Yamen Fellah

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Despite a spike in volatility and an almost 8% pullback from the year's high, equities ended the month of March and the ...
04/03/2023

Despite a spike in volatility and an almost 8% pullback from the year's high, equities ended the month of March and the first quarter higher. In our Weekly Market Wrap, we share thoughts on what's behind the market's resilience and discuss the key factors we'll be monitoring that have the potential to shape the narrative in the months ahead.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

In just over two weeks, the uncertainty in the U.S. regional and global banking system has notably altered the path of f...
03/27/2023

In just over two weeks, the uncertainty in the U.S. regional and global banking system has notably altered the path of financial markets and potentially the path of the Federal Reserve. For the Fed, it now has a balancing act to navigate – supporting the banking system with liquidity on one hand and battling inflation with interest rate increases on the other. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we discuss how we see opportunities forming in both the equity and bond space in the months ahead, beyond the more recent defensive posturing, as markets start to look past the economic downturn and toward a recovery ahead.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Pressures on the banking sector were front and center last week, with headlines taking markets on a roller coaster ride....
03/20/2023

Pressures on the banking sector were front and center last week, with headlines taking markets on a roller coaster ride. Though anxieties could persist for a while, we don’t think they'll morph into a structural crisis. Nevertheless, the pressure on the sector serves as a reminder that restrictive policy tends to uncover vulnerabilities that are lurking in the financial system.

At the anniversary of the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in four decades, the recent bank troubles could potentially mark a turning point in monetary policy. In our weekly market update, we offer some perspective on what last week's developments mean for interest rates, the economy and the markets.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Renewed stock market swings continued last week in response to the latest developments in the outlook for Fed policy and...
03/13/2023

Renewed stock market swings continued last week in response to the latest developments in the outlook for Fed policy and employment conditions. A two-day congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell dampened the market's mood as he emphasized the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, signaling additional rate hikes ahead. The February jobs report grabbed the spotlight by week's end as markets looked to the latest employment trends for clues on the health of the economy.

There's plenty of information to digest, but it's important for investors to keep an eye on the broader view. While this current bear market has lasted longer than average, stocks are holding on to solid gains so far in 2023. We think the maturity of this bear market should also be viewed as progress toward what we expect will be a more sustainable recovery as we progress through the year. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we take a look at the current investment conditions, how they compare to history and what all of this tells us about the potential road ahead.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a strong start to the year, market volatility seems to have returned. While we would expect market volatility to c...
03/06/2023

After a strong start to the year, market volatility seems to have returned. While we would expect market volatility to continue near-term, we are also watching for key inflection points that may indicate the early innings of a more sustainable rally ahead. We highlight three potential conditions that we believe would support better market returns longer term: 1) inflation moving lower, 2) the Federal Reserve pausing its rate-hiking cycle, and 3) earnings revisions bottoming.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a strong and steady rally to start 2023, markets have seen a return of volatility of late, including a decline las...
02/27/2023

After a strong and steady rally to start 2023, markets have seen a return of volatility of late, including a decline last week spurred by renewed concerns over further interest rate hikes from the Fed. This is not a new issue, but it has prompted markets to reevaluate expectations for the economy ahead. No two cycles are exactly the same, but we do think there are noteworthy similarities between current conditions and those in the 2001 bear market.

In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we discuss the parallels with the past and what they suggest about what might lay ahead for investors.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

• The market rally this year has been impressive. Most asset classes have participated, and the laggards of last year ha...
02/13/2023

• The market rally this year has been impressive. Most asset classes have participated, and the laggards of last year have particularly outperformed. These outperformers include technology, small-cap stocks, international equities, and even more speculative parts of the market.
• However, last week some uncertainty and volatility returned to markets. The S&P 500 was down over 1.0% on the week, its worst week of the year thus far. Treasury bond yields also moved higher, while oil prices climbed as well. Markets may be now approaching more of a fork in the road – does the rally continue or does it fade from here?

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a year in which nothing seemed to go investors' way, 2023 has, so far, been the polar opposite. Stocks are up hand...
02/06/2023

After a year in which nothing seemed to go investors' way, 2023 has, so far, been the polar opposite. Stocks are up handsomely while interest rates are down markedly. Last week brought a heavy dose of fresh information on each of the three central drivers for the market this year: the Fed, the jobs market and corporate profits. The outcome was another up week for the market, and while this recent rally is both welcome and reasonable, we don't think it should be viewed as confirmation that the coast is clear. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we share our thoughts on several popular market takes and what last week tells us about the path ahead.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Markets are off to a good start in 2023, but this comes on the heels of an extremely challenging 2022, in which both sto...
01/30/2023

Markets are off to a good start in 2023, but this comes on the heels of an extremely challenging 2022, in which both stocks and bonds logged declines for the year, something that hasn't occurred since 1994. There's good news for investors, however, as history shows down years for the stock market have typically been followed by healthy gains. While the clouds have not completely cleared, we think there are reasons to be optimistic. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we examine what often happens after down years for the market and what it could mean for the year ahead.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a positive start to the year in markets – in part driven by a better inflation narrative in the U.S. and globally ...
01/23/2023

After a positive start to the year in markets – in part driven by a better inflation narrative in the U.S. and globally – this past week investor sentiment seemed to turn somewhat lower. Equity markets turned negative mid-week after economic data pointed to a weaker U.S. consumer and manufacturing sector. Take a closer look at the rest of our key takeaways.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

The U.S. headline CPI eased further, with December marking the smallest annual increase since October 2021. Paired with ...
01/15/2023

The U.S. headline CPI eased further, with December marking the smallest annual increase since October 2021. Paired with the November and October data, core inflation has now slowed for three consecutive months, suggesting that a pattern of disinflation is emerging. Price pressures remain too high for the Fed's comfort, but the gradual cooling likely sets the stage for the Fed to downshift further in the pace of rate hikes. Read our latest weekly market update for thoughts on what the recent data could mean for the markets and investment strategy.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

While inflation, rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainties have posed challenges for the market, the labor market has re...
01/09/2023

While inflation, rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainties have posed challenges for the market, the labor market has remained a bright spot. This was highlighted by the most recent payroll figures which showed that employment conditions remain quite resilient. Markets, however, took the news on the chin under the assumption that ongoing strength in the employment picture could threaten the downward path for inflation. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we note three key takeaways from the latest jobs report and what this may mean for the financial markets in 2023.

A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

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