Bowen Asset Management

10/16/2026

The producer price index (PPI) advanced 1.3% from a month earlier — the most since March 2022 — and 6.3% from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Thursday. Excluding food and energy, the gauge was up 0.7% last month and 5% from a year ago. Both came in above estimates.

Wholesale and retail trade services margins jumped 1.4%, the most since April, according to the figures. Margins have been under scrutiny for clues to the extent to which companies are absorbing tariff-related costs or passing them on to customers.

On Wednesday, the CPI for September rose 0.6% compared with August, as expected by economists, and 3.7% on a year-on-year basis, marking an acceleration from 3.4% the previous month. More than half the monthly increase came from gasoline, which soared 9.1%.

US retail sales rose in September by 0.8% after a revised 1.3% gain in August, with eight out of 13 categories posting increases. Sales excluding motor vehicles and gas, however, rose only 0.2% last month. So-called control-group sales, which feed into the government’s calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product, increased 0.1% after surging the prior month.

The figures indicate consumers took a breather as the third quarter ended and price pressures mounted. Faster inflation is taking a bigger toll on Americans’ paychecks and squeezing their budgets. Inflation also continues to wallop workers. The September CPI numbers mean real average hourly earnings contracted by 0.7% last month, the most since May. Real earnings have been shrinking for six straight months now, the longest string since the 2021-23 cost-of-living surge.

These reports suggest underlying inflation remains firm alongside rising fuel prices. It also likely keeps the Federal Reserve officials on track for an additional interest-rate increase before the end of the year, either at the Oct 27-28 or Dec 8-9 meeting.

10/12/2026

This week is a busy week with major U.S. banks kicking off third-quarter earnings season along with the September consumer price index, the producer price index and retail sales. The inflation prints as well as retail sales are the last ones before the next Fed meeting on Oct 28.

Because bank earnings are another window into how well the economy is doing, investors will be looking at the earnings for clues to lending growth and credit quality. Bank third quarter earnings are expected to increase by 20% from last year for the largest banks with investment banking and trading revenue higher. Higher interest rates slowed capital markets activity late in the quarter. Investors will be looking for whether higher rates will drive up deposit costs and weaken credit quality.

The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2026 is scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Year-over-year CPI is expected to rise around 3.6% to 3.7% (compared to 3.4% in August), according to polls by Reuters and major bank forecasts.

Producer-price data for September will be released a day later on Thursday and will give a steer on how much pipeline inflationary pressures are increasing given recent sharp rises in energy prices.

Also on Thursday, retail sales data for September will be released. Economists expect a monthly increase of 0.4% (or roughly 0.35% depending on the consensus model), following a 1.2% rise in August.

Money markets now only price a 19% chance of a rate increase on Oct. 28, having previously priced a probability of this of up to 70%. A quarter-point Fed rate increase in December is fully priced in, however.

10/12/2026

Economic news matters to the stock market, -- because as the economy goes, so too goes company profitability. Rising unemployment foreshadows lower economic growth, and falling unemployment tells stock investors that growth is on the way. When these data points are reported they can move stocks, while stocks may remain stable if the numbers are generally what investors expected to see. To see the full list of economic releases for the month and/or the definitions, please check out our website:
https://bowenasset.com/bowen-reports/economic-release-dates/

Oct 12 US Bond Market Closed for Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day
Oct 13 Small Business Optimism Index for Sept
Oct 13 Existing Home Sales for Sept
Oct 13 Quarterly Earnings Begin with Banks
Oct 14 CPI Index for Sept
Oct 15 Producer Price Index for Sept
Oct 15 Retail Sales for Sept
Oct 16 Import and Export Price Index for Sept
Oct 16 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for Sept

The Bowen Asset Management team's Economic Release Dates page notes important economic release dates happening each month. The page is updated monthly.

10/05/2026

Economic news matters to the stock market, -- because as the economy goes, so too goes company profitability. Rising unemployment foreshadows lower economic growth, and falling unemployment tells stock investors that growth is on the way. When these data points are reported they can move stocks, while stocks may remain stable if the numbers are generally what investors expected to see. To see the full list of economic releases for the month and/or the definitions, please check out our website:
https://bowenasset.com/bowen-reports/economic-release-dates/

Oct 5 ISM Services PMI for Sept
Oct 6 International Trade Balance for Aug
Oct 7 FOMC Minutes Released from Sept Meeting
Oct 12 US Bond Market Closed for Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day

The Bowen Asset Management team's Economic Release Dates page notes important economic release dates happening each month. The page is updated monthly.

10/02/2026

The US added fewer jobs than expected in September and wage growth slowed; non-farm payrolls increased only 29,000, well below estimates and revisions cut 60,000 jobs from the prior two months. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2%, though that partly reflected an increase in the participation rate to a four-month high of 61.8%, which is a positive sign. But in another surprise, average hourly earnings edged up a weaker-than-expected 0.1% from August and rose 3% compared with a year earlier — the slowest annual wage growth since 2021 and probably trailing inflation for the sixth consecutive month.

The slowdown in job growth was driven by payroll declines in government, information, professional and business services, and financial activities. Health care, construction and manufacturing added jobs. Manufacturers added jobs for the fourth straight month, albeit at the slowest pace since May (when the industry shed jobs). Surveys have shown steady growth, healthy demand and rising employment in the manufacturing sector but also skyrocketing input costs and some supply chain snarls. September’s 9,000 employment gain isn’t much, but it’s better than 13 straight months of job losses, which is how the sector ended 2025.

The job market remains in a low-hire, low-fire era that provides stability but can be frustrating for Americans used to more opportunity. That dynamic has made it harder for newcomers to break into the job market, or for those who have been laid off or seeking new jobs to find new roles.

Not only was headline growth much slower than expected the revisions to the previous two months are noticeable. At the same time there’s no hint of any wage driven inflation. Policymakers are more worried about inflation than jobs. Today’s jobs data may lean against an October hike, but the inflation trend has yet to meaningfully shift. A reading on consumer prices for September, due Oct. 14, is likely to weigh more heavily on the timing of further rate increases and how far the current tightening runs.

09/28/2026

Economic news matters to the stock market, -- because as the economy goes, so too goes company profitability. Rising unemployment foreshadows lower economic growth, and falling unemployment tells stock investors that growth is on the way. When these data points are reported they can move stocks, while stocks may remain stable if the numbers are generally what investors expected to see. To see the full list of economic releases for the month and/or the definitions, please check out our website:
https://bowenasset.com/bowen-reports/economic-release-dates/

Sept 29 JOLTS for Aug
Sept 30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2nd Qtr 2026,3rd Release.
Sept 30 Personal Consumption Expenditures for Aug
Sept 30 ADP National Employment Report
Oct 1 Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI® for Sept
Oct 2 Employment Situation for Sept

The Bowen Asset Management team's Economic Release Dates page notes important economic release dates happening each month. The page is updated monthly.

09/16/2026

The Federal Reserve unanimously raised their benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.0% range for the first time in more than 3 years. The Fed rarely makes just one adjustment after it concludes a turn toward raising or lowering rates is warranted, because a quarter-point higher or lower doesn’t do much on its own to change borrowing conditions. The committee showed strong backing for another rate increase before the end of the year (most likely at the December meeting and not at the October meeting, which is right before the midterm elections) and took out an expected rate cut next year.

No single official sees there’s upside risks to the unemployment rate. Instead, the predominant concern is inflation. In his press conference, Fed Chair Warsh repeatedly emphasized that the economy is strengthening and said that today’s hike removes a “dose of accommodation” from policy.

The central bank has made no progress toward its 2% goal since mid-2025, including after cutting rates three times late last year to guard against a labor-market slowdown. Instead, the Iran war has lifted energy prices, and the AI boom has driven an investment surge that has buoyed the economy and markets.

Rate increases won’t produce more crude oil or slow an AI build-out that is largely insensitive to borrowing costs, since the capital is committed and expected returns dwarf what a quarter point changes. What they can do is cool the rest of the economy enough to ease the strain on supply.

09/14/2026

Economic news matters to the stock market, -- because as the economy goes, so too goes company profitability. Rising unemployment foreshadows lower economic growth, and falling unemployment tells stock investors that growth is on the way. When these data points are reported they can move stocks, while stocks may remain stable if the numbers are generally what investors expected to see. To see the full list of economic releases for the month and/or the definitions, please check out our website:
https://bowenasset.com/bowen-reports/economic-release-dates/

Sept 15 Federal Reserve: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
Sept 16 FOMC Statement and Fed Chair K Warsh News Conference
Sept 16 Retail Sales for Aug
Sept 16 Import and Export Price Index for Aug
Sept 17 Pending Home Sales Index for Aug
Sept 17 New Residential Construction for Aug
Sept 18 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for Aug

The Bowen Asset Management team's Economic Release Dates page notes important economic release dates happening each month. The page is updated monthly.

09/11/2026

The August CPI released today rose 0.4% from July, as expected, with more than a third of that increase coming from a 3.9% surge in gasoline prices. Housing costs also picked up, with a 0.3% rise that was the highest in three months. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, climbed 0.3%, which was greater than expected. A jump in wireless phone services contributed notably to that bigger-than-expected increase, with categories from airfare to used vehicles and education prices also bumping it up.

On a year-on-year basis, the CPI was up 3.4%, matching forecasts, and the core CPI came in at 2.4%, also matching the median estimate and the smallest rise since the cost-of-living surge began in the spring of 2021. The artificial intelligence investment boom showed up in a 25.4% year-on-year rise in computer software and accessories, the biggest on record.

The producer price index, which was released on Thursday, rose 0.4% in August from the prior month — the most since May — and 5.4% from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Thursday. Excluding food and energy, the gauge advanced 0.2% last month and 4.6% from a year ago. It can take 3-5 months for changes in the PPI to filter through into the CPI with food, energy and wholesale goods seeing rapid consumer-level adjustments within 1-4 weeks.

Looking ahead, there’s more inflationary pressure in the pipeline. The average retail price of diesel fuel jumped to $6.06 a gallon in early September, according to a AAA report. This is a 60 % rise since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. Fuel accounts for as much of 30 percent of food costs in the United States.

Traders boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike with a 90% chance of a move at the next Fed meeting on Sept 15-16 and two increases fully priced in by year-end.

09/07/2026

Economic news matters to the stock market, -- because as the economy goes, so too goes company profitability. Rising unemployment foreshadows lower economic growth, and falling unemployment tells stock investors that growth is on the way. When these data points are reported they can move stocks, while stocks may remain stable if the numbers are generally what investors expected to see. To see the full list of economic releases for the month and/or the definitions, please check out our website:
https://bowenasset.com/bowen-reports/economic-release-dates/

Sept 7 US Markets Closed for Labor Day
Sept 8 Small Business Optimism Index for Aug
Sept 10 Existing Home Sales for Aug
Sept 10 Producer Price Index for Aug
Sept 11 CPI Index for Aug

The Bowen Asset Management team's Economic Release Dates page notes important economic release dates happening each month. The page is updated monthly.