David Janny, Financial Advisor at Morgan Stanley, 500 Post E Road, Westport, CT (2026)

07/12/2022

Time has an amazing way of speeding up on us as we grow older.
No matter what age YOU currently are.
It's time for a timeout.
"REELING IN THE YEARS ONCE IN A LIFETIME" is my latest Investment Letter where I try to help put your personal "ONCE IN A LIFETIME" moment in better perspective.
As I've been warning all year, we've finally been thrust into a severe "FINANCIAL STORM" that requires YOU to understand and appreciate its significance and weigh its potential implications on your financial future.
As discussed in the Letter, 2022's "worst start ever" has been painful, but in my view is nowhere near running its full destructive course.
All roads lead to recession.
Corporate earnings reductions haven't really started yet.
Credit "DOMINOS" only appear to be starting to tip over.
Currency, commodity and interest rate volatility and ripples are impacting many markets and the global economy as a whole.
"SUPERMAN" has encountered his "KRYPTONITE" in the form of "INFLATION".
The global "FINANCIAL WAR" rages on.
We have certainly run into a "WALL" and have become "TRAPPED" in between a "ROCK AND A HARD PLACE".
I hope I can help YOU better grasp the dilemma. I look forward to your comments and appreciate your readership. I urge you to message me your email address to be placed on my free Investment Letter distribution list. More importantly, please reach out to me to set up a personal financial consultation.
Take a timeout.

"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

Learn more about From My Desk from David Janny at Morgan Stanley.

07/11/2022

"DOMINOS"
One of the themes I've been focused on this year is "DOMINOS". The rationale is that in bear markets and recessions, bad-news events have a way of tipping over other associated bad-news events. The musical inspiration is of course Van "The Man" Morrison's 1970 hit "Domino".
By now, I'm sure you're picturing a series of equal-sized tiles from the familar game "dominos" tipping over and setting of a chain reaction of falling dominos.
I'd like to change that mental picture and have you look at falling "DOMINOS" in a whole new light, courtesy of this brief video.
In financial markets and the economy, one bad event has a tendency of spilling over and creating negative circumstances and reactions in other market and economic areas. However, in markets and the economy, those events easily can become larger and more negatively impactful as the next "DOMINO" falls.
Anticipating "DOMINOS" is a prerequisite for success in difficult bear markets and recessionary environments as was made crystal clear during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Movie buffs may remember the Jinga blocks used to illustrate the same point in "The Big Short" movie.
My best advice to you is - beware falling "DOMINOS"

# economy
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"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

A domino can knock over another domino about 1.5x larger than itself. A chain of dominos of increasing size makes a kind of mechanical chain reaction that st...

07/09/2022

Do you have 6 minutes to learn a lot about the economic circumstances that we're currently enduring?
If you follow my posts and commentary, you could be familiar with the impactful charts and commentary from Eric Basmajian of EPB Research that I've often included and featured.
In my view, Eric has a terrific handle on "how" and "why" the economy is doing what it is doing and what that the future implications of that are.
He put out a "must-see TV" 6 minute YouTube video that quite frankly explains a lot. It is titled "This Is THE Most Important Chart in Macro".
In my view, two of many important points that it makes are:
- the major economic differences between today and the 1970s.
- the important difference between "leading" and "lagging" economic indicators.

I strongly encourage you to watch it and I welcome your commentary. It could be the best 6 minutes of time you've recently invested in.
Welcome to "THE GRAND ILLUSION"

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"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

The housing and durable goods sectors are the cyclical engines of economic growth. When these sectors are hot, the whole economy booms. But what happens as t...

07/04/2022

Happy Fourth of July!!
Let us enjoy our freedom, but not take that freedom for granted.

John Mauldin put out a very good piece this past weekend titled, :Time Has a Price". It is written after previewing a new book by Edward Chancellor: "The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest".
Mauldin makes many good points regarding the ills of excessive debt and the dangerous misdirected efforts of central bankers to control interest rates and push them to counterproductive low levels. The accumulated problems continue to get "kicked down the road" delaying the inevitable, but now larger, unintended negative consequences.
Welcome to today and welcome to the concluding chapters of "THE GRAND ILLUSION"!
This excerpt from Mauldin's note reinforces my previous sentence:

"From 2008 until recently the Federal Reserve and other central banks kept interest rates abnormally low. They did this because it is the time-honored central bank playbook. Make borrowing cheap and you can generate the kind of economic activity that spurs consumer spending and creates jobs. The trick is to stop the cheap borrowing before it gets out of hand, which they didn’t do (and still haven’t)."

He doesn't go into it much in this first of a series of articles on the topic. but to make the accumulation of excessive debt and ridiculously low interest rates even worse, it produced minimal economic growth and required increasingly larger doses of debt to produce any even short term fleeting benefit; I'm of course referring to Lacy Hunt's concept of "the law of diminishing return on debt".
As I wrote in my last Investment Letter "FRANKENSTEIN, SUPERMAN AND KRYTONITE": the "KRYPTONIITE"" of "INFLATION" has now completely neutered the FED or "SUPERMAN" and actually "forced" them to be raising interesrt rates and attempting to reduce their bloated balance sheet into an economy on the brink of recession and a stock market mirred in a bear market. Houston we have a problem - a big problem!
I urge you to reach out to me to see if I could be of help in these very challenging times.

https://hearsay.social/3yDac9i
"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

Early humans (the Sumerians, the Assyrians, the Babylonians, and eventually the Romans and the Greeks) developed a concept of “property” in which a certain person possesses a particular object. Then came the idea one could “loan” their property to another, giving up immediate control but ret...

07/01/2022

With half the year in the books amid much "worst half performance" talk making the rounds, don't just assume "the worst is over".
While performance among most asset classes has been brutal, the sell-offs in my view have generally been orderly rather than chaotic and full of fear.
A very important sector to watch in the second half of 2022 will be corporate credit. I've provided a link to some brief but telling commentary from Eric Basmajian of EPB Research that is another great example of an orderly rather fear-filled decline as illustrated by corporate credit spreads.
Corporate bond yields have had a big rise in yields, but that rise is largely attributable to the rise in treasury yields rather than the spread between treasuries and corporates wideneing.
A you can see in the chart below, the widening is ominously nowhere near the widening that has occurred in recent instances. If I'm right and "all roads lead to recession" (which is becoming apparent by the day), there's a strong likelihood of a lot more "widening" and rise in corporate yields to go.
In the meantime, in the real world, if you're a corporate "ZOMBIE" that needs to refinance debt, you're already running into a problem as your interest payments are likely a lot higher than they've been in the low interest rate world of the last number of years, even before significant "spread widening".
This is a great example of the crucial "DOMINOS" yet to fall, that I've directed you to try to think about, pay attention to and stay ahead of.
As I've been pointing out, a couple of other things to consider:
- downward earnings revisions have yet to pick up steam
- inflation and jobs are two of the most lagging economic indicators and the FED and many others are still fixated on them, leaving wide open the possibility of FED "over-tightening".
- the economic problem is very much a global dilemma

As I've been saying, we're in a "FINANANCIAL STORM"; from the looks of it a potential very large "STORM". ARE YOU PREPARED?

https://hearsay.social/3I4kBho
"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

The [Chart of Interest] post is a weekly blog spotlighting a highly informative chart and the significance on asset markets through the lens of the EPB Secular & Cyclical Framework.

06/28/2022

For those of you that enjoy horror and superhero movies, you're in a for treat. My latest Invest ment Letter is titled; "FRANKENSTEIN, SUPERMAN AND KRYPTONITE".
As the title suggests, there are 3 chapters to the ongoing economic and financial saga that I'll be focused on in this Letter.
The pre-pandemic economic and investment period leading up to the Feb/March 2020 recognition of COVID was a lot more problematic than many investors currently can recall. A brief history recounting the mounting issues is required in my view. "FRANKENSTEIN" was firmly in place and we were experiencing the "NORMALIZATION OF THE ABNORMAL".
The pandemic ushered in a precipitous market decline combined with the worst economic backdrop since the 1930s, all coming amid a global economic shutdown; this required a superhuman effort to "save the day". Responding to the call was "SUPERMAN".
"SUPERMAN''S" "EPIC"" effort created some of the strangest market and economic phenomena ever witnessed, with depression immediately turning into investing euphoria.
But alas, all superheroes, including “SUPERMAN” ultimately have a weakness that drastically reduces their effectiveness and ability to use their “super-powers”; in the case of “SUPERMAN” it is “KRYPTONITE”.
I urge you to read on to get a better sense of the current dilemma that "SUPERMAN" seems to be "TRAPPED" in and the "KRYPTONITE" he has been confronted with in 2022.
Not all horror and superhero movies neccesarily have a happy ending. I'll try to help YOU prepare for potential outcomes and point out signposts to watch for. As I've been mentioning in recent posts and Letters, we're in a "FINANCIAL STORM" that is creating one of the most important financial junctures in your lives and your ability to navigate this "STORM" could dictate much future personal circumstances. At the moment, we find ourselves "TRAPPED" in between a "ROCK AND A HARD PLACE".
I look forward to your comments and please message me your email to be placed on my Investment Letter distribution list to keep up with the frightening real life implications of "FRANKENSTEIN, SUPERMAN AND KRYPTONITE".

https://advisor.morganstanley.com/david.janny/from_my_desk?hss_meta=eyJvcmdhbml6YXRpb25faWQiOiAxMTgxLCAiZ3JvdXBfaWQiOiA0MjcyODEsICJhc3NldF9pZCI6IDEwMTA1ODAsICJncm91cF9jb250ZW50X2lkIjogOTk4MDQyNDYsICJncm91cF9uZXR3b3JrX2NvbnRlbnRfaWQiOiAxNTg0OTQ0Nzd9
"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

Learn more about From My Desk from David Janny at Morgan Stanley.

06/22/2022

There's no more debating the fact that we're squarely in a "FINANCIAL STORM". How bad will it ultimately get? No one really knows, but I continue to believe there is a mounting confluence and cross-current of troubling signs that portend for at least a realistic possiblity of the "STORM" becoming much more severe than many expect.

What's the point? We are all currently faced with a major personal financial test. Your ability to navigate through this "STORM" could very well dictate your personal financial standing for many years to come. Part one of your future success is your ability to mitigate the damage during the "STORM". Part two would be the personal fortitude and financial flexibility to take advantage of the opportunties that are ultimately available. We're likely no where near part two yet. To get to Part two, you need to be be prepared to get through part one as best as possible. My goal is to help you in that endeavor.

The linked Bloomberg commentary continues my focus on making you aware of the trouble that Japan is encountering on their now three decade "ROAD TO JAPANIFICATION". It's very relevant because they've run into a potential major "ROADBLOCK" that will serve as a lesson to the rest of the developed world economies that find themselves at varying points on the same "ROAD TO JAPANIFICATION". Ask yourself: "what is the end game for the BOJ"?

"STORM" damage so far, ZeroHedge reports:
"DB's head of thematic research Jim Reid, ... shows how 2022 is shaping up to be one of the worst years on record for financial markets.
In fact, as his chart of the day demonstrates, the S&P 500 is currently on track for its worst H1 performance since 1932 at the depths of the Great Depression, having shed -22.3% so far this year in total return terms. That just edges out 1962, when the index lost -22.2% over the first six months of the year.
But for those with a traditional 60/40 type portfolio, the news doesn’t get any better, since 10yr Treasuries are currently on track for their worst H1 since 1788."

Morgan Stanley's equity strategist, Mike Wilson, lowered his S&P 500 forecast yestrerday as this Zero Hedge article title explains: "Michael Wilson: The Bear Market Will End At 3,000 When The Recession Begins". Serious downward earnings revisions and mounting recession fears were the catalyst.

ARE YOU PREPARED?
# MARKET
https://hearsay.social/3QDXez3
"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

06/20/2022

As everyone seems to be extrapolating inflation far into the future, I just wanted to remind you that there are a couple of other considerations.
With the help of EPB Research's Eric Basmajian's blog post, " [Chart Of Interest] Record Debt + Record Rate Spike = ?", I'd like to reinforce a couple of points.

- Inflation as Basmajian shows is very much a lagging indicator, a very important and under-discussed factor that one needs to incorporate into any inflation forecast.
- The interest rate tigthening already implemented by both markets and the FED has been very severe (check out Eric's excellent chart), especially when considering it affects a much larger pile of debt than ever.
- "All roads lead to recession" and the evidence continues to mount. "Too much" tightening likely increases the severity of the recession.
- Yes, the "FINANCIAL WAR" and commodity weaponization could continue to pressure "essentials" like food and energy, but many other categories of goods' prices are cooling off and there is inventory building that margin-pressured retailers will need to get rid off.
- The consumer in my view is nowhere near as healthy as the "rose-colored glasses" "NARRATIVES" suggest. With "real income" under pressure and heavily directed at food, energy and shelter, discretionary spending looks very likely to come under pressure.

Questions for you to consider?
- Could severe asset price/wealth destruction lean on the economy very abruptly?
- Could credit "DOMINOS" start to tip over quickly?
- Does the FED really have control over those "DOMINOS", especially when the FED appears to be "TRAPPED" between a "ROCK AND A HARD PLACE"?
- Just as the FED overdid easing, could the "pressured" FED, pledging a Volcker-like tightening response, run the risk of overdoing tightening?
Don't let inflationary "recency bias" become too strong.

"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

The [Chart of Interest] post is a weekly blog spotlighting a highly informative chart and the significance on asset markets through the lens of the EPB Secular & Cyclical Framework.

06/15/2022

As I've been writing and commenting:
"We're in a "FINANCIAL STORM".
The frightening part as I wrote about in my Investment Letter "GIMME SHELTER FROM THE (PERFECT?) STORM" (link to my Letters below), is the the current "STORM" features a convergence of a number of negative factors that have been elements at one time or another in previous market turmoil over the last 100 years.
So while everyone is rightfully upset and focused on inflationary pressure, the "FINANCIAL WAR" and the rising probability of my concern that "all roads lead to recession", there are other "big" unwelcome global events occurring.
I've attached a Zero Hedge article titled, "Giant Hedge Fund Goes "Soros" On Bank Of Japan: Bets Billions That Japan, And MMT, Will Break", that I strongly encourage you to read.
Often present, when markets and economies enter a state of turmoil, are large moves both in currencies and interest rates. The U.S. dollar is experiencing a large bout of currency strength versus the increasing weakness in both the yen and euro, Dollar strength can create headwinds for the "OVER-INDEBTED" and "FINANCIALIZATION" world we crafted the last couple of decades. Not only are interest rates rising in these countries, sovereign credit spreads in Europe are also dangerously widening.
The significance of all of this is that the West has been fully committed to following Japan's path on the "ROAD TO JAPANIFICATION" (I've often written about this) and the "ROAD" is currently coming up against some serious "ROADBLOCKS", notably for Japan (as the article explains) and increasingly so for Europe as well. Severe recession, significant asset price pressure, credit concerns and now the exogenous inflationary "supply problems" emanating from an ill-timed "FINANCIAL WAR" and post-pandemic issues are creating difficult and "STORMY" economic and investing conditions.
Be aware, be PREPARED and stay tuned.
Could we be facing the unraveling of "THE GRAND ILLUSION"?

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"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

06/10/2022

Having fun financial fun yet?
The current degree of fun, or perhaps more aptly the degree of pain, is directly correlated to how PREPARED YOU have been for what is unfolding on the investment and economic landscape.
In my last Investment Letter I wrote about the particularly dangerous nature of the "FINANCIAL STORM" we are encountering. That of course is on top of the "FINANCIAL WAR" that we've officially entered this year, that continues to be a major burden on the West. By now hopefully you've recognized that global central bankers and politicians have become "TRAPPED" in between a "ROCK AND A HARD PLACE".
My question to you is how smoothly are YOU going to "BREAK ON THROUGH TO THE OTHER SIDE"? Conveniently, that's the title of my latest Investment Letter.
I'll try to help YOU understand what is occuring and what the potential implications and consequences may be for YOU and your financial future. I believe our financial and economic challenges are in the process of growing increasingly difficult.

Firstly, thanks for your overwhelming interest and support of my Investment Letters and posts.
Secondly, if you're not on my free Investment Letter email distribution list, please message me your email address.
Most importantly, I encourage you to reach out to me to set up a consultative call to see how this impacts YOU and YOUR family and to determine whether or not I could provide some assistance in your financial planning and help YOU "BREAK ON THROUGH TO THE OTHER SIDE".

"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

Learn more about From My Desk from David Janny at Morgan Stanley.

06/09/2022

Are recessions necessary?
As much as you and I would l;ike to answer "NO" that the question, the reality is that the answer is a resounding "YES".
Cleansing of financial and economic excess is periodically required and long-term a very healthy occurence.
The key for YOU and I is to be PREPARED!.
In my last Investment Letter, I wrote about the "FINANCIAL STORM" that we are "TRAPPED" in and the resultant pending recession. The dangers associated with this "STORM" are a mounting confluence of factors that have historically created financial turmoil when appearing on their own, but now appear to be converging simultaneously.
Recession has become a "dirty word" and an event that has been avoided at all costs by global central bankers and politicians, which makes the inevitable onset of the next recession all the more ominous.
I urge you to read the attached Charles Hugh Smith article, "There's No Stopping a Recessionary Reckoning" that confirms and details my suspicion of this nasty "convergence" of unpleasant economic and investment circumstances.
Welcome to "THE GRAND ILLUSION"!!!
Let me know if I can be of help getting YOU PREPARED for what is looking more and more inevitable by the day.
Also, I invite you to sign up to be placed on my free Investment Letter distribution list. Next Letter should be out in the next day or two. Message me. Thanks.

https://hearsay.social/3MBLSrS
"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

If there was only one causal factor nudging the economy into recession, it might be a mild, brief recession. But with all five conditions in...

05/26/2022

We're in a "FINANCIAL STORM"!
Let me repeat that - we're in a "FINANCIAL STORM"!

The question is, how severe is the "STORM"?
I try to help you assess the severity in my latest Investment Letter, "GIMME SHELTER FROM THE (PERFECT?) STORM".
My goal is to help provide YOU with some "SHELTER". Preparedness requires understanding the scope and the implications of what is occurring, why it is happening and the timing and vulnerability in relation to the pre-existing conditions in place.
Is this "THE PERFECT STORM"? I compare the current conditions to previous "STORMS" in financial history to help you draw some of your own conclusions, but I'll alert you in advance to the fact that we are experiencing "severe weather conditions" and there are many parallels to many previous "STORMS".
To help get you in the right frame of mind, I'll let the following Ayn Rand quote get you thinking:
"You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.”

I hope my Letter gets you thinking about your personal financial situation. I offer YOU the opportunity to set up a consultation with me to futher discuss the "STORM" ramifications on your circumstances.
My Investments Letters are a bimonthly "global macro" articulation of my views. I hope they inform, entertain and ultimately provide benefit. Message me your email address to be placed on my free distribution list.

"THE GRAND ILLUSION"
"TRAPPED"
"ROCK AND A HARD PLACE"

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"The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

This is a 403 error, and it's not as ominous as it sounds. Bitly can only show this page to people who have permission to see it. Maybe what you are looking for can be found at Bitly.com.

David Janny, Financial Advisor at Morgan Stanley

07/12/2022

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