04/20/2026
📈 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠—𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐬?
U.S. equities are riding a three-week winning streak, with major indexes hitting fresh highs. The catalyst? Easing geopolitical tensions as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, sending oil prices lower and investors back into risk assets.
But beneath the surface, there are some important signals worth watching:
💡 𝐎𝐢𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐟—𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐭: Prices dropped sharply, yet remain significantly elevated vs. pre-conflict levels—keeping inflation risks in play.
💡 𝐅𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 (𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐧𝐨𝐰): Markets are pricing in a near-certain pause this month, with rate cut expectations creeping back up—but not guaranteed.
💡 𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐡, 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐧: Tech is doing the heavy lifting, while most other sectors are flat or seeing declining estimates.
💡 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: After a sharp rally, companies may face a high bar this earnings season, raising the risk of “sell the news” reactions.
Even with strong headline numbers—80% of early reporters beating EPS expectations—the broader picture is less uniform.
💬 As Schwab notes, this may be a moment to lean into diversification and discipline, not big directional bets.
👉 Key watch this week: earnings from names like Tesla, American Express, and UnitedHealth Group—all of which could test how durable this rally really is.
Listen to today’s Schwab Market Update: https://www.schwab.com/learn/schwab-market-update
CCharles Schwab