10/15/2026
π Nine years.
That's how long Tesla's been promising this Roadster. First showed it in 2017.
Tonight at 7:55 Central they finally unveil it β at a SpaceX facility in Waco, Texas. π
But the car isn't the story.
β‘οΈ THREE THINGS ARE RIDING ON ONE EVENING:
1β£ There might be a FLYING demo. Everything Tesla's teased points to SpaceX thrusters strapped to this thing. Musk posted this morning the demo would be a "banger" β then added "probably metaphorically, though some chance literally."
He's joking about it blowing up. I think. π
2β£ Retail traders have themselves CONVINCED a Tesla-SpaceX merger gets announced tonight. And this isn't just forum chatter β Barclays actually modeled it. Their scenario had SpaceX buying Tesla in an all-stock deal, leaving Musk with about 37% ownership and 56% of the voting power.
3β£ Musk said this week SpaceX could be worth $100 TRILLION in under 10 years.
Scale on that: Ron Baron is one of the most bullish Tesla investors alive. He said $20 to $50 trillion in a decade and people called HIM crazy.
Musk just said 2 to 5 times that.
β οΈ NOW HERE'S THE PART THAT MATTERS TO YOUR MONEY:
Tesla has confirmed exactly ONE thing about tonight. They're showing a car.
The flying. The merger. The $100 trillion. None of that is confirmed. That's hope stacked on hope stacked on hope β and all of it is already in the price.
I've watched this movie. September 3rd, Tesla launched the Cybercab. Months of buildup. They delivered it β real robotaxis on real streets in Austin.
And the stock fell 6% the next day.
Why? The expectation had gotten more expensive than the news. Everybody who was gonna buy the hype already bought it. When the thing actually showed up, there was nobody left.
π SO HERE'S HOW I'D THINK ABOUT TONIGHT:
If they announce a merger β that's genuinely huge and it's a whole different conversation.
If they show a beautiful car that flies for 10 seconds and everybody claps β ask yourself who's left to buy tomorrow morning.
Heading in: TSLA's down about 3% today. SPCX down about 4.5%.
And don't forget β Tesla reports earnings next Wednesday the 21st. That one's about MONEY. Tonight's about the STORY.
Don't confuse the two.
π¬ Does the Roadster move this stock tomorrow, or does it already cost too much? Tell me before 7:55. π