05/21/2026
My weird financial take of the day.
A thought on Powerball vs Bitcoin mining
If you buy Powerball tickets regularly, here’s a nerdy comparison.
A Powerball jackpot ticket has odds of about 1 in 292 million. If you bought 52 tickets over a year, your jackpot odds would be roughly 1 in 5.6 million, assuming each ticket has a separate combination. Powerball lists the jackpot odds at 1 in 292,201,338.
Now compare that to a tiny Bitcoin miner like a Bitaxe Duo, which runs around 1.63 TH/s. Bitcoin’s total network hash rate is currently around 1 zettahash per second, depending on the day.
At that scale, a small miner has roughly a 1 in 11,600 annual chance of finding a Bitcoin block.
That means the tiny Bitcoin miner may have around 480 times better odds of hitting a Bitcoin block in a year than 52 Powerball tickets have of hitting the Powerball jackpot.
To be clear, both are long shots. This is still lottery math.
But here’s the difference I like:
With Powerball, the ticket is dead after the drawing.
With a small Bitcoin miner, you own a little piece of infrastructure. It keeps hashing every second. You learn something. You participate directly in the Bitcoin network. And if electricity is cheap or free, it becomes a fun, low stakes way to replace lottery spending with something more interesting.
So my take is simple:
If you already spend money on Powerball tickets, consider buying a small Bitcoin miner instead.
The odds are still wild.
But at least the machine keeps working after Saturday night.