09/29/2026
Retire in 2000, and your TSP runs out at age 71. Retire in 1988 with the exact same plan, and it lasts 30 years with money left over.
Both retirees start with the same TSP and take the same amount out every month. Both keep 75% in the C Fund and 25% in the G Fund.
The retiree who started in 2000 averaged about 8.2% a year. That's a good return, and the money still didn't make it past 71.
Then came 2008. The C Fund lost about 37% that year, which is roughly a 26% drop on a 75/25 split. Meanwhile, the monthly withdrawals kept coming out at low prices.
Start dates only 3 years apart can end very differently. Retire in 2012, and the account finishes 30 years later with about 8 times what the 2015 retiree has left.
This is sequence of returns risk. The order of your returns in your first 10 years of retirement matters more than the long-term average. And the TSP takes each withdrawal proportionally from every fund you hold, so in a down year you're selling C Fund shares too.
Watch William run the numbers year by year in the video. Then book a Discovery Call to test your own TSP against the worst stretches in market history.