08/28/2026
🏠 MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE — FRIDAY, AUGUST 28, 2026 🏠
JACKSON HOLE DAY — THE 10-YEAR TREASURY IS TICKING HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FED
Good morning! Today could be an important day for mortgage rates. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at 10:00 a.m. ET at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, and the bond market is waiting to hear what he says about inflation and future Fed policy.
📈 10-YEAR TREASURY: SLIGHTLY HIGHER
The 10-year Treasury is around 4.68%–4.70% this morning, up slightly in early trading. That's still below last Friday's roughly 4.74%, but the move higher today means some renewed pressure on mortgage pricing.
Remember:
10-Year Treasury ↓ = generally better for mortgage rates.
10-Year Treasury ↑ = generally more mortgage-rate pressure.
🏦 MORTGAGE RATES: A LITTLE BETTER THIS MORNING
There is some encouraging news. Zillow marketplace data put today's average 30-year fixed at about 6.54%, down 3 basis points from yesterday. Another national measure is around 6.67%, illustrating why borrowers shouldn't treat one online average as their personal rate. Actual pricing depends on credit, loan type, down payment, property, points and other factors.
So I'd describe mortgage-rate pressure this morning as:
Slight improvement in recent pricing—but cautious ahead of the Fed.
📉 BOND MARKET: HOLDING ITS BREATH
The bond market's tone is cautious.
Oil prices are heading for their first weekly decline in three weeks, with Brent below $90 this morning. That's helpful because lower energy prices can reduce some inflation pressure. But long-term bond investors remain concerned about persistent inflation, federal debt and Treasury supply.
Today's Fed speech could move the market quickly.
If Warsh sounds more concerned about inflation and open to additional tightening, Treasury yields could move higher.
If he sounds more comfortable with current policy and acknowledges economic slowing, bonds could respond positively.
🏛️ FED & INFLATION: THIS IS TODAY'S BIG STORY
Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and yesterday's slightly hotter PCE numbers haven't made the Fed's job any easier. Markets currently see about a 35% probability of a September rate increase, with another increase essentially priced in by December.
But I'll keep saying this because homebuyers need to understand it:
The Fed does NOT directly set mortgage rates.
What matters to your mortgage is how the bond market reacts to what the Fed says.
📊 STOCK MARKET: MIXED AHEAD OF THE SPEECH
Stocks are cautious this morning after Thursday's technology-led gains. Nvidia's strong outlook helped push the Nasdaq higher yesterday, but futures are mixed today as investors wait for Warsh.
The S&P 500 remains near its all-time high and is up roughly 13% this year, but inflation and the possibility of additional Fed tightening remain risks for stocks as well.
🏡 FOR HOMEBUYERS
We're seeing mortgage rates bounce around within a fairly tight range.
That means don't put your homeownership plans on hold trying to guess tomorrow's rate.
Get fully pre-approved. Know the monthly payment you're comfortable with. Ask about down-payment assistance, seller concessions and temporary rate buydowns.
And remember:
If rates eventually make a meaningful move lower, you won't be the only buyer who notices.
Lower rates can improve affordability—but they can also bring more competition.
🏠 FOR HOMEOWNERS
If you're carrying credit cards at 20%–30%, need money for renovations or want to improve monthly cash flow, don't automatically rule out refinancing because you already have a lower first-mortgage rate.
The question isn't simply:
“Is today's mortgage rate lower than mine?”
The better question is:
“Can restructuring my debt improve my total monthly cash flow and financial position?”
Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't.
Run the numbers first.
🤝 FOR REALTORS
Today is a good reminder to keep your lender involved while buyers are shopping.
A pre-approval might still be valid—but purchasing power changes when rates change.
Before writing an offer this weekend, let's update the payment and make sure the buyer is still comfortable with the numbers.
📌 MY MORTGAGE BROKER TAKE
Here's where we stand this morning:
10-year Treasury: roughly 4.68%–4.70%.
Mortgage pricing: slightly better recently.
Bond market: cautious.
Oil: falling this week.
Inflation: still above target.
Stocks: near record territory.
Fed: Warsh speaks at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Today isn't about whether the Fed changes rates—it doesn't. Today is about what the Fed says and how the bond market reacts.
I'll be watching the 10-year Treasury and mortgage-backed securities after 10:00 a.m.
For buyers, my advice hasn't changed:
Don't try to perfectly time the market. Get prepared, know your payment, understand your options and buy when the right house and the right numbers come together.
📞 Buying • Refinancing • Home Equity • First-Time Buyers • Down-Payment Assistance • Credit Options
Ken Paszkiewicz
Mortgage Broker | HomeLendUSA
📱 248-417-1423
📧 [email protected]
NMLS #138254
Today's market context: Reuters' August 28 global markets report and today's mortgage-rate report.
