09/15/2026
We find ourselves in the middle of September, hopefully the final heat wave of 2026 before fall settles in. I hope to enjoy a long fall before winter kicks into gear. If you buy in to the predictors of winter, I just saw today the persimmon seed holding a knife and a spoon meaning "cutting cold" and "shovels of snow." Make of that what you will.
Markets for week ending 9/11 finished lower as we acknowledged the 25th anniversary of the tragedies inflicted on this country. Markets finished lower across the board with the S&P -0.78% (+12.77% ytd), the Dow -1.56% (+10.64% ytd), and the Nasdaq -0.64% (+13.78% ytd).
The Fed meets this week and the markets are now pricing in a high likelihood of a rate hike on Wednesday. Treasury rates at both the 10 and 30 year level have continued to rise. In turn, this has pulled mortgage rates higher. With the European Central Bank (ECB) raising rates last week, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) very likely to do so this week, not following suit could cause foreign currencies to strengthen vs the US dollar. As many as three additional rate hikes by the Fed by the summer of 2027 are now being speculated. While this is all fluid, factors including energy prices, declining wage growth, receding tariff effects, and the hostilities with Iran could all factor in to how the Fed ultimately proceeds
Have a great week!