11/04/2026
📊On Monday we said the midterms would add another force on rates. Democrats have now won control of the House and Senate, and so far the bond market's response is small. The 10-year Treasury yield is only slightly lower this morning and mortgage bonds are up, after the 30-year fixed ended Tuesday in the low 7s.
Bond investors expect divided government to limit new spending and borrowing, which eases some pressure on long-term rates. It doesn't reduce the existing deficit, and it hasn't changed expectations for the Fed. Markets still put the odds of a December hike near 80%, and Brent is still above $100.
The 20-25 basis point decline we mentioned Monday is an average over the three months after a midterm, so one morning doesn't confirm or rule it out. Barring geopolitical events, which can shift things at any moment, our next market mover is Friday's October jobs report.
If you're deciding whether to buy or refinance this month, get in touch and we'll go over the numbers.
(Source: Mortgage News Daily index as of November 2026. National market averages shown for educational tracking; individual quotes are tailored to your specific scenario.)
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