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Deric Gurley Home Loans, 1050 Wilshire Drive Suite 300 , MI 48084, Henderson, NV (2026)

11/27/2025

Happy Thanksgiving!

11/14/2025

Buyers aren’t calling the shots yet, but stay tuned

For buyers who hold out hope for buying a home in 2025, it would be great to believe the housing market is about to flip. Realtor.com’s Allaire Conte says take heart — we're living through a market shift right now. Its slow, gentle nature just isn’t making headlines quite yet. So if you're trying to figure out whether now's the time to buy or sell, you're not alone.

She reports that after years of sellers calling all the shots, things are starting to change. Mortgage rates have dipped a bit, and active listings rose 17% year over year in September, marking the 23rd straight monthly gain. The typical home now sits for 62 days on the market—a full week longer than last year—and approximately 1 in 5 listings are cutting prices. But don't pop the Dom Perignon yet, as inventory bubbles still pop in territory significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels.

You may have forgotten what a seller's market looks like. Conte defines it as (1) there are fewer than 6 months of available housing inventory, (2) homes sell at or above asking price, (3) days on market are low (4) bidding wars become the norm again. If it all sounds familiar, it’s because most of the country has been stuck in this pattern since the early 2010s, when new-home construction never caught up after the 2008 financial crisis.

Realtor’s Chief Economist Danielle Hale noted as long ago as July that the balance of power in the housing market keeps shifting in favor of homebuyers. A report a month before that confirmed that growing inventory, price cuts, and slower-moving homes had given buyers more leverage than they'd had in years. Still, we're not swimming in buyer-market territory quite yet. Mortgage rates remain high, and list prices are holding steady, even growing a tad year over year. Think of it as “buyer-smiley” rather than buyer-controlled.

National averages don't tell the whole story, however, according to Conte. One Atlanta-based Realtor she consulted with says her last listing went under contract in 16 days, with another buyer's home selling in just 2 days. Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, suggests checking your local median “days on market” as well as the percentage of listings with price cuts to gauge your specific market.

For sellers, this isn't necessarily bad news. Strategic pricing, professional staging, and good timing can still generate multiple offers. For buyers, getting pre-approved, staying flexible with contingencies, and using escalation clauses wisely can help you compete without overpaying.

As Krimmel puts it, "The market is becoming relatively less favorable to sellers, but it’s still a seller's market in an absolute sense." Translation? The pendulum is swinging, but don’t take any bets on how far and how fast quite yet.

Realtor, TBWS

07/15/2025

Mortgage Applications Jumped Last Week

What a difference a day makes. A small-but-brief drop in interest rates can make one big ripple even when there is an otherwise tepid mortgage demand.

Realtor.com’s Diana Olick reports that total mortgage application volume jumped 9.4% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), resulting in an adjustment for the July Fourth holiday.

The average contract interest rate was the lowest level in three months, accompanied by a 9% jump in refinance applications — 56% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinance demand has been particularly weak because mortgage rates were stuck at high levels for so long.

That 9% was mirrored by the same increase in mortgage loan applications for the week and was 25% higher than the same week one year ago.

She cites the MBA’s Joel Kan, who says, “Homebuyer demand is being fueled by increasing housing inventory and moderating home-price growth. The average loan size on a purchase application, at $432,600, was at its lowest since January 2025.”

It’s a much trickier market than those in the past, says Olick. “While purchase mortgage demand has historically trended pretty closely with actual home sales, there are a lot of unusual factors in today’s market. Consumer sentiment is unsteady, and cancellation rates on contracts have been high for both new and existing homes,” she says. “So far, pending sales, which represent signed contracts, have not been rising along with mortgage demand.”

She also reports that mortgage rates began climbing again just before the July Fourth holiday, and are up again this week so far. “It may not, however, be a sign of a stronger move higher.”

It’s not a matter of what goes up must come down, according to Mortgage Daily News’ Matthew Graham. “We often tend to see slightly brisk movement in the opposite direction after experiencing a consistent trend in the other direction. The month of June was arguably such a trend, and it took rates to their lowest levels in several months. Apart from the last few days of June, today’s rates are still the lowest since late April.”

What comes next? Anybody’s ballgame.

Realtor, TBWS

06/30/2025

Slim pickings begone

At last. Your agent is telling you that she can line up more than one or two listings for you to tour in a day. Why? Fresh listings are there for the taking, with actual time to make a decision because of a slower pace of activity after what seems like an unending sellers’ market.

While it’s not time yet for glass-half-full or full house analogies, according to Realtor.com’s Snejana Farberov, things are gradually looking up after a sluggish spring season, citing more than one million for-sale homes on the market across the U.S. Another bit of welcome news? Buyer confidence in the U.S. housing market has been on an upward trajectory, boosted by better-than-expected job and inflation reports.

It’s important not to misinterpret, however. Major affordability challenges exist and persist, driven in part by mortgage rates stuck in the mud with no tow truck in sight to pull them out, now that the Feds announced they planned to keep rates steady for the foreseeable future.

With new listings ticking up, however (increasing 3.5% from a year ago) buyers stand to gain some negotiating power over the summer months, according to Realtor’s economist Jiyai Xu. "This will be an important trend to watch, especially as regional real estate dynamics diverge and the market gradually shifts back in favor of buyers," notes Xu.

Farberov reports that the overall number of for-sale homes was up 27.5% year over year, marking the 85th straight week of annual gains in inventory.To boot, for the eighth consecutive week, there were more than 1 million listings available nationwide, marking the highest inventory level since December 2019.

Xu is careful to report that while choices for consumers have expanded, overall supply remains well below pre-pandemic levels, especially in the Midwest and Northeast, where new development has been stagnant while demand remains high. Southern metros? They now exceed pre-COVID inventory levels, fueled by faster new construction over the past several years.

“The price of the typical home increased again last week, edging up 0.9% from a year ago—but it was still down 0.3% from the beginning of 2025,” says Farberov. “The median listing price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.7% year over year.”

Xu adds, ”With inventory growing, and 1 in 5 sellers slashing prices, the pendulum is swinging back toward a balanced market, as price growth slows and buyers gain more leverage.” He also reports that homes spent five days longer than a year ago waiting for a buyer to come along and close the deal, signaling that the pace of the housing market continued to ease annually.

While the typical listing lingered unsold for 53 days last week (about the same as six years ago), it’s interesting to note that (for context) when America's housing stock was at its lowest in the spring of 2022, median time on market was as low as 28 days. No one is talking about seeing that number again anytime soon, but the rule usually says that the longer homes remain unsold, the more likely price drops will result. Time to see if that rule holds water.

Realtor, TBWS

05/06/2025

Market pendulum swings toward spring homebuyers

When Real Estate News’ Dave Gallagher asked the question, “Is it starting to look rosy for buyers this spring?,” he was referring to how the intensity appears to be dialing back in the Mid-Atlantic real estate market. Good news for homebuyers who want to solidify a deal this spring.

“A new Bright MLS survey conducted among about 3,000 agents found that fewer bidding wars took place in the region — which includes Washington, D.C. — during the first quarter of 2025,” says Gallagher.”With inventory on the rise, this spring has been favorable for buyers.”

He also quotes Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant who says, ”While it's not officially a buyer's market yet, the pendulum is clearly swinging away from the intensely competitive conditions of recent years. Buyers are seeing more options and facing fewer obstacles compared to this time last year."

For a number of buyers, it's evidently not taking as long this year to find a home. “Nearly 40% of those who closed on a home during the first three months of 2025 searched for less than a month — double the share who spent the same amount of time house hunting during the first quarter of 2024, the survey found,” says Gallagher.

A good 50% of buyers only had to make one offer to snag a home — another increase that signals buyer conditions are easing, he reports. Sturdevant agrees: "This marks a notable change from the past few years, when buyers were competing over a dearth of inventory and typically had to make offers on multiple homes before they reached the settlement table.”

For first time buyers, however, it’s still not a cakewalk. Just 43% closed on a home after making just one offer, compared to 51% of repeat buyers.

Are these lucky buyers getting everything they want? Well. Not everything. “Compromises remain necessary,” says Gallagher: “Though competition appeared to be easing for buyers, nearly half (45%) still said they made compromises on their home wish list, with location serving as the most common trade-off buyers made, followed by home quality and price.”

And those who settle for homes "as is" means those buyers felt lingering competition pressure and concern about missing out, according to Sturtevant, who adds that high rates are discouraging fewer buyers.

Interestingly enough, mortgage rates might not need to fall much in order to get buyers off the sidelines, says Gallagher. “More than 80% of agent survey respondents said the buyers they worked with found it ‘very easy or ‘somewhat easy’ to qualify for a mortgage.” Add to that the fact that 42% fewer potential buyers this year hit pause on their search for a home, and it appears a shift is indeed occurring. That number is being compared with nearly 60% of buyers who gave up during the first quarter of 2024.

If rates continue to decline, "that could be enough, along with more inventory, to entice more buyers into the market this spring," Sturtevant wrote.

RealEstateNews, TBWS

11/21/2024

‘Build to rent’ is now taking over parts of the U.S.

Business Insider’s James Rodriguez says home builders have too many new homes on their hands these days.

“Thanks to a construction boom years in the making, homebuilders are sitting on more newly completed homes than at any point since 2009, when the market was reeling from the global financial crisis,” he says. “Despite the hefty ready-to-sell supply, a sizable chunk of those homes may never be sold to regular buyers. That strange reality says a lot about the hurdles for would-be homeowners right now.”

Rodriguez reports that homebuilders and buyers are navigating a complex market as housing prices continue rising across most of the country. While mortgage rates briefly declined over the summer, they quickly jumped nearly a full percentage point in just one month. According to John Burns Research and Consulting, buying a starter home is now about 45% more expensive than renting, far exceeding the historical average gap of 15%.

"Builders will try a lot of other things first," says Keith Hughes, an executive at housing research firm Zonda, referring to alternatives to price cuts. "And we're not seeing drastic price drops virtually anywhere.”

The market has shifted significantly. There were 108,000 finished homes for sale at September's end, 48% more than the previous year. Additionally, 258,000 homes were under construction but unsold, compared to 194,000 in 2019.

Rather than slash prices, builders are exploring other options. Lennar, a major homebuilder, offered average sales incentives of $48,100 per home from June through August, up from $36,400 the previous year. They're also building smaller homes and turning to the rental market.

"I think investors are more or less saying to themselves, we're providing a solution here for builders, and that solution is inventory management and getting out of inventory that otherwise they're having trouble selling," explains Adam Stern, founder and CEO of Strata SFR.

Rodriguez adds that the rental strategy has gained traction. D.R. Horton, the nation's largest homebuilder, reported about $800 million in single-family-rental property on its balance sheet, including 3,140 homes and 1,900 buildable lots. According to Forecasa, investors purchased 3-5% of builder-sold homes in the past three months, up from about 1% a year ago.

"It may seem like a small percentage, but if you think about just the sheer volume of properties that are being moved, it's a fairly large number, especially because it's growing," notes Sean Morgan, Forecasa's CEO.

Some builders are opting to hold properties and rent them out until market conditions improve. "They know if they work on a rental campaign, they've got an exit," says Ray Sturm, managing partner of Tower1.

The situation reflects broader housing market challenges, according to Rodriguez, who cites CoreLogic's chief economist Selma Hepp: "The market is in limbo. It's sitting on the sidelines. It's waiting."

The rental trend points to persistent affordability issues for buyers. With existing homeowners reluctant to sell and mortgage rates remaining high, many potential buyers are forced to rent. Redfin data shows renter households are growing three times faster than homeowner households.

BusinessInsider, TBWS

11/13/2024

This Week's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market improved by +49 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Higher

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) Retail Sales and 3) The Fed.

1) Inflation: We will get CPI and PPI this week. Both are expected to rise over their prior readings. The bond market will be paying close attention to the YOY and rolling 3 month averages in the Core readings.

2) Retail Sales: The October data will hit on Friday. The stronger this report it, the worse it will be for rates and vice versa.

3) The Talking Fed: We will hear from a ton of FOMC members this week including Powell.

11/12 Waller, Kashkari, Harker
11/13 Logan, Musalem, Schmid
11/14 Powell, Williams

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are under heavy pressure. Volatility has started at moderate levels and will likely increase this week on inflation data and Fed comments.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional Deric Gurley to discuss it with them.

11/06/2024

Housing Market Shift: Listings Soar to Pre-Pandemic Levels

Even if home prices have not fallen, it might be good to know that you’ve got more choices than a year ago. Realtor.com’s Julie Taylor reports the number of homes for sale is the highest since 2019, including in pandemic “boomtowns.”

The total number of homes for sale in October was 29.2% higher than the year before, marking the 12th consecutive month of growth. “Sellers continued to increase their activity this October. Total active listings increased to highs not seen since before the pandemic,” says Realtor.com® senior economist Ralph McLaughlin in a new monthly housing report. “We noted last month that the sharp decrease in mortgage rates in mid-August could lead to an increase in listings in the coming months as lower rates begin to entice the marginal homeowner to sell.”

Active home listings are up in all four regions of the U.S., the South in the lead with a whopping 34.0% increase, closely followed by the West at 33.6%, the Midwest at 19.8%, and the Northeast, which still saw a healthy uptick of 14.3%.

Taylor reports that Southern boomtowns that rose to prominence during the pandemic are once again making waves—with welcome surges in housing stock. Austin, TX, tops the list with a 40.1% jump in inventory, trailed by Memphis, TN, (+39.2%); and Orlando, FL, (+26.6%). These metro areas now boast listings that have surpassed pre-pandemic levels—a notable shift.

Metros that saw the largest increases in the number of homes for sale included San Diego, CA, at 63.5%; Seattle, WA, at 60.5%; and Denver, CO, at 59.5%.

Taylor also reports that home shoppers in search of fresh listings will have the most luck in the West, where there are 7.0% more newly listed homes than in October 2023. New listings also grew by 5.1% in the Midwest, 3.2% in the Northeast, and 2.9% in the South.
The metros that saw the largest increase in fresh listings compared with last year included Baltimore, MD, Washington, D.C., and Seattle.

“November and December are usually some of the colder months in the housing market, but it’s possible we’ll also see an increase in listing activity in these months after the uncertainty of the presidential election subsides,” says McLaughlin.

In a blow to budget-minded buyers, the median price per square foot continued to rise, increasing 2.1% in October compared with the year prior. Meanwhile, the price per square foot grew by an astonishing 50.5% on average since October 2019.

Bidding wars may still exist, but not in the numbers we recall from pandemic times. It seems that buyers may be able to take their time making an offer. As a result, the typical home spent 58 days on the market in October, eight days longer than the same time last year.

As for waiting to see what’s next, buyers who’ve been on the fence about entering the market may not want to take too long on their home-shopping journey, as the competition is poised to increase, according to McLaughlin. “Since most sellers also become buyers, an increase in new listings also means that there’s an increase in buyers,” he says. “We now expect homebuying activity to begin to tick higher on a year-over-basis through November and December, both because of falling rates as well as a low 2023 benchmark.”

Realtor, TBWS

09/23/2024

The shifting landscape of the US housing market

What goes around comes around. As Realtor.com’s Julie Gerstein reports, after years of battling tight inventory and skyrocketing prices, homebuyers are finally starting to see the tables turn.

In a remarkable turn of events, the US housing market has witnessed a dramatic increase in available homes for sale. From a mere 350,000 houses on the market in 2022, when interest rates were at a historic low of 3%, the number has skyrocketed to approximately 910,000 homes in 2024.

This surge can be attributed to several factors, with new construction playing a significant role. The National Association of Realtors projects a 4.7% increase in single-family housing starts this year, followed by a 4.2% rise next year. However, new builds aren't the only contributor to this trend. Overall housing stock has seen a 35.8% year-over-year increase, reaching levels not seen since May 2020. This expanded inventory offers relief to potential buyers, providing more options and increased negotiating power.

Not surprisingly, the pace of sales has also slowed, with homes now spending an average of 53 days on the market - a week longer than the previous year. This shift has compelled sellers to adjust their expectations and make concessions. August saw the highest share of listings with price cuts in over five years, reaching 19.3%.

Despite an overall 1.3% year-over-year decrease in median home prices (now at $429,990), the cost per square foot has actually risen by 2.3%. This suggests that while prices may appear more attractive, buyers are getting less space for their money.

The inventory surge has been particularly notable in certain regions. The South led with a 45.6% increase in listings, followed by the West at 34.5%, the Midwest at 23.1%, and the Northeast at 13.9%. Among major metropolitan areas, Tampa, San Diego, and Orlando experienced the most significant inventory growth.

This shift in the market dynamics extends beyond just home buyers. The rental market is also feeling the effects of increased inventory. As more properties become available, landlords and property managers may need to offer incentives or reduced rents to fill vacancies. For those considering a home purchase, the current market presents a unique opportunity. With a growing supply of homes, buyers now have more leverage than they've had in years.

As we navigate this evolving landscape, one thing is clear: the US housing market is undergoing a significant transformation. In the words of Dorothy from The Wizard of Oz," "There's no place like home" - and now, there are more homes to choose from than ever before.

Realtor, TBWS Group

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