12/10/2025
What does today’s Fed decision really mean for YOUR mortgage rate?
As a mortgage nerd, I often geek out on data. For the first time in awhile, I believe that rate cuts and market moves are dare I say "exciting" to even the average consumer. Whether you are on the cusp of buying property yourself or looking for an opportunity to access equity through a cash out refinance, you are likely finding yourself paying more attention these days.
So, this post is not for my colleagues that are experts or follow this data all day every day. This is more for the general consumer which simply likes to be informed and perhaps understand just a little bit more. Let me break it down as best I can.
We are all in agreement that the Federal Reserve will likely make a cut to the Fed Funds Rate later this afternoon. At the time I am writing this, I believe the odds of a .250% cut is right around 87% likely. What you might find interesting is that there is actually much more that goes in to these cuts and how it impacts mortgage rates. The Fed will make the announcement on the decision to adjust rates. Immediately after, a press conference will be held. This is where the magic happens!
With the overall consensus that rates will be reduced, mortgage rates have already been impacted. The press conference magic is where we get a taste of what we can expect as far as mortgage market trends in the not so distant future. Believe it or not, the language and tone of the press conference comments will signal what we can expect. In this case, with a cut imminent, the Fed comments will either considered "Hawkish" or "Dovish". (No, I am not making this up!)
Hawkish commentary would signal that they recognized that a cut was necessary at this time, but the state of the economy and inflation makes it difficult to say what direction we can expect for 2026. Dovish commentary, on the flipside, would signal that 2026 will likely come with more rate cuts and that the trends of the market currently support this.
In my opinion, yes a rate cut is a move in the right direction for mortgage rates. But, the outcome of the press conference will truly tell us what we can expect down the road. I believe most are expecting hawkish commentary, which will likely come with downward rate trends but at a less aggressive speed.
Now for the disclaimer, mortgage rates are like the less stable little brother that is easily influenced by what's happening around them. We can do our best to try and be the "expert" and predict what will happen, but none of us have a crystal ball.
If you are now feeling compelled to nerd out with me, tune in at 2:30pm Eastern to see what happens.
(This is the ONLY use of ai in this post! I couldn't whip up a graph on command 😁 Yes, rates are lower than 6.50%, but these numbers are simply for illustration purposes)
Here’s the comparison chart showing projected 30-year mortgage rates under hawkish vs. dovish cut scenarios:
