Greenberg Financial Group

05/29/2026

Monthly Market Update

May is historically a quiet month for the market and coming off the best month for the S&P 500 in 6 years we thought it might be a place where we would see some profit taking. However, investors chose to ignore the war, rising oil prices and rising interest rates and focused instead on the AI revolution, sending the S&P 500 higher every single week. The month ended with another move to new all-time highs, equaling the longest consecutive week winning streak for the S&P 500 since 1963. Last month we asked if the market can be this strong with so many things working against it, what will happen if global news starts to improve. In May we saw more of the same, uncertain news that seemed to have no impact on the market. At the end of the month the S&P 500 had gained 5.1% and is now 10.7% higher this year. Technology stocks continued to lead the rally with a year-to-date gain of 16%. Oil prices are still elevated but did move 16% lower during May and gold was fractionally lower. The interest rate on the 10-year Treasury edged higher.

The month began on a Friday with the S&P 500 moving to a new all-time high. The first full week of the month was full of war news with Iran shooting missiles at its neighbors while peace talks were stalled. However, the market did believe some type of agreement was imminent, which sent oil prices lower nearly every day and a better-than-expected government jobs report on Friday helped the S&P 500 end the week with a gain of 2.3%. The following week peace talks appeared to be stalled which sent oil prices steadily higher, but the market shrugged it off to focus on President Trump’s trip to China thinking the Chinese might be able to intervene and end the war. The S&P 500 moved steadily higher during the week. When Trump left China without a peace deal the S&P 500 erased most of those gains but did end the week 10 points higher which kept the win streak alive. Interest rates took center stage during the 3rd week as inflation concerns, primarily tied to oil, became a focus. The interest rate on the benchmark 10-year Treasury hit the highest level since January 2025 and the rate on the 30-year bond hit a 16-year high. Midweek hopes for peace sent oil and interest rates sharply lower and helped the S&P 500 end the week with a gain of .9%. The final week was shortened by the Memorial Day weekend but was more of the same. Peace and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz continued to be evasive, but oil prices and interest rates moved lower, and stocks continued to move higher.

Summer has traditionally been a good period for stocks with June, July, and August all trending higher. Last month we said if the market can repeatedly hit new all-time highs with war, rising oil price, rising inflation and rising interest rates, what will happen when things actually start to get better. We ask the same question this month. Valuation continues to be a topic and while stocks are richly valued, the valuations are not silly. The forward price to earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is currently around 21.5 versus the 10-year average of 19.5. A valuation approximately 10% above the historic norm would seem reasonable in the AI revolution we are living. With that said, we have not had a consecutive week rally of this magnitude in 63 years so a pullback would appear to be imminent and appropriate. With that said, barring some type of headline making event, one would expect pullbacks to be modest and an opportunity to add to names we have been watching as an end to the war could bring lower oil prices and higher stock prices.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website, or your favorite podcast platform. Simply type “Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.

04/30/2026

Monthly Market Update

April has historically been one of the better months for stock market performance, but we suggested at the end of last month that the war would likely play a role in market performance. However, here we are at the end of April with oil prices and interest rates higher and the war in some type of standoff, but the S&P 500 had its best month since the end of the pandemic 6 years ago! Not only did the widely followed index erase all the loss from March, it set several new all-time highs during the month, not something we expected to see in this environment. Several times during the month it appeared the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz might end, and the market greeted those reports with a rally to new all-time highs. It appears investors are viewing war and higher oil prices as temporary and are focusing on the artificial intelligence revolution. The term we use for these types of moves is FOMO, fear of missing out. At month end the S&P 500 had rallied 10.4%, the best month for the widely followed index since the pandemic and is now 5.3% higher for the year. Oil prices rose nearly 4% and gold ended the month down 1.5%. The rate on the 10-year Treasury ended the month little changed from the end of March.

The month began on a Wednesday before the 3-day Easter weekend and with little in the way of market moving news the S&P 500 edged .8% higher. Despite the Good Friday holiday, the government did release the monthly jobs report, and it was much better than expected which kicked off the first full week of trading with a nice rally. Mid-week Trump issued a 2 week cease fire that ignited an explosive move higher in the major indices that continued through the end of the week. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.6%. The rally continued into the following week with the tech heavy NASDAQ having its longest consecutive day winning streak in 34 years! On Friday Trump reported the Strait of Hormuz had reopened which sent oil down $10 a barrel and the S&P up 4.5% for the week. The following week we learned the Strait had not opened and oil once again began to climb. Trump extended the ceasefire which helped the S&P 500 end the week with a fractional gain. The final week saw stalemate as Iran continued to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, Trump continued the cease fire and oil prices moved steadily higher. On the last day of the month strong earnings from several major companies propelled the S&P to another all-time high.

May has historically been a higher month 60% of the time, but it is the only month with an average return of 0. We expect some resolution of the war and rising oil prices during May and if April is an example, the market wants to go higher. If the S&P 500 can gain 10% in an environment as uncertain as we have had, it will be interesting to see what happens if there is some resolution of war and rising oil prices. In mid-April we saw a $10 plunge in the price of oil on a report the Strait of Hormuz had reopened and while the report turned out not to be true, it is an example of what can happen once oil begins to flow again. Stock valuations are elevated, which is not unusual considering the artificial intelligence revolution we are experiencing. While the risk of a major downside move is diminished, a headline making event can always change that thesis. We believe the biggest risk to the market is a long-term continued rise in interest rates and oil which would have negative impacts on economic growth.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website, or your favorite podcast platform. Simply type “Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.

03/31/2026

Oil Weighs on Stocks

For several months we have been noting stock valuations were stretched and a 5% to 10% pullback could come at any time. However, with the enthusiasm for AI and the likelihood of lower interest rates ahead, we felt it would take some type of headline making news to move the market lower. The Iran war was that headline making news. It was not the war per se, but the rise in oil prices and inflation expectations that came with the war that caused the concern. We often say valuations do not matter, until they do. The thing the market hates most is uncertainty and the war has given us that in spades with the S&P 500 losing ground for 5 straight weeks. Excitement about AI has been driving technology stocks higher but higher oil prices and rising interest rates have weighed on that market leading sector. At the end of the month the S&P 500 had lost 5.1% and is now 4.6% lower this year. The important technology sector lost 4.8% and is down 7.1% in 2026. Oil prices were the biggest concern with a massive 52% price increase in March, and interest rates also rose with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury going up 9%.

The month began with news the U S and Israel had launch a massive air strike against Iran. The market opened lower on Monday but worked its way back into positive territory by days end. However, over the next few days reality set in as we saw the biggest one week jump in oil prices in history. In addition, we learned the economy had lost jobs in February for the first time in several months and investors began hitting the sell button driving the S&P 500 down 2% at week’s end. The second week began with a rally after oil prices spiked to $119 over the weekend but then dropped back to $80. We then learned Iran had closed the important Strait of Hormuz which send oil prices higher and stocks lower. The S&P 500 ended that week down another 1.6%. Oil prices continued to rise during the 3rd week of the month, and we also received a report that wholesale inflation jumped at an annualized rate of 8.4%. The inflation report sent interest rates to the highest level since early January and that, combined with higher oil prices, sent the S&P 500 down another 1.9%. The last full week of the month was more of the same with rising oil prices and lower stock prices. The market leading technology sector came under pressure on concerns about rising oil prices increasing the costs of running their data centers. The week ended with another 2.1% loss for the S&P 500. On the last day of the month the S&P 500 opened 1.7% higher before closing the day with a gain of nearly 3% on talk Trump may want to end the war with Iran.

April has historically been the 3rd best month for stock market performance with a positive close 65% of the time. This April will clearly not be a normal month with the uncertainty surrounding the war. A prolonged conflict with oil prices and interest rates continuing to rise will likely put more pressure on stock prices, while an end to hostilities should create a more positive environment. We have seen the valuation concerns we have been talking about somewhat mitigated by the selling in technology stocks and we are seeing many stocks selling at price to earnings ratios we have not seen in years. It might be a good time to be reminded that every stock market decline in history has been an opportunity to buy, but we need to see a firming of technology names. There will be an end to the selling, but we will only know that in hindsight. We have been using the market decline to slowly put some money to work.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website, or your favorite podcast platform. Simply type “Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.

03/20/2026

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03/18/2026

03/02/2026

Monthly Market Update

January was the 9th positive month in the last 10 for the market. We know trees do not grow to the sky and with February being a historically non-descript month for the market, we wondered if it might be a place where we would see some profit taking. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been driving the market and while we expect the trend to continue, valuations have become extended. Early in the month we did see some market weakness, but not because of doubts about AI, but about concerns of what AI might do to other segments of the economy, particularly the software space. There was also concern about the debt companies are taking on to fund AI. Those concerns created selling pressure mid-month that sent the S&P 500 to the lowest level this year. We continued to get a plethora of corporate earnings reports with 75% above expectations and the S&P 500 moved in and out of positive territory. At month end the S&P 500 had lost .9% and is now up .5% for the year. This was only the second down month in the last year for the widely followed index. The NASDAQ saw most of the selling and ended the month down 3.4%. Concerns about an attack on Iran sent oil prices another 3% higher and gold continued its rally gaining more than 10%. Interest rates moved lower with mortgage rates hitting a 4-year low.

The month began with a plunge in the prices of both bitcoin and gold. In addition, we began to see the first concerns about AI disruption which sent the software ETF down 6%. By Thursday, the NASDAQ 100 had dropped by over 1000 points, but a rebound in bitcoin on Friday helped stabilize the market and the S&P 500 ended the week with a loss of just .1%, while the tech heavy NASDAQ shed 2%. The second week saw a continued rotation from growth to value that pushed the 30 stock Dow Indutrial average to an all-time high and above 50,000 for the first time. The NASDAQ tried to rebound, but near week’s end concerns about AI debt sent the index sharply lower and the S&P 500 ended the week down 1.4%. The third week was shortened by the President’s Day holiday and a rebound in tech stocks gave the market a better tone. At week’s end the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s tariffs were beyond his authority which lifted the market and the S&P 500 ended with a gain of 1.1%. The final week the market dealt with Iran uncertainty, tariff concerns, and the State of the Union, but the headline news was earnings from Nvidia. Nvidia is the most important company right now because the future is AI and Nvidia is the most important company in that space. Wednesday night they did what they have done for 2 years, reported revenue and earnings above expectations with strong guidance. However, because the stock had rallied 14% in the 2 weeks ahead of earnings, the report was seen as an opportunity to book profits, and many tech stocks were caught up in the selling. On the last trading day of the month, we learned January wholesale prices advanced at a stronger pace than expected and that cemented a down month. The S&P 500 was down .4% for the week.

March has been an average month for market performance, closing higher roughly 60% of the time. Corporate earnings reports will wind down so our focus will be elsewhere. The market will continue to be influenced by tariff issues, AI debt and disruption concerns and geopolitical concerns. Valuations continue to be above historic norms, but the selloff in the tech space has helped bring that important sector to a more reasonable price to earnings ratio. We have been focusing on things that can go wrong, but there are several things that should go right. The economy continues to be solid which is driving corporate earnings, the next move in interest rates is likely lower, AI advances and spending will continue, and we are expecting to see record refunds from Trump’s tax bill. A 5% to 10% “correction” can come at any time for many reasons, but we would be buyers of a tradeable dip.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website, or your favorite podcast platform. Simply type “Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.

01/30/2026

Monthly Market Summary

Coming off a 3rd straight year of double-digit gains for the S&P 500 we wondered if we could make it 4 straight years. This is the 4th time in the last 50 years we have seen 3 consecutive years of double-digit gains, but only once did the double digit win streak last for more than 3 years. 1995 through 1999 saw double-digit gains for 5 straight years. A megatrend is described as “a large-scale, long-term, and transformative shift that impacts societies, economies, and industries worldwide for decades”. In the late 90’s that megatrend was the internet, and many think the adoption of artificial intelligence is another megatrend. If it is, we could see stock market gains for a prolonged period. The “January Effect” is a seasonal stock market anomaly that points to a positive January being followed by a positive year more than 80% of the time. At the end of the month the S&P 500 had gained 1.4%, but the big winners were the small cap stocks with that index gaining 5.6%. Oil prices jumped nearly 15% and gold exploded to a new all-time high before closing the month with a gain of 12%. The interest rate on the benchmark 10-year Treasury edged higher.

The month began on a Friday following the 3-day weekend. Over that weekend we learned the United States had taken the President of Venezuela into custody. The uncertainty of this event sent futures on a wild ride, but when the market opened on Monday it was “rally on” and that buying continued Tuesday sending all major indices to new all-time highs. On Friday we learned only 50,000 new jobs were created in December, which was seen as encouraging the Fed to lower interest rates and the first 6 days ended with the S&P 500 gaining 1.8%. The following Monday we learned the DOJ had opened a criminal investigation of Fed Chief Powell which was greeted with a sigh. The next day we learned CPI in December was unchanged from where it was in November of 2024, but geopolitical events continued to capture the headlines. At the end of the week, we began seeing Q1 earnings reports that were encouraging, but the S&P 500 ended the week with a loss of .4%. The 3rd week began on Tuesday after the Monday MLK Jr. holiday and was dominated by more Trump tariff tantrums related to taking possession of Greenland. The Europeans responded in kind and fear of a trade war with our allies, sent the S&P 500 more than 2% lower. Over the next 2 days cooler heads prevailed, and Trump announced he had the framework for a deal on Greenland. For the week, the S&P 500 was down .4%. The final week had a positive tone as 32% of all the companies in the S&P 500 reported quarterly results that were, in general, better than had been expected. On the last day of the month Trump appointed Fed veteran Kevin Warsh as the new head of the Federal Reserve and the market reacted by eliminating the gains from earlier in the week. The week ended with the S&P 500 fractionally higher.

February is one of those months with no clear direction. In January we see the largest inflow of funds into 401k plans, and we also know money managers are going to be buying back stock they sold for tax losses in December. In February we have no seasonal trend. Over the last 50 years the month has produced an average return of -.1% and has been up just 4 more times than down. The S&P 500 has moved higher for 9 of the last 10 months so it would not be surprising to see some profit taking. However, corporate earnings reports will keep coming and they have thus far been solid, which is supportive of stock prices. We also expect geopolitical events, both known and unknown, to play a role during the month. We do believe we are in an artificial intelligence megatrend, but stocks are richly valued and we would not be surprised to see a pullback that we would view as an opportunity.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website or your favorite podcast platform. Simply type in” Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.

01/07/2026

https://youtu.be/5qbfGtJIWrE

Are you worried about outliving your money? Or just feeling lost when it comes to making a real financial plan? On this episode of Money Matters, Sarah Peter...

01/02/2026

Monthly Market Update

December is historically a good month for stocks with the S&P 500 closing higher more often than any other month. However, the widely followed index had closed higher for 8 consecutive months, and we have been expecting a period of consolidation. Early in the month it appeared we might be looking at a period of profit taking as doubts again resurfaced about the massive amount of spending on artificial intelligence (AI). By the middle of the month, weakness in technology names had sent the S&P 500 down nearly 2%, but a solid quarterly report from chipmaker Micron reignited tech stocks and brought the index back to unchanged for the month. Christmas week has traditionally been positive for stock performance, and that was the case again this year, but a selloff on the last day of trading for the year erased those gains. At month end the S&P 500 had lost only 4 points in December, but that was enough to end an 8-month winning streak. However, the widely followed index did end the year with a gain of 16.4%. The tech heavy NASDAQ led the way in 2025 with a gain of 20.4%. Oil was 20% lower for the year while gold was one of the strongest performers with a gain of 64%. The rate on the 10-year Treasury declined nearly 9% during the year.

Coming off an 8th straight month of gains in November we began December with the market moving higher. A 7% drop in Bitcoin on day 1 followed by a 7% rally the next day rattled traders, but the market stabilized and moved higher towards the end of the week. Investors are aware of December’s tendency to move higher, so the bias was to the upside, and the S&P 500 ended the first week with a gain of .3%. The focus during the second week was the Federal Reserve Open Market committee decision on interest rates, and they did lower rates by 25 basis points as expected. The rotation out of tech began on the 11th when Oracle’s quarterly report created concerns about the company's financial condition and sent the stock 13% lower. The following day AI giant Broadcom issued a solid quarterly report, but traders reacted by sending that stock 10% lower. The S&P 500 ended the week with a loss of .6%. The rotation out of AI related names continued into the following week before Micron’s impressive quarterly report on the 18th reversed the tech stock selling and brought the S&P 500 back to a .1% gain for the week. Christmas week is generally a good week for stocks with investors in a holiday mood, and this year was no exception. With just a half day of trading on Christmas Eve and many market participants gone on Friday, the importance of the 1.4% gain for the week was unclear. The last 3 days of the month are part of what is called the Santa Claus rally, but this year Santa did not come to Wall Street and the month ended with the S&P 500 on a 4-day losing streak and its first down month since March.

January has historically been the 3rd best month for stocks. It is the only month where every 401k participant, even the wealthiest, contributes to their plan. As a result, it is the month with the largest market inflows which should boost stocks. Many of us are paid bi-monthly, which means mutual fund companies do not see the massive inflow of funds until late in the month. As a result, the month isn’t necessarily influenced by the flow of funds in the early going, and just because a mutual fund company receives large deposits doesn’t mean they put the month to work immediately. Regardless, investors know funds are eventually flooding into the market, and that often leads to a good month. For several months we have been noting stock valuations are extended and a pullback can come at any point. We would use a tradeable decline to increase our exposure to equities. Happy New Year!

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. You can also listen to us on iHeart radio, follow us on Twitter@gbergfinancial or on Facebook under Greenberg Financial Group. Previous radio shows are available by going to www.iheart.com or using the iHeart app and typing Money Matters with Dean Greenberg.

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