12/20/2024
📢 PCE Inflation Update 📊
The latest PCE report is in, and here’s what you need to know:
🔸 Headline Inflation rose +0.1% in November (0.128% exactly), up 2.3%-2.4% YoY, slightly cooler than expected.
🔸 Core Inflation (excludes food & energy): +0.1% MoM, holding steady at 2.8% YoY 📉
🔸 Shelter Costs: Finally showing signs of cooling 📉 with a smaller monthly rise of 0.22%, though still overstated year-over-year at +4.78%.
💡 If shelter reflected real-time trends, core PCE would be closer to 2.3% YoY!
🏦 Fed News:
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammock wants to pause on cutting rates to ensure inflation stays on track toward the 2% target. Meanwhile, NY Fed President John Williams sees the Fed’s stance as restrictive by 83bps, signaling they could cut up to 3–4 times next year if inflation improves or unemployment rises.
💵 Consumer Impact:
• Incomes rose +0.3%, but spending climbed +0.4%, leading to a drop in savings 💸
• Savings Rate fell to 4.4%, the lowest since 2008 (adjusted for COVID).
🛍️ With November typically a strong month for spending, this might hint at consumer weakness heading into the new year.