Trader's Mind - Live Markets and Economy Discussions and Analysis

Trader's Mind - Live Markets and Economy Discussions and Analysis Striving To Make Sane Decisions In An Insane World! Welcome to my page and thank you for your interest. For Educational Purposes Only!

My name is Deyan, and I have been involved in trading stocks, options and futures for over 5 years now. The goal of this page is to help you become a better trader, as well as expand your knowledge into the endless sea the world of Finance is. Unlike most sites, videos and podcasts, I am not here to offer you some unrealistic and flashy promises, but to help you achieve better financial results, a

s well as helping you learn along the way. I've been trading primarily into S&P500 etfs, options and futures for over 5 years now, and during this time have managed to navigate quite diverse and different markets, while managing to beat the returns on the S&P500 by quite a wide margin in all years with the exception of one. My goal is to share my thoughts, trades, ideas and resources, so you can become a better trader, as well as a more educated individual. By following my page, you will get a look into my portfolio, live updates about every single trade executed, as well as market recaps and analysis. All this will include multiple posts, updates and trade executions every trading day in addition to market recap and analysis. I would make this page less of a long reading lessons, and more of live trades, short updates and ideas. Thank you for your interest and welcome to the beginning of a journey that I can promise to be challenging, but never boring! All Ideas expressed are solely mine and are not a Financial Advice, nor a recommendation to buy/sell securities!

12/13/2023

All eyes on The FED today, and mostly on their Dot Plot and projections for Interest rates next year!
Given that rates won't be raised anymore, the important path now is how many cuts are expected into next year!

12/12/2023

Watch for the 30yr Bond Auction at 1pm EST!

12/12/2023

VIX stretched like a Spandex... beyond my understanding who is still collecting pennies in front of a steamroller!

06/13/2023

CPI (Inflation) Read for May is out:
CPI (MoM) - 0.1% MoM vs 0.4% Prev. - Good
CPI (YoY) - 4% vs 4.9% Prev. - Good, but this is mostly due to Gasoline Prices much lower than the comparing period a year ago (and ban a fall of a cliff, there is a big chance Gasoline prices reverse higher now);
Core CPI (MoM) - 0.4% vs 0.4% Prev. - Bad, It has been stuck in the 0.4-0.5% for the past 5 months - this is the metric FED is most concerned with, and showing the most stickiness
Core CPI (YoY) - 5.3% vs 5.5% Prev. - Bad, despite slightly falling, we just can't break below 5% on Core for quite some time now

06/08/2023

I do believe that Sector Rotation is the last phase of a Denial!

06/08/2023

In other news: Europe has officially entered a Recession, even though the one everyone is hoping for here: last quarter GDP was revised lower to -0.1%, and that marks the second Quarter with negative growth (Q4 was also a -0.1%).
The only problem I see with the Reacceleration Narrative there is that I don't see it coming anytime soon because of higher Rates just starting to bite there too. You don't just magically reaccelerate when Financial Conditions are getting tighter. My bet is that we will get more Negative GDP Quarters Across the Pond in subsequent months!

06/08/2023

Interesting data on Initial Jobless Claims today. They came in higher than the Previous week and than Expected:
261k vs 235k Exp, and 233k Prior
Continuing Claims: 1757k vs 1794k Exp, and 1800k Prior

Continuing Claims fell despite Initial Spiking, but bear in mind that Continuing is reported with a week lag the the Initial!

Is that another State misreporting, and subsequently revised lower again in following weeks, or is that the beginning of the softening of the Labor Market (as the reported 3.7% Unemployment in Household Survey)?
I guess we will have to wait for subsequent weeks for determination if the trend is changing or if this week's report was just a blip!

06/07/2023

Credit Card Debt keeps Surging Even as Interest rates hit Record High!

MoM it increased by $13.5bln and is at a New Record High of $1.24trln! Up 13% YoY

We are finally in an Extreme Greed Territory, right on time for the massive Treasury induced Liquidity Drain!Trade Accor...
06/07/2023

We are finally in an Extreme Greed Territory, right on time for the massive Treasury induced Liquidity Drain!
Trade Accordingly!

06/07/2023

The Great Liquidity Drain is starting... Treasury announces that it plans to bring the Balance in its General Account to around $425bln by end of June. Add $95bln in QT, and we are looking at around $500bln drain in Liquidity only in June... and this will continue until as discussed in a previous post hits around $2trln in Liquidity drain by end of 2023

06/06/2023

I am opened to discussions with how AI is going to change/ not change our lives!
Will try to play Devil's Advocate and take the Opposite Position of your view!

How low can you go, how low can you go!The Market's Fear Index - VIX at 1 and a half year lows!Buying Protection is extr...
06/06/2023

How low can you go, how low can you go!
The Market's Fear Index - VIX at 1 and a half year lows!
Buying Protection is extremely cheap at this level of VIX, just because seems like nobody wants it!

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