John Mark Rogers, Senior Vice President/Investments - Stifel

11/04/2026

Democrats swept the midterm elections and will have majorities for the next two years in both the House and Senate. Even though the Democratic majorities will be larger than anticipated, the base case remains that legislative gridlock will prevail and that little will get done in the next two years. However, "must-pass" bills will give Democrats the opportunity to pass limited parts of their agenda. This is briefly discussed below. The midterm elections also impact what legislation might be considered during the upcoming lame duck session. The outgoing Senate majority could prioritize nominations over legislation since Republicans will be unable to confirm Trump appointees after 2026. This could crowd out several bills from consideration this year. Senate Republicans will also have to decide whether to pass a reconciliation bill to increase defense spending and possibly raise the debt ceiling. However, given the mood among Republicans after Tuesday's landslide, another reconciliation bill seems like a long shot.

Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aaAT35

11/02/2026

In this note, Chief Washington Policy Strategist, Brian Gardner, forecasts how the equity markets might react on Wednesday morning to the midterm election results (to the extent the outcome is known). The market may have a knee-jerk reaction followed by a later reassessment. Regardless of the outcome, however, the base case is for gridlock in the coming two years. Few major policy changes are anticipated. Also given is the final outlook for the election. The race for the Senate majority is still too close to call, but if forced to make a prediction, a 50/50 Senate with Vice President Vance breaking the tie in favor of the Republicans is expected. It is noted that if the Senate majority is dependent on the Alaska race, then it could be several weeks before the outcome is known. The race for the House has been over for some time. The only question is the size of the Democrats' majority. It is thought it will be roughly in line with the post-World War II era during which the party not holding the White House has gained an average of 26 seats.

Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aVFMtW

10/30/2026

Stifel's Chief Investment Officer, Michael O'Keeffe, recently examined why the midterm elections may do little to change the broader direction in Washington. In this week's , he focuses on where the election could matter more, exploring potential impacts on trade, healthcare, financial services, defense, domestic manufacturing, and clean energy, and what those policy shifts could mean for investors.

https://stifel.info/SL103026

10/23/2026

Stifel's Chief Investment Officer, Michael O'Keeffe, recently explored how artificial intelligence is advancing through competition and innovation, as well as the opportunities and risks created by its rapid adoption. In this week's , our CIO Office shifts focus to the capital that is financing AI's growth. Stifel's Chief Investment Officer, Michael O'Keeffe, examines how companies are funding data center and computing infrastructure, who is providing that capital, and why understanding financing structures is just as important as understanding AI's long-term potential when evaluating investment opportunities.

Read the full report here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/au6KSu

10/21/2026

This note looks at how several nonfinancial sectors could fare if Democrats win the midterm elections. As explained in the previous note, which covered financial services, a gridlock is expected. In such a situation, the Trump administration's regulatory agenda might be slowed down but not stopped. Democrats would lack the ability to reverse most of the Trump legislative agenda that has been implemented over the past two years.

Gridlock does not mean that no legislation will pass, but Democrats will be limited to pressure points (i.e. "must-pass" legislation) in order to enact some of their agenda. This note discusses what might be possible.

The view of the state of the election has not changed. Democrats are favored overwhelmingly to win the House. The race for the Senate majority is more of a coin flip. It is thought that Republicans have a better chance to remain in power there than do the prediction markets.

Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aa0oVs

10/20/2026

This month, Stifel's Chief Investment Officer, Michael O'Keefe looks beyond the midterm elections to artificial intelligence's continuing influence on the economy and markets. Our CIO Office revisits capabilities, adoption, and investment spending, along with the questions surrounding financing, power, productivity, and profits.

Read the full report here: https://stifel.info/ISB102026

youtube.com

10/15/2026

Third-quarter earnings season is underway, and expectations are high. Companies in the S&P 500 are projected to deliver nearly 30% earnings growth, with analysts raising estimates during the quarter rather than lowering them. In this week's |Lines, Stifel's Chief Investment Officer, Michael O'Keeffe explores what's driving the stronger earnings outlook, why growth remains concentrated in certain sectors, what company reports may reveal about consumers and artificial intelligence investment, and why some believe forward guidance may matter as much as the results themselves.

https://stifel.info/SL101526

10/13/2026

Political tailwinds have benefited the financial services sector during the first two years of President Trump's term. We doubt that a Democratic win in the midterm elections would create a headwind for the industry, but, it might not enjoy as strong of a following breeze as it has to this point. In this note, it is discussed how the political environment could change for financials. Some headline risk is expected, especially for the Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs). However, few changes in policy are expected, although it is acknowledged there is an increased risk for the credit card industry.

Also updated are thoughts on the state of the midterms. The base case remains: The House is likely to flip, while the Republicans still maintain a slim advantage to retain the Senate (an admittedly nonconsensus view). In the Senate, Democrats lead the polls in enough races to win, but several of the leads are within the margin of error. It has been questioned whether they will hold up.

Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/a_ruda

10/09/2026

The third quarter brought continued economic growth and gains in U.S. equities, even as renewed conflict in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher and persistent inflation prompted the Federal Reserve to raise rates. In this edition of Quarterly Market Perspectives, we examine how these developments are shaping our year-end outlook and what they could mean for investor positioning.

Read the full piece here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/amQRkE

10/08/2026

Space is no longer just the domain of governments and astronauts. Falling launch costs, private-sector innovation, and growing strategic investment are expanding the range of commercial opportunities beyond Earth. In this week's , Stifel's Chief Investment Officer, Michael O'Keefe, explores how competition is accelerating the development of the space economy, the industries already benefiting from space-based technologies, and why investors should pay attention to a theme that could shape economic growth for decades.

https://stifel.info/SL100826