06/15/2026
๐๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ด๐ฒ ๐๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ-๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ฏ๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ
Last night I had a very interesting exchange with Ruth Carson at Bloomberg re. the market response to the - agreement.
It was inarguably good news, but at the same time it would clearly be premature to start hanging the bunting. Arriving at a final, functional agreement will be fiendishly complex, and maintaining the ensuing peace won't be any easier.
If we have indeed entered a post-war phase, the investment opportunity set doesn't look all that different than it did pre-war.
US equity valuations are stretched, and as I discussed with Ruth, โ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ฌ-๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐ป๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐ผ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐ป๐น๐ ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐ผ-๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ, ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐ป๐ผ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ผ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ณ๐๐ฟ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฎ๐ฟ โ ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ณ๐๐ฟ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฑ๐ผ๐๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ ๐พ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐๐ โ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐น๐ฑ.โ
๐๐ป ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐, ๐๐ฒ'๐๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฎ๐ด๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ผ๐๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐บ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด.
Moreover, we think ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐ค๐ฅ๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐๐ก๐๐ฉ๐ฎ ๐ค๐ ๐๐๐จ๐ ๐๐จ ๐ฆ๐ช๐๐ฉ๐ ๐ช๐ฃ๐๐๐ง๐ฅ๐ง๐๐๐๐.
Investors with the liquidity to pounce when dislocations occur will be glad they had the financial freedom to do so. And per my comments on yield spreads above, with so little additional compensation for stretching further out in the calendar, why wouldn't you stay at the short end of the curve?
Here's the link to the article written by Ruth, Winnie Hsu, and Abhishek V. - read it, it's very good:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-15/hedge-funds-reopen-pre-war-playbooks-as-iran-risks-recede