other sector has surpassed a 100% gain.
🔭 History has been favorable in year five. Historically, the fifth year of a bull market has generated an average return of approximately 13% and has been positive nearly 90% of the time. Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results.
💰 Valuations have played a relatively modest role in the rally. Since the bull market began, next-twelve-month earnings have climbed approximately 90%, while valuations have expanded only 20%, suggesting earnings growth has been the primary engine behind the market's advance.