Josh Schrofer -FSB Mortgage Team, NMLS 690522

Josh Schrofer -FSB Mortgage Team, NMLS 690522 My mission is to create an Exceptional Experience through Extraordinary Ex*****on, everyday

A lot of buyers are not as far away from buying a home as they think.That has been one of my biggest observations over t...
04/24/2026

A lot of buyers are not as far away from buying a home as they think.

That has been one of my biggest observations over the last few months.

I will talk with someone who says:

“We are probably looking this fall.”

“We are not sure if we are ready yet.”

“We just want to get an idea of where we stand.”

Then we go through the numbers.

Actual payment.

Actual cash to close.

Actual price range.

Actual options.

And a lot of the time, the reaction is:

“That is not as bad as I thought.”

That does not mean everyone should buy right now.

It does not mean every number works.

It does not mean buyers should stretch beyond what feels comfortable.

But it does mean this:

The unknown usually feels heavier than the math.

The 2nd thing I have noticed is how quickly timelines change

A buyer may think they are six months out.

Then they get preapproved.

Then they understand their options.

Then they start watching listings differently.

Then the right house shows up.

Then suddenly they are writing an offer.

That is why getting preapproved is not just about getting a letter.

It is about replacing assumptions with facts.

And in this market, facts matter.

Because guessing from the sidelines and making a confident decision are two very different things.

Why mortgage rates are at 3 year lows even as the Fed pauses cuts.This week’s inflation data all but confirms the FED is...
01/14/2026

Why mortgage rates are at 3 year lows even as the Fed pauses cuts.

This week’s inflation data all but confirms the FED is likely to pause rate cuts in Jan.

Yet mortgage rates are sitting at some of the best levels we’ve seen in ~3 years.

That feels contradictory. It isn’t.

Here’s the clean explanation you can pass on to clients 👇

1️⃣ Inflation is “not hot enough” to push rates higher.
Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2 percent target, but it is stable, not accelerating.
• CPI shows shelter and services staying sticky
• PPI shows producer costs moderating

That combination removes upside inflation risk, which matters more to long-term rates than whether the Fed cuts this month.

2️⃣ Mortgage rates don’t follow the Fed funds rate
The Fed controls short-term money.
Mortgage rates follow long-term expectations, primarily the 10-year Treasury and mortgage-backed securities demand.

Markets are already pricing:
• Slower economic growth
• Eventual easing later in 2026
• Lower long-term inflation risk

Mortgage rates move ahead of the Fed, not after it.

3️⃣ Liquidity matters, and the mortgage market is getting it
Recent large-scale MBS buying has acted like QE without calling it QE.
When demand for mortgage bonds rises:
• Yields fall
• Lender spreads tighten
• Rates improve even without Fed action

This is a direct tailwind for mortgage pricing.

4️⃣ The bond market is doing the heavy lifting
Rates today are being set by:
• Bond investors, not the FOMC press conference
• Forward expectations, not headlines
• Capital flows, not sound bites

That is why mortgage rates can fall during a Fed pause.

Bottom line
The Fed pausing does not mean mortgage rates stall.
Right now, the bond market is telling us something different than the headlines.

And that disconnect is exactly why opportunities exist for:
• Buyers on the fence
• Sellers worried about affordability
• Homeowners waiting for “perfect” rates

The market moves before the story catches up.

Jobs Data Just Changed EverythingToday’s revisions paint a very different picture of the labor market than what we’ve be...
09/09/2025

Jobs Data Just Changed Everything
Today’s revisions paint a very different picture of the labor market than what we’ve been told for the past year:

▪️ The jobs number was just revised down 911,000 from April 2024–March 2025. that’s 76,000 fewer jobs per month than originally reported.
▪️ August payrolls 22,000 jobs added, one of the weakest in years.
▪️ The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021

Markets are now pricing a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut this month:
▪️ 80% chance of a .25% cut
▪️ 20% chance of a .50% cut

This isn’t just about the Fed—it’s about what happens next:

▪️ Mortgage Rates: A cut should translate into lower borrowing costs, directly boosting purchasing power for homebuyers.
▪️ Real Estate & Assets: In a world of stubborn inflation + falling rates, asset owners will win big. Real estate, equities, and hard assets all stand to benefit.
▪️ Opportunity Window: These moments don’t come often—when policy, psychology, and purchasing power align.

The market narrative is shifting fast. What looked like stability is giving way to a softer labor market, a pivoting Fed, and the potential for one of the most significant opportunities in real estate and asset markets we’ve seen in years.

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, now is the time to start planning.

08/05/2025

Powell is OUT as FED President! Here's Trump’s Shortlist to Replace Him

President Trump has reportedly narrowed his picks for the next Fed Chair.

1. Kevin Hassett
2. Christopher Waller
3. Kevin Warsh

My preference order and why:

1. Kevin Hassett – Best for real estate & markets
▪️ Hassett is a Trump aligned economist who strongly supports lower rates and looser monetary policy.
▪️ If appointed, he’d likely push for rapid cuts. This is exactly what the housing market wants right now.
▪️ Could drive 30-year fixed rates well below 6% in the next year, reigniting affordability and demand.
▪️ If you’re in lending, real estate, or trying to buy a home—Hassett is the rocket fuel.

2. Christopher Waller – Balanced, steady support
▪️ A current Fed Governor and experienced economist. Recently dissented in favor of rate cuts—so he’s not afraid to act when needed.
▪️ Would likely take a gradual, data-driven path to lower rates—not as fast as Hassett, but still supportive.
▪️ Waller brings credibility and pragmatism. Less aggressive than Hassett, but still market-friendly.

3. Kevin Warsh – Most hawkish, least supportive of housing.
▪️ Former Fed governor, known for his inflation sensitivity and more traditional “strong dollar” mindset.
▪️ Wall Street respects him, but he’s far less likely to deliver rate cuts quickly.
▪️ May prioritize inflation stability over affordability or market stimulation.
▪️ If Warsh gets the job, expect slower action and higher-for-longer mortgage rates.

If you’re an agent, buyer, lender, or investor… this is the moment to start paying attention. The next Fed Chair will shape how easy (or hard) it is to buy a home in 2026.

06/30/2025

The Setup Is Bullish — For Markets and Mortgages

If you’re wondering whether now is a good time to buy, here’s what I’m seeing:

** Inflation is back below 2.5%.
** GDP just printed negative in Q1.
** Trillions of dollars are still parked in money markets.
** Market is betting Fed will start cutting rates by Sep.

When inflation drops and rates follow, capital moves. Risk assets get re-rated. Real estate picks up. And those who acted before the headlines often benefit the most.

Here’s the thing:

The Fed may have been slow to raise rates in 2022… now they may be too slow to cut in 2025. But once the cutting cycle begins, the window of opportunity narrows — fast.

For homebuyers, that means:
More competition
Less inventory
And likely higher home prices — even if rates drop.

My take?
The smart move isn’t to wait. It’s to prepare, understand your numbers, and take action before the next rate cut.

If you’re ready to run the numbers on what’s possible, I’m here to help. Let’s make your move before the market does.

🧠 Quick Take: Big Economic Moves You Should Know (June 9–11 Recap)If you're in real estate, lending, or investing, this ...
06/11/2025

🧠 Quick Take: Big Economic Moves You Should Know (June 9–11 Recap)

If you're in real estate, lending, or investing, this past week delivered a lot of signal through the noise. Here's your executive summary:

🔸 Inflation (CPI) cooled in May
• Up just 0.1% MoM, 2.4% YoY—softer than expected
• Shelter still driving most of the inflation
• Translation: Rate cut odds just got stronger
🔸 Federal Reserve Outlook
• Markets now pricing in a September rate cut
• Powell’s term ends in '26—Scott Bessent is front-runner to succeed him
• Fed expected to hold steady next week, waiting on jobs & inflation data
🔸 Labor & Growth
• ADP jobs report: Just 37,000 private sector jobs in May—lowest in 2 yrs
• Q1 GDP shrank by 0.2% (annualized)—a warning sign
• OECD cut U.S. growth forecast, citing rising tariffs and global uncertainty
🔸 U.S.–China Trade Deal (Yes, really)
• Framework reached:
✓ Rare-earth exports back on
✓ Student visas reopened
✓ U.S. tariffs stay high (~55%)
• Deadline for full deal: August 10 (“Liberty Day”)
• Until then, markets are cautiously optimistic—but skeptical
🔸 Market Moves
• Stocks up, yields down on inflation news
• Goldman Sachs is flashing yellow on tech stocks: momentum slowing

What it means for real estate & lending pros:
📉 Rate pressure may ease—time to re-engage buyers sidelined by affordability
📈 Tariffs & GDP contraction signal a slower economy—watch the job market
💬 And that China deal? It's real, but fragile. Still, it’s helping cool global jitters.

They say it takes 10,000 hours to become an expert at something...Well, I’ve now clocked over 30,000 hours as a mortgage...
04/18/2025

They say it takes 10,000 hours to become an expert at something...
Well, I’ve now clocked over 30,000 hours as a mortgage loan officer.

Here’s what I’ve learned from the trenches:
🔹 Speed matters, but clarity wins. People don’t just want fast answers — they want clear, confident ones they can trust.

🔹 Every deal is personal. Behind every application is a story: a growing family, a big move, a second chance. Never lose sight of that.

🔹 Realtors are your partners, not just your referral sources. The best results come from mutual respect, fast communication, and shared wins.

🔹 The best loan officers aren’t just number crunchers — they’re problem solvers. Guidelines shift, timelines get tight, and emotions run high. The real value is in navigating the gray areas with precision and calm.

🔹 Rates go up, rates go down — but good advice is always in demand.

If you're in this industry — or working with someone buying or selling — know this:

Experience doesn’t just count. It compounds.

Let’s make your next move your smartest one yet.

The Why Behind What I DoI've learned that people don't just do business with you because of your expertise - they work w...
04/02/2025

The Why Behind What I Do
I've learned that people don't just do business with you because of your expertise - they work with you because of who you are.

Over the past 18 months, I've been obsessed with leveraging AI tools to level up every area of my life - from hitting my running goals to analyzing mortgage trends, optimizing my workouts, and serving my clients better. And I've discovered that my biggest passions share a common thread:

My 5 Core Passions:

🏃‍♂️ Running & Fitness: Consistency, strategy, and perseverance are key to success in both running and business. Whether I'm training for a sub-20-minute 5K or guiding a client through a complex home purchase, I know that small improvements add up to big wins.

🏡 Mortgage & Real Estate: Home buying is personal. It's about big decisions, emotions, and having the right people in your corner. I love helping people unlock their next chapter.

📊 Data & Performance Tracking: I thrive on taking complex information and making it simple. Whether it's tracking heart rate zones or studying interest rate movements, I help clients see the bigger picture and make informed decisions.

👨‍👩‍👧 Family & Parenting: As a dad, I get it - buying a home isn't just about numbers. It's about creating memories, building a future, and having the right support system. I bring this perspective to every conversation.

💰 Finance & Investing: Whether it's real estate, interest rates, or cryptocurrency, I love empowering people to build wealth and make smart financial moves.

Let's Connect!

While my posts often focus on business, I wanted to share more about what drives me - both professionally and personally. At the end of the day, people work with people they trust and connect with. If we share a similar mindset, let's build a relationship!

🚨 Five Years Later: The Cost of “Free Money” 🚨Five years ago—March 27, 2020—the government rolled out the first round of...
03/26/2025

🚨 Five Years Later: The Cost of “Free Money” 🚨

Five years ago—March 27, 2020—the government rolled out the first round of COVID-19 stimulus checks under the CARES Act. At the time, it was seen as necessary. But looking back, we have to ask: Was it worth it?

Here’s where we stand in March 2025:
💰 National debt has skyrocketed past $34 trillion
📈 Inflation crushed wages and home affordability
🏡 Mortgage rates soared as the Fed scrambled to course-correct

The idea was simple: put cash in people’s pockets. The reality?
👉 Too much money chasing too few goods sent inflation surging
👉 Stimulus became the norm, not the exception
👉 The Fed overcorrected—keeping rates too low for too long, then hiking aggressively, making homeownership harder than ever

For those of us in real estate and mortgage lending, we’ve seen both sides of this rollercoaster—record-low rates and a red-hot market, followed by affordability struggles that have priced many buyers out.

Five years later, one thing is clear: "Free money" wasn’t free. We’re all paying the price now.

💬 What do you think? Was the stimulus a necessary move, or are we dealing with the fallout of short-term thinking?

🚨 Big Move for Iowa Basketball: Ben McCollum Takes Over the Hawkeyes! 🚨Iowa has officially hired Ben McCollum as the new...
03/24/2025

🚨 Big Move for Iowa Basketball: Ben McCollum Takes Over the Hawkeyes! 🚨

Iowa has officially hired Ben McCollum as the new head coach, and this could be a game-changer for the program. If you don’t know much about McCollum, here’s why this hire is so exciting:

🏀 Proven Winner – 4 national titles at Northwest Missouri State, a dominant season at Drake, and a reputation for building disciplined, high-IQ teams.
📊 Modern Coaching Approach – His system focuses on ball movement, spacing, and efficient shot selection, making Iowa a team that could compete with the best in the Big Ten.
🎯 Recruiting & Development – Iowa has struggled to land elite recruits, but McCollum’s system develops players into winners, no matter their star rating.

🔥 Big Picture for Iowa Basketball & the State:

The Hawkeyes are getting a fresh identity after Fran McCaffery’s era.

With McCollum at Iowa and TJ Otzelberger at Iowa State, Iowa basketball is on the rise statewide.

If McCollum can bring his winning culture to Iowa City, the Hawkeyes could become a serious Big Ten contender and a perennial NCAA Tournament team.

Address

West Des Moines, IA
50266

Telephone

+5154025563

Website

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